Bolsover: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bolsover: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Dennis Skinner  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 73,875
Turnout: 67.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,65051.2%
CON20,81241.6%
UKIP1,8743.7%
LIB1,2982.6%
OTH2400.5%
Green2090.4%
LAB Majority4,8389.7%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Bolsover : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bolsover constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position7° Left3° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %70%59%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health45%45%48%
UK Born85%91%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job46%48%51%
High SEC43%47%51%
Average Age47.449.148.5
ABC1 Class44%50%53%

Bolsover ranks #19 for "Leave", #451 for "Right" and #59 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bolsover: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bolsover been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bolsover

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Amber Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Amber Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Amber ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlfreton6,172Bolsover2,0771,8948107600254,153
Amber ValleyCodnor and Waingroves3,754Amber Valley1,3871,033410700572,525
Amber ValleyHeage and Ambergate3,829Amber Valley1,5038818409100182,577
Amber ValleyHeanor and Loscoe4,122Amber Valley1,4581,16410202400252,773
Amber ValleyHeanor East4,549Amber Valley1,6421,2797304300243,061
Amber ValleyHeanor West4,682Amber Valley1,7591,2668401500263,150
Amber ValleyIronville and Riddings4,442Amber Valley1,5781,3234702300192,990
Amber ValleyKilburn, Denby and Holbrook5,965Amber Valley2,5751,17715608200254,015
Amber ValleyLangley Mill and Aldercar4,172Amber Valley1,4861,2156102200242,808
Amber ValleyRipley6,766Amber Valley2,5771,7539409200384,554
Amber ValleyRipley and Marehay4,621Amber Valley1,8151,1694605600253,111
Amber ValleyShipley Park, Horsley and Horsley Woodhouse4,394Amber Valley2,0677629401500202,958
Amber ValleySomercotes4,912Bolsover1,5081,6925802600213,305
Amber ValleySwanwick3,935Bolsover1,61373449058001942,648
Amber ValleyWingfield1,749Amber Valley858263280190091,177
 Total68,064 25,90317,6051,09806490055045,805

The full details of these calculations are given on the Amber Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Bolsover

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bolsover, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BolsoverTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BolsoverBarlborough2,532Bolsover839717361300001,605
BolsoverBlackwell3,421Bolsover9361,064878000002,167
BolsoverBolsover North West3,129Bolsover7191,127429400001,982
BolsoverBolsover South3,106Bolsover5731,273705100001,967
BolsoverBolsover West2,860Bolsover5439344529000001,812
BolsoverClowne North3,118Bolsover7831,131372500001,976
BolsoverClowne South2,782Bolsover849825404800001,762
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,892Bolsover1,1421,817677200003,098
BolsoverPinxton3,320Bolsover9249977810300002,102
BolsoverPleasley2,975Bolsover5851,206296500001,885
BolsoverScarcliffe3,232Bolsover8101,138623800002,048
BolsoverShirebrook East1,318Bolsover158488231660000835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,491Bolsover167528132370000945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,955Bolsover364784553500001,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,696Bolsover2845502221900001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West2,025Bolsover369863183300001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,582Bolsover1,0111,104738300002,271
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,884Bolsover1,3171,634806200003,093
BolsoverTibshelf3,757Bolsover1,276966894800002,379
BolsoverWhitwell2,979Bolsover1,0037341133800001,888
North East DerbyshireHolmewood and Heath2,873Derbyshire North East6971,009753800001,819
North East DerbyshirePilsley and Morton3,987Derbyshire North East1,3171,0391165500002,527
North East DerbyshireShirland4,342Derbyshire North East1,2991,2104819300002,750
North East DerbyshireSutton3,177Derbyshire North East8991,016544400002,013
 Total73,433 18,86424,1541,3722,130000046,520

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bolsover seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Derbyshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Derbyshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Derbyshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,630Chesterfield1,0241,352481316620003,235
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,672Bolsover9621,4503174490002,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,484Derbyshire North East81618921470001,037
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,513Derbyshire North East7252233659150001,058
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,904Derbyshire North East1,5103912374300002,028
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,559Derbyshire North East1,2331,67246168660003,185
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South3,007Derbyshire North East7081,2525558280002,101
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,618Derbyshire North East1,1225726352210001,830
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,246Derbyshire North East1,1531,0194529220002,268
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,206Derbyshire North East1,7791,045504610002,939
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,782Derbyshire North East1,322536678110001,944
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,856Derbyshire North East84587954182370001,997
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,995Derbyshire North East7751,2043359210002,092
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,992Derbyshire North East1,734927905340002,790
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,044Derbyshire North East7111,18953145300002,128
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,990Derbyshire North East9341,0661452240002,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,481Derbyshire North East1,2651,6915972450003,132
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,553Derbyshire North East1,2301,8182765420003,182
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,141Derbyshire North East630808838120001,496
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,447Derbyshire North East575397119190001,011
North East DerbyshireTupton3,138Derbyshire North East9311,1591852330002,193
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,488Derbyshire North East5753843725190001,040
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,351Derbyshire North East2,2257006915310003,040
 Total72,097 24,78421,9231,3911,56571900050,382

The full details of these calculations are given on the Derbyshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bolsover

The new seat of Bolsover is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bolsover
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Amber ValleyAlfreton5,630Amber Valley2,0771,8948107600254,153
Amber ValleySomercotes4,187Amber Valley1,5081,6925802600213,305
Amber ValleySwanwick4,172Amber Valley1,61373449058001942,648
BolsoverBarlborough2,452Bolsover839717361300001,605
BolsoverBlackwell3,459Bolsover9361,064878000002,167
BolsoverBolsover North West2,889Bolsover7191,127429400001,982
BolsoverBolsover South2,948Bolsover5731,273705100001,967
BolsoverBolsover West2,819Bolsover5439344529000001,812
BolsoverClowne North2,955Bolsover7831,131372500001,976
BolsoverClowne South2,958Bolsover849825404800001,762
BolsoverElmton-with-Creswell4,498Bolsover1,1421,817677200003,098
BolsoverPinxton3,254Bolsover9249977810300002,102
BolsoverPleasley2,977Bolsover5851,206296500001,885
BolsoverScarcliffe3,100Bolsover8101,138623800002,048
BolsoverShirebrook East999Bolsover158488231660000835
BolsoverShirebrook Langwith1,609Bolsover167528132370000945
BolsoverShirebrook North West1,592Bolsover364784553500001,238
BolsoverShirebrook South East1,403Bolsover2845502221900001,075
BolsoverShirebrook South West1,831Bolsover369863183300001,283
BolsoverSouth Normanton East3,370Bolsover1,0111,104738300002,271
BolsoverSouth Normanton West4,618Bolsover1,3171,634806200003,093
BolsoverTibshelf3,806Bolsover1,276966894800002,379
BolsoverWhitwell2,996Bolsover1,0037341133800001,888
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,353Derbyshire North East9621,4503174490002,566
 Total73,875 20,81225,6501,2981,8742090024050,083

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bolsover.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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