Bodmin and St Austell: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bodmin and St Austell: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Steve Double  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 72,375
Turnout: 77.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON27,48749.0%
LIB15,01526.8%
LAB13,40523.9%
OTH1860.3%
Green100.0%
CON Majority12,47222.2%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Bodmin and St Austell : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bodmin and St Austell constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right1° Right
National Position5° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%53%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born90%92%88%
Good Education33%40%39%
Good Job44%50%51%
High SEC48%52%51%
Average Age52.350.548.5
ABC1 Class48%54%53%

Bodmin and St Austell ranks #143 for "Leave", #301 for "Right" and #244 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bodmin and St Austell: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bodmin and St Austell been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bodmin and St Austell

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cornwall North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cornwall North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cornwall NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallAltarnun2,493Cornwall South East1,179247416000021,844
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,679Bodmin and St Austell9705321,2100000102,722
CornwallBodmin St Mary's4,104Bodmin and St Austell1,0867191,2170000153,037
CornwallBodmin St Petroc3,840Bodmin and St Austell1,3154061,1000000212,842
CornwallBude6,363Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,8713442,486000074,708
CornwallCamelford3,144Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,230196894000062,326
CornwallGrenville and Stratton3,560Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,2991571,173000052,634
CornwallLanivet and Blisland3,063Bodmin and St Austell1,2282467820000102,266
CornwallLaunceston Central3,159Bideford, Bude and Launceston832539965000022,338
CornwallLaunceston North and North Petherwin3,682Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,462301954000082,725
CornwallLaunceston South2,908Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,0294077060000112,153
CornwallPadstow3,482Bodmin and St Austell1,3601261,0700000222,578
CornwallPoundstock3,707Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,6282578380000192,742
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,320Bodmin and St Austell1,2452229520000372,456
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,711Bodmin and St Austell1,3421315090000232,005
CornwallSt Teath and St Breward3,115Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,2602877250000332,305
CornwallStokeclimsland3,124Cornwall South East1,5802864160000302,312
CornwallTintagel3,148Bideford, Bude and Launceston1,2161759230000152,329
CornwallWadebridge East3,131Bodmin and St Austell1,2813446620000302,317
CornwallWadebridge West3,117Bodmin and St Austell1,4192316380000182,306
 Total68,850 25,8326,15318,636000032450,945

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cornwall North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Cornwall South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cornwall South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cornwall South EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle1,083Bodmin and St Austell369234189010000802
CornwallCallington3,811Cornwall South East1,6438422570790002,821
CornwallGunnislake and Calstock3,683Cornwall South East1,2271,0693610690002,726
CornwallLiskeard East4,028Cornwall South East1,4228945740920002,982
CornwallLiskeard North1,439Cornwall South East6032212080330001,065
CornwallLiskeard West and Dobwalls3,445Cornwall South East1,0495618640750002,549
CornwallLooe East2,793Cornwall South East1,2944252600890002,068
CornwallLooe West, Lansallos and Lanteglos3,811Cornwall South East1,4984457980790002,820
CornwallLostwithiel3,455Cornwall South East1,6364593890730002,557
CornwallLynher3,426Cornwall South East1,4514235880740002,536
CornwallMenheniot3,252Cornwall South East1,45143639601240002,407
CornwallRame Peninsular3,898Cornwall South East1,6847054320640002,885
CornwallSaltash East3,243Cornwall South East1,3887032500590002,400
CornwallSaltash North3,387Cornwall South East1,2337634630480002,507
CornwallSaltash South3,322Cornwall South East1,1085377950190002,459
CornwallSaltash West3,433Cornwall South East1,3734257210220002,541
CornwallSt Cleer3,675Cornwall South East1,4875435960940002,720
CornwallSt Dominick, Harrowbarrow and Kelly Bray3,299Cornwall South East1,5315413040660002,442
CornwallSt Germans and Landulph3,519Cornwall South East1,5855374130700002,605
CornwallTorpoint East3,098Cornwall South East1,1256315070300002,293
CornwallTorpoint West3,203Cornwall South East1,7672833090120002,371
CornwallTrelawny3,592Cornwall South East1,5663736630560002,658
 Total71,895 29,49012,05010,33701,33700053,214

