Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Lamont  (CON)
County/Area: Borders (Scotland)
Electorate: 73,812
Turnout: 74.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,38953.7%
SNP17,93932.7%
LAB4,7738.7%
LIB2,6754.9%
CON Majority11,45020.9%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerCONSNPCON
Economic Position2° Right14° Left
National Position11° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %43%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education34%36%39%
Good Job44%49%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age52.248.748.5
ABC1 Class44%50%53%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk ranks #486 for "Leave", #292 for "Right" and #475 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,253Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,429638227001,610005,904
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District11,290Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,2811,166272003,359008,078
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm7,369Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,92159788001,667005,273
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,807Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,858523187001,302004,870
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District7,034Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,901274226001,631005,032
Scottish BordersKelso and District7,793Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,493216427001,440005,576
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,408Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,097552281002,086006,016
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire7,967Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,214160350001,976005,700
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,585Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,782333387001,926005,428
Scottish BordersTweeddale East686Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk23859370015700491
 Total73,192 28,2144,5182,4820017,1540052,368

The full details of these calculations are given on the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,753Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East4,626980199001,251007,056
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,306Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East4,271862205002,119007,457
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,422Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,8551,914340002,155008,264
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,044Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries
633348600493001,480
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,875Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,1871,25625001,507004,975
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,245Galloway and Dumfries6554293300507001,624
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,322Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk;
Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale
2,584568422001,725005,299
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,608Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale2,668419560001,858005,505
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,360Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,909544152001,998004,603
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,737Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East7897836001,126002,704
 Total67,672 24,1778,1031,9480014,7390048,967

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

The new seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Scottish BordersEast Berwickshire8,133Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,429638227001,610005,904
Scottish BordersGalashiels and District9,948Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,2811,166272003,359008,078
Scottish BordersHawick and Denholm6,698Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,92159788001,667005,273
Scottish BordersHawick and Hermitage6,630Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,858523187001,302004,870
Scottish BordersJedburgh and District6,816Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,901274226001,631005,032
Scottish BordersKelso and District7,992Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,493216427001,440005,576
Scottish BordersLeaderdale and Melrose8,170Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,097552281002,086006,016
Scottish BordersMid Berwickshire7,928Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk3,214160350001,976005,700
Scottish BordersSelkirkshire7,411Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk2,782333387001,926005,428
Scottish BordersTweeddale East3,387Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale1,17126019100781002,403
Scottish BordersTweeddale East699Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk24254390016100496
 Total73,812 29,3894,7732,6750017,9390054,776

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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