Bramhall and Poynton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bramhall and Poynton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 76,106
Turnout: 75.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,89450.0%
LIB14,55125.2%
LAB13,19722.9%
Green5521.0%
OTH5430.9%
CON Majority14,34324.8%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Bramhall and Poynton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bramhall and Poynton constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position7° Right6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health50%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education47%37%39%
Good Job62%49%51%
High SEC66%48%51%
Average Age52.148.648.5
ABC1 Class67%50%53%

Bramhall and Poynton ranks #447 for "Leave", #155 for "Right" and #343 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bramhall and Poynton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bramhall and Poynton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bramhall and Poynton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cheadle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cheadle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CheadleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StockportBramhall North10,547Bramhall and Poynton4,2138702,825000007,908
StockportBramhall South and Woodford9,571Bramhall and Poynton3,9466932,537000007,176
StockportCheadle and Gatley11,720Stockport South and Cheadle3,5311,9363,321000008,788
StockportCheadle Hulme North10,227Stockport South and Cheadle2,7331,9372,998000007,668
StockportCheadle Hulme South10,671Stockport South and Cheadle3,6141,2683,119000008,001
StockportHeald Green10,076Stockport South and Cheadle3,3651,8182,373000007,556
StockportStepping Hill9,968Bramhall and Poynton2,9291,8942,650000007,473
 Total72,780 24,33110,41619,8230000054,570

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cheadle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hazel Grove

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hazel Grove, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hazel GroveTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StockportBredbury and Woodley10,932Marple and Hyde3,1131,8962,6310550007,695
StockportBredbury Green and Romiley11,119Marple and Hyde3,4441,7932,48901010007,827
StockportHazel Grove11,199Bramhall and Poynton3,7941,4612,5420880007,885
StockportMarple North9,569Marple and Hyde3,3099782,34501040006,736
StockportMarple South9,283Marple and Hyde3,3491,0022,07301130006,537
StockportOfferton10,583Bramhall and Poynton3,0371,9052,4530560007,451
 Total62,685 20,0469,03514,533051700044,131

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hazel Grove seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Macclesfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Macclesfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MacclesfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastBollington6,664Macclesfield2,0611,8395820112002174,811
Cheshire EastBroken Cross and Upton6,854Macclesfield2,7701,6942810100001034,948
Cheshire EastDisley3,486Bramhall and Poynton1,4139148507800282,518
Cheshire EastGawsworth3,074Macclesfield1,6564714503100172,220
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Central7,198Macclesfield2,0232,549322021100925,197
Cheshire EastMacclesfield East3,475Macclesfield8911,024419068001072,509
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Hurdsfield3,643Macclesfield8781,41525405700262,630
Cheshire EastMacclesfield South6,998Macclesfield2,2312,412234011700575,051
Cheshire EastMacclesfield Tytherington7,181Macclesfield3,0351,629243098001785,183
Cheshire EastMacclesfield West and Ivy6,644Macclesfield2,1292,38421002100514,795
Cheshire EastPoynton East and Pott Shrigley6,076Bramhall and Poynton2,7561,087337097001094,386
Cheshire EastPoynton West and Adlington7,011Bramhall and Poynton3,1771,3932290135001275,061
Cheshire EastPrestbury3,445Macclesfield1,964468310500192,487
Cheshire EastSutton3,478Macclesfield1,6107077908400302,510
 Total75,227 28,59419,9863,35101,214001,16154,306

The full details of these calculations are given on the Macclesfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tatton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tatton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TattonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,838Macclesfield1,567746337015001142,779
Cheshire EastChelford3,247Macclesfield1,74423928706200192,351
Cheshire EastHandforth7,305Bramhall and Poynton2,1602,241636069001805,286
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,500Altrincham and Tatton Park1,828356129020000202,533
Cheshire EastKnutsford10,614Altrincham and Tatton Park4,9141,8506540131001327,681
Cheshire EastMobberley3,670Altrincham and Tatton Park1,75939046201400302,655
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,585Bramhall and Poynton1,46973925702900992,593
Cheshire EastWilmslow East3,269Macclesfield1,50847925504500792,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,964Macclesfield1,6741,0756302700292,868
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,897Macclesfield3,6581,315438022300825,716
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,718Weaver Vale3,9292,303565016200747,033
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,362Eddisbury and Northwich1,49371317502500282,434
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,905Eddisbury and Northwich1,0611,53217502200362,826
 Total67,874 28,76413,9784,43301,0240092249,121

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tatton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bramhall and Poynton

The new seat of Bramhall and Poynton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bramhall and Poynton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastDisley3,485Macclesfield1,4139148507800282,518
Cheshire EastHandforth6,709Tatton2,1602,241636069001805,286
Cheshire EastPoynton East and Pott Shrigley6,037Macclesfield2,7561,087337097001094,386
Cheshire EastPoynton West and Adlington6,584Macclesfield3,1771,3932290135001275,061
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,294Tatton1,46973925702900992,593
StockportBramhall North10,263Cheadle4,2138702,825000007,908
StockportBramhall South and Woodford9,589Cheadle3,9466932,537000007,176
StockportHazel Grove10,488Hazel Grove3,7941,4612,5420880007,885
StockportOfferton10,016Hazel Grove3,0371,9052,4530560007,451
StockportStepping Hill9,641Cheadle2,9291,8942,650000007,473
 Total76,106 28,89413,19714,55105520054357,737

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bramhall and Poynton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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