Billingham and Sedgefield: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Billingham and Sedgefield: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Phil Wilson  (LAB)
County/Area: Durham (North East)
Electorate: 78,205
Turnout: 65.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB28,24955.3%
CON19,77938.7%
UKIP1,7243.4%
LIB7971.6%
Green4911.0%
OTH530.1%
LAB Majority8,47016.6%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Billingham and Sedgefield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Billingham and Sedgefield constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position6° Left8° Left
National Position8° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %63%58%52%
British Identity44%26%29%
Good Health48%44%48%
UK Born72%95%88%
Good Education47%35%39%
Good Job60%46%51%
High SEC48%44%51%
Average Age43.349.048.5
ABC1 Class57%47%53%

Billingham and Sedgefield ranks #97 for "Leave", #443 for "Right" and #170 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Billingham and Sedgefield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Billingham and Sedgefield been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Billingham and Sedgefield

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bishop Auckland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bishop Auckland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bishop AucklandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBarnard Castle East6,494Bishop Auckland2,7321,284890000504,155
DurhamBarnard Castle West6,632Bishop Auckland3,1029431560000424,243
DurhamBishop Auckland Town6,033Bishop Auckland1,9531,61218700001073,859
DurhamCoundon3,281Bishop Auckland7761,234240000662,100
DurhamEvenwood6,289Bishop Auckland2,0561,873500000444,023
DurhamFerryhill899Billingham and Sedgefield2602863000025574
DurhamShildon and Dene Valley10,305Bishop Auckland2,3193,83727100001666,593
DurhamSpennymoor8,309Bishop Auckland2,3042,64819500001685,315
DurhamTudhoe6,161Bishop Auckland1,5912,1785400001173,940
DurhamWest Auckland6,609Bishop Auckland1,8082,305210000934,227
DurhamWoodhouse Close6,648Bishop Auckland1,4042,60812700001144,253
 Total67,660 20,30520,8081,177000099243,282

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bishop Auckland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Durham, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham, City ofTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBelmont10,250Durham, City of, and Easington2,1923,7707218193001056,962
DurhamBrandon7,210Durham North West9203,64425057500234,899
DurhamCoxhoe8,942Billingham and Sedgefield1,3384,363228112600286,075
DurhamDeerness8,338Durham North West1,3313,8093011146001045,665
DurhamDurham South2,737Durham, City of, and Easington7326803717630061,859
DurhamElvet and Gilesgate6,708Durham, City of, and Easington1,6071,91064313324100234,557
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert1,931Durham North West34269511515220061,312
DurhamFramwellgate and Newton Hall10,407Durham North and Chester-le-Street2,5303,1719392875400907,071
DurhamNeville's Cross7,428Durham, City of, and Easington2,0781,7828351632200135,046
DurhamSherburn6,384Durham, City of, and Easington1,2532,553374111600394,336
DurhamTrimdon and Thornley490Durham, City of, and Easington242615410001332
DurhamWillington and Hunwick307Bishop Auckland60134560004209
 Total71,132 14,40726,7724,7871,1177980044248,323

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sedgefield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sedgefield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SedgefieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale21Darlington6600100013
DarlingtonHeighington and Coniscliffe3,326Darlington1,514541910910002,165
DarlingtonHurworth2,708Darlington752416406231660001,763
DarlingtonPark East146Darlington274858600094
DarlingtonSadberge and Middleton St George4,530Darlington1,92375757127850002,949
DurhamAycliffe East6,320Billingham and Sedgefield1,6352,20023175810004,114
DurhamAycliffe North and Middridge8,010Billingham and Sedgefield2,0483,0302866420005,214
DurhamAycliffe West6,173Billingham and Sedgefield1,5562,23653130450004,020
DurhamBishop Middleham and Cornforth2,873Billingham and Sedgefield5111,2841342190001,869
DurhamBlackhalls839Hartlepool1543651224000546
DurhamChilton2,977Billingham and Sedgefield6531,13927103160001,938
DurhamFerryhill7,544Billingham and Sedgefield2,0862,50677202400004,911
DurhamSedgefield6,221Billingham and Sedgefield1,9741,8968862310004,051
DurhamTrimdon and Thornley9,019Durham, City of, and Easington7244,3797725360005,871
DurhamWingate3,183Hartlepool5791,399269230002,072
 Total63,890 16,14222,2027961,76468600041,590

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sedgefield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stockton North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stockton North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stockton NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham Central5,224Billingham and Sedgefield9352,077156167330003,368
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham East5,294Billingham and Sedgefield9282,166112031050003,413
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham North6,596Billingham and Sedgefield2,1051,95125148240004,253
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham South4,863Billingham and Sedgefield1,1631,75917166300003,135
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham West4,033Billingham and Sedgefield1,50093434117150002,600
Stockton-on-TeesHardwick and Salters Lane5,117Stockton and Yarm8142,30742126100003,299
Stockton-on-TeesNewtown5,358Stockton and Yarm1,0052,2768147180003,454
Stockton-on-TeesNorthern Parishes2,418Billingham and Sedgefield1,087422143140001,558
Stockton-on-TeesNorton North4,977Stockton and Yarm9902,05730120110003,208
Stockton-on-TeesNorton South5,379Stockton and Yarm1,0892,049141172170003,468
Stockton-on-TeesNorton West4,526Stockton and Yarm1,3461,4345661210002,918
Stockton-on-TeesRoseworth5,223Stockton and Yarm9032,22013214160003,366
Stockton-on-TeesStockton Town Centre4,811Stockton and Yarm7362,17147110380003,102
Stockton-on-TeesWestern Parishes2,459Stockton and Yarm9874795152170001,586
 Total66,278 15,58824,3026451,83435900042,728

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stockton North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Billingham and Sedgefield

The new seat of Billingham and Sedgefield is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Billingham and Sedgefield
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamAycliffe East6,240Sedgefield1,6352,20023175810004,114
DurhamAycliffe North and Middridge7,790Sedgefield2,0483,0302866420005,214
DurhamAycliffe West5,403Sedgefield1,5562,23653130450004,020
DurhamBishop Middleham and Cornforth2,937Sedgefield5111,2841342190001,869
DurhamChilton2,970Sedgefield6531,13927103160001,938
DurhamCoxhoe9,280Durham, City of1,3384,363228112600286,075
DurhamFerryhill868Bishop Auckland2502979224003585
DurhamFerryhill7,283Sedgefield2,0962,495711803600224,900
DurhamSedgefield6,274Sedgefield1,9741,8968862310004,051
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham Central5,136Stockton North9352,077156167330003,368
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham East4,935Stockton North9282,166112031050003,413
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham North6,943Stockton North2,1051,95125148240004,253
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham South4,671Stockton North1,1631,75917166300003,135
Stockton-on-TeesBillingham West4,521Stockton North1,50093434117150002,600
Stockton-on-TeesNorthern Parishes2,954Stockton North1,087422143140001,558
 Total78,205 19,77928,2497971,724491005351,093

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Billingham and Sedgefield.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)