Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Chris Davies  (CON)
County/Area: Powys (Wales)
Electorate: 74,902
Turnout: 77.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON29,29750.3%
LIB16,19627.8%
LAB9,84816.9%
Plaid2,1273.7%
UKIP5781.0%
Green2100.4%
CON Majority13,10122.5%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position3° Right10° Left
National Position3° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job43%46%51%
High SEC46%46%51%
Average Age53.149.648.5
ABC1 Class45%47%53%

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery ranks #315 for "Leave", #262 for "Right" and #414 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brecon and Radnorshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brecon and RadnorshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,151Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1694651572003800849
PowysBeguildy1,181Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery616101762104900872
PowysBronllys1,018Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery483282011002800750
PowysBuilth2,081Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery7359861821064001,536
PowysBwlch771Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery2115829900100569
PowysCrickhowell2,352Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4501911,095000001,736
PowysCwm-twrch1,654Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery17384312917059001,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed1,025Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery40774247260300757
PowysFelin-fch1,101Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery57579123802900814
PowysGlasbury1,845Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,0204023611054001,361
PowysGwernyfed1,242Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery61340226703000916
PowysHay1,304Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery7272819460700962
PowysKnighton2,446Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery99111959649050001,805
PowysLlanafanfawr1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery566241751604500826
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr924Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery485311061804100681
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West996Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery322105283701800735
PowysLlandrindod North1,650Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery69420426414041001,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,630Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery63210843216014001,202
PowysLlanelwedd957Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery17018491202500706
PowysLlangattock813Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery32637217801100599
PowysLlangors867Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34625244701800640
PowysLlangunllo989Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery526161431203400731
PowysLlangynidr830Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery385301631502000613
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,511Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery6414336415052001,115
PowysLlanyre919Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery448201423203600678
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,391Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery7356715115059001,027
PowysNantmel1,210Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery628201842303800893
PowysOld Radnor1,276Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery529313441202500941
PowysPresteigne2,196Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery9666549741051001,620
PowysRhayader1,677Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3402735895030001,237
PowysSt David Within1,451Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery44035422715035001,071
PowysSt John2,698Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery49199146212036001,992
PowysSt Mary2,521Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery787475594103001,860
PowysTalgarth1,370Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery251576860016001,010
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,568Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery7341072829025001,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,719Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery45556215929063001,268
PowysYnyscedwyn1,589Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1468659511057001,174
PowysYscir818Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery30228256501200603
PowysYstradgynlais2,151Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery56570619442081001,588
 Total56,010 20,0807,33512,04157801,2980041,332

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brecon and Radnorshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MontgomeryshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1941171390167800544
PowysBerriew1,096Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3821431660224000753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,059221450258001,286
PowysCaersws1,860Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery70519728102174001,278
PowysChurchstoke1,268Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery368116355092400872
PowysDolforwyn1,574Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery62216121401671001,084
PowysForden1,152Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery53388129063600792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North457252253029125001,116
PowysGuilsfield1,854Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North64122131002082001,274
PowysKerry1,636Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery72712122801039001,125
PowysLlanbrynmair730Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2689499073300501
PowysLlandinam1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3781301680256800769
PowysLlandrinio1,727Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58826325702357001,188
PowysLlandysilio1,398Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5032021920263900962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4221553200147500986
PowysLlanfihangel852Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North2711061350136100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58870105076800838
PowysLlanidloes2,292Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery79428638303282001,577
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North9192919601361001,218
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6919722101335001,057
PowysLlanwddyn825Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North234881640166600568
PowysMachynlleth1,784Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North474305283033132001,227
PowysMeifod1,046Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3341381670225700718
PowysMontgomery1,095Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3541651750263400754
PowysNewtown Central2,618Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,2612772420316001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34415648807132001,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4451096420932001,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery75677129091900990
PowysNewtown South1,507Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery29541427301045001,037
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery57619430302599001,197
PowysTrewern1,130Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4501331510172500776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3922092080113900859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6421817050316001,547
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North40822756401042001,251
 Total50,754 18,0755,5438,79005251,9600034,893

