Blaydon: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Blaydon: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Liz Twist  (LAB)
County/Area: Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate: 75,601
Turnout: 73.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB32,63659.1%
CON15,15327.4%
LIB4,0327.3%
UKIP2,7965.1%
Green4480.8%
OTH1640.3%
LAB Majority17,48331.7%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Blaydon : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Blaydon constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position12° Left8° Left
National Position3° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%58%52%
British Identity26%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born92%95%88%
Good Education32%35%39%
Good Job46%46%51%
High SEC43%44%51%
Average Age49.349.048.5
ABC1 Class45%47%53%

Blaydon ranks #186 for "Leave", #517 for "Right" and #278 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Blaydon: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Blaydon been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Blaydon

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Blaydon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Blaydon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BlaydonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadBirtley6,570Sunderland West1,3002,8451861642900914,615
GatesheadBlaydon7,768Blaydon1,3313,548332145910085,455
GatesheadChopwell and Rowlands Gill7,295Durham West and Teesdale1,2253,23137813714400105,125
GatesheadCrawcrook and Greenside6,793Blaydon1,1462,8693742858200164,772
GatesheadDunston Hill and Whickham East6,935Blaydon1,4942,394707235340074,871
GatesheadLamesley6,757Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,2062,9771973162700234,746
GatesheadRyton, Crookhill and Stella6,461Blaydon1,2212,4354913087300124,540
GatesheadWhickham North6,702Blaydon1,4962,274647260240074,708
GatesheadWhickham South and Sunniside6,566Blaydon1,8281,825764166220084,613
GatesheadWinlaton and High Spen6,611Durham West and Teesdale1,2562,5832904425700154,643
 Total68,458 13,50326,9814,3662,4585830019748,088

The full details of these calculations are given on the Blaydon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newcastle upon Tyne Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newcastle upon Tyne Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newcastle upon Tyne CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle upon TyneBenwell and Scotswood7,544Blaydon1,1043,402129370320005,037
Newcastle upon TyneBlakelaw6,837Newcastle upon Tyne North West9903,050215267400004,562
Newcastle upon TyneElswick7,785Blaydon9053,926130203330005,197
Newcastle upon TyneFenham6,582Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,0922,812217238360004,395
Newcastle upon TyneKenton6,882Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,0933,065217183350004,593
Newcastle upon TyneWest Gosforth5,927Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,8451,37265533510003,956
Newcastle upon TyneWestgate6,264Newcastle upon Tyne East1,0932,697137711820004,180
Newcastle upon TyneWingrove7,751Newcastle upon Tyne East1,0133,7471111161860005,173
 Total55,572 9,13524,0711,8111,48159500037,093

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newcastle upon Tyne Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Newcastle upon Tyne North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newcastle upon Tyne North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newcastle upon Tyne NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Newcastle upon TyneCastle7,440Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,9702,8364181483000185,420
Newcastle upon TyneDenton7,625Blaydon1,6303,408186290700305,551
Newcastle upon TyneEast Gosforth7,172Newcastle upon Tyne East1,9462,3915863424200235,222
Newcastle upon TyneFawdon7,506Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,4373,4272782296400295,464
Newcastle upon TyneLemington7,447Blaydon1,4583,505162258700315,421
Newcastle upon TyneNewburn6,954Blaydon1,5403,0501102764300455,064
Newcastle upon TyneParklands7,381Newcastle upon Tyne North West2,6242,059549596600185,375
Newcastle upon TyneWesterhope6,730Newcastle upon Tyne North West2,0342,4269819815001304,901
Newcastle upon TyneWoolsington8,059Newcastle upon Tyne North West1,7403,6261452893900295,868
 Total66,314 16,37926,7282,5321,7815130035348,286

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newcastle upon Tyne North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Blaydon

The new seat of Blaydon is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Blaydon
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GatesheadBlaydon6,953Blaydon1,3313,548332145910085,455
GatesheadCrawcrook and Greenside6,659Blaydon1,1462,8693742858200164,772
GatesheadDunston Hill and Whickham East6,586Blaydon1,4942,394707235340074,871
GatesheadRyton, Crookhill and Stella6,818Blaydon1,2212,4354913087300124,540
GatesheadWhickham North6,307Blaydon1,4962,274647260240074,708
GatesheadWhickham South and Sunniside6,483Blaydon1,8281,825764166220084,613
Newcastle upon TyneBenwell and Scotswood8,020Newcastle upon Tyne Central1,1043,402129370320005,037
Newcastle upon TyneDenton7,356Newcastle upon Tyne North1,6303,408186290700305,551
Newcastle upon TyneElswick6,495Newcastle upon Tyne Central9053,926130203330005,197
Newcastle upon TyneLemington7,030Newcastle upon Tyne North1,4583,505162258700315,421
Newcastle upon TyneNewburn6,894Newcastle upon Tyne North1,5403,0501102764300455,064
 Total75,601 15,15332,6364,0322,7964480016455,229

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Blaydon.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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