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cornwall South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: St Austell and Newquay

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of St Austell and Newquay, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: St Austell and NewquayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBugle2,799Bodmin and St Austell839573518000001,930
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,440Bodmin and St Austell1,231468673000002,372
CornwallMevagissey3,213Bodmin and St Austell1,167679370000002,216
CornwallMount Charles3,695Bodmin and St Austell1,231967350000002,548
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern635Truro and Newquay2871014900000437
CornwallNewquay Central3,072Truro and Newquay801526791000002,118
CornwallNewquay Pentire3,197Truro and Newquay1,028293883000002,204
CornwallNewquay Treloggan3,326Truro and Newquay1,112322860000002,294
CornwallNewquay Tretherras2,836Truro and Newquay1,053396506000001,955
CornwallNewquay Treviglas3,289Truro and Newquay1,063657548000002,268
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,018Bodmin and St Austell973479629000002,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,606Bodmin and St Austell1,110677700000002,487
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound547Truro and Newquay2041195300000376
CornwallRoche3,057Bodmin and St Austell1,158772178000002,108
CornwallRoseland82Truro and Newquay341580000057
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,432Bodmin and St Austell1,471653243000002,367
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,747Bodmin and St Austell1,168833583000002,584
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,596Bodmin and St Austell1,385856239000002,480
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,374Bodmin and St Austell860777689000002,326
CornwallSt Blazey3,660Bodmin and St Austell830942752000002,524
CornwallSt Columb Major4,021Truro and Newquay1,377855541000002,773
CornwallSt Dennis and Nanpean3,686Truro and Newquay1,276996271000002,543
CornwallSt Enoder3,597Truro and Newquay1,313897270000002,480
CornwallSt Mawgan and Colan2,806Truro and Newquay1,435325175000001,935
CornwallSt Mewan3,020Bodmin and St Austell1,153405525000002,083
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,866Bodmin and St Austell1,2961,133237000002,666
 Total78,617 26,85515,71611,6410000054,212

The full details of these calculations are given on the St Austell and Newquay seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bodmin and St Austell

The new seat of Bodmin and St Austell is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bodmin and St Austell
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallBodmin St Leonard3,007Cornwall North9705321,2100000102,722
CornwallBodmin St Mary's3,332Cornwall North1,0867191,2170000153,037
CornwallBodmin St Petroc3,593Cornwall North1,3154061,1000000212,842
CornwallBugle930Cornwall South East33722519703000762
CornwallBugle2,403St Austell and Newquay871582510070001,970
CornwallFowey and Tywardreath3,167St Austell and Newquay1,231468673000002,372
CornwallLanivet and Blisland3,056Cornwall North1,2282467820000102,266
CornwallMevagissey3,086St Austell and Newquay1,167679370000002,216
CornwallMount Charles3,219St Austell and Newquay1,231967350000002,548
CornwallPadstow3,063Cornwall North1,3601261,0700000222,578
CornwallPar and St Blazey Gate3,016St Austell and Newquay973479629000002,081
CornwallPenwithick and Boscoppa3,309St Austell and Newquay1,110677700000002,487
CornwallRoche2,831St Austell and Newquay1,158772178000002,108
CornwallSt Austell Bay3,608St Austell and Newquay1,471653243000002,367
CornwallSt Austell Bethel3,499St Austell and Newquay1,168833583000002,584
CornwallSt Austell Gover3,055St Austell and Newquay1,385856239000002,480
CornwallSt Austell Poltair3,256St Austell and Newquay860777689000002,326
CornwallSt Blazey2,986St Austell and Newquay830942752000002,524
CornwallSt Issey and St Tudy3,305Cornwall North1,2452229520000372,456
CornwallSt Mewan2,967St Austell and Newquay1,153405525000002,083
CornwallSt Minver and St Endellion2,394Cornwall North1,3421315090000232,005
CornwallSt Stephen-In-Brannel3,456St Austell and Newquay1,2961,133237000002,666
CornwallWadebridge East3,022Cornwall North1,2813446620000302,317
CornwallWadebridge West2,815Cornwall North1,4192316380000182,306
 Total72,375 27,48713,40515,0150100018656,103

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bodmin and St Austell.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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