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery

The new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysAber-craf1,074Brecon and Radnorshire1694651572003800849
PowysBeguildy1,102Brecon and Radnorshire616101762104900872
PowysBlaen Hafren1,782Montgomeryshire1,059221450258001,286
PowysBronllys950Brecon and Radnorshire483282011002800750
PowysBuilth1,942Brecon and Radnorshire7359861821064001,536
PowysBwlch720Brecon and Radnorshire2115829900100569
PowysCaersws1,712Montgomeryshire70519728102174001,278
PowysChurchstoke1,214Montgomeryshire368116355092400872
PowysCrickhowell2,195Brecon and Radnorshire4501911,095000001,736
PowysCwm-twrch1,544Brecon and Radnorshire17384312917059001,221
PowysDisserth and Trecoed957Brecon and Radnorshire40774247260300757
PowysDolforwyn1,587Montgomeryshire62216121401671001,084
PowysFelin-fch1,028Brecon and Radnorshire57579123802900814
PowysForden1,083Montgomeryshire53388129063600792
PowysGlasbury1,722Brecon and Radnorshire1,0204023611054001,361
PowysGwernyfed1,159Brecon and Radnorshire61340226703000916
PowysHay1,217Brecon and Radnorshire7272819460700962
PowysKerry1,563Montgomeryshire72712122801039001,125
PowysKnighton2,283Brecon and Radnorshire99111959649050001,805
PowysLlanafanfawr1,043Brecon and Radnorshire566241751604500826
PowysLlanbadarn Fawr862Brecon and Radnorshire485311061804100681
PowysLlandinam1,063Montgomeryshire3781301680256800769
PowysLlandrindod East / Llandrindod West930Brecon and Radnorshire322105283701800735
PowysLlandrindod North1,540Brecon and Radnorshire69420426414041001,217
PowysLlandrindod South1,521Brecon and Radnorshire63210843216014001,202
PowysLlanelwedd893Brecon and Radnorshire17018491202500706
PowysLlangattock759Brecon and Radnorshire32637217801100599
PowysLlangors809Brecon and Radnorshire34625244701800640
PowysLlangunllo923Brecon and Radnorshire526161431203400731
PowysLlangynidr775Brecon and Radnorshire385301631502000613
PowysLlanidloes2,070Montgomeryshire79428638303282001,577
PowysLlanwrtyd Wells1,410Brecon and Radnorshire6414336415052001,115
PowysLlanyre858Brecon and Radnorshire448201423203600678
PowysMaescar / Llywel1,298Brecon and Radnorshire7356715115059001,027
PowysMontgomery1,059Montgomeryshire3541651750263400754
PowysNantmel1,129Brecon and Radnorshire628201842303800893
PowysNewtown Central2,103Montgomeryshire1,2612772420316001,799
PowysNewtown East1,391Montgomeryshire34415648807132001,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,726Montgomeryshire4451096420932001,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,361Montgomeryshire75677129091900990
PowysNewtown South1,242Montgomeryshire29541427301045001,037
PowysOld Radnor1,191Brecon and Radnorshire529313441202500941
PowysPresteigne2,049Brecon and Radnorshire9666549741051001,620
PowysRhayader1,565Brecon and Radnorshire3402735895030001,237
PowysRhiwcynon1,674Montgomeryshire57619430302599001,197
PowysSt David Within1,354Brecon and Radnorshire44035422715035001,071
PowysSt John2,518Brecon and Radnorshire49199146212036001,992
PowysSt Mary2,353Brecon and Radnorshire787475594103001,860
PowysTalgarth1,279Brecon and Radnorshire251576860016001,010
PowysTalybont-on-Usk1,463Brecon and Radnorshire7341072829025001,157
PowysTawe-Uchaf1,604Brecon and Radnorshire45556215929063001,268
PowysYnyscedwyn1,483Brecon and Radnorshire1468659511057001,174
PowysYscir763Brecon and Radnorshire30228256501200603
PowysYstradgynlais2,007Brecon and Radnorshire56570619442081001,588
 Total74,902 29,2979,84816,1965782102,1270058,256

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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