Bexley and Sidcup: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bexley and Sidcup: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: James Brokenshire  (CON)
County/Area: Bexley (London)
Electorate: 72,341
Turnout: 73.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,98862.5%
LAB14,85828.1%
UKIP1,8733.5%
LIB1,8723.5%
Green8571.6%
OTH3720.7%
CON Majority18,13034.3%

See overview of other seats in London.

Bexley and Sidcup : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bexley and Sidcup constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position28° Right11° Right
National Position8° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %60%40%52%
British Identity24%38%29%
Good Health44%50%48%
UK Born96%64%88%
Good Education34%48%39%
Good Job39%61%51%
High SEC42%55%51%
Average Age53.244.148.5
ABC1 Class40%62%53%

Bexley and Sidcup ranks #142 for "Leave", #1 for "Right" and #457 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bexley and Sidcup: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bexley and Sidcup been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bexley and Sidcup

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bexleyheath and Crayford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bexleyheath and Crayford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bexleyheath and CrayfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BexleyBarnehurst7,878Bexley and Sidcup3,2681,5331594334300155,451
BexleyBrampton7,881Erith and Crayford3,5721,5261261911100265,452
BexleyChristchurch8,297Bexley and Sidcup3,4951,6393281915800295,740
BexleyColyers7,478Erith and Crayford2,5582,182852634500415,174
BexleyCrayford8,446Erith and Crayford3,2312,265661864900475,844
BexleyDanson Park8,187Bexley and Sidcup3,5441,6452241982200325,665
BexleyNorth End8,743Erith and Crayford2,1403,2174523335600576,048
BexleySt Michael's8,406Erith and Crayford3,3042,0331702491800415,815
 Total65,316 25,11216,0401,2031,9446020028845,189

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bexleyheath and Crayford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Old Bexley and Sidcup

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Old Bexley and SidcupTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BexleyBlackfen and Lamorbey8,145Bexley and Sidcup3,5371,81616126630001195,929
BexleyBlendon and Penhill8,360Bexley and Sidcup4,0291,6041112742600416,085
BexleyCray Meadows8,582Bexley and Sidcup3,6672,0931402465300486,247
BexleyEast Wickham8,319Eltham and Welling3,3022,1311863274300676,056
BexleyFalconwood and Welling8,277Eltham and Welling3,5611,9082262414400466,026
BexleyLonglands7,973Bexley and Sidcup3,5861,6773101297900235,804
BexleySidcup8,324Bexley and Sidcup3,9291,53620610724600356,059
BexleySt Mary's8,022Bexley and Sidcup3,9331,3152332930000305,840
 Total66,002 29,54414,0801,5731,6198210040948,046

The full details of these calculations are given on the Old Bexley and Sidcup seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bexley and Sidcup

The new seat of Bexley and Sidcup is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bexley and Sidcup
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BexleyBarnehurst8,017Bexleyheath and Crayford3,2681,5331594334300155,451
BexleyBlackfen and Lamorbey7,845Old Bexley and Sidcup3,5371,81616126630001195,929
BexleyBlendon and Penhill8,100Old Bexley and Sidcup4,0291,6041112742600416,085
BexleyChristchurch8,117Bexleyheath and Crayford3,4951,6393281915800295,740
BexleyCray Meadows8,012Old Bexley and Sidcup3,6672,0931402465300486,247
BexleyDanson Park7,845Bexleyheath and Crayford3,5441,6452241982200325,665
BexleyLonglands7,828Old Bexley and Sidcup3,5861,6773101297900235,804
BexleySidcup8,348Old Bexley and Sidcup3,9291,53620610724600356,059
BexleySt Mary's8,229Old Bexley and Sidcup3,9331,3152332930000305,840
 Total72,341 32,98814,8581,8721,8738570037252,820

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bexley and Sidcup.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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