Bury St Edmunds: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Bury St Edmunds: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jo Churchill  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 77,733
Turnout: 74.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,46059.7%
LAB17,23129.8%
LIB2,8484.9%
Green2,4044.2%
OTH8111.4%
CON Majority17,22929.8%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Bury St Edmunds : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Bury St Edmunds constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right8° Right
National Position7° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%57%52%
British Identity30%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education46%37%39%
Good Job60%53%51%
High SEC62%53%51%
Average Age50.149.448.5
ABC1 Class64%55%53%

Bury St Edmunds ranks #334 for "Leave", #115 for "Right" and #187 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Bury St Edmunds: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Bury St Edmunds been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Bury St Edmunds

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bury St Edmunds

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bury St Edmunds, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Bury St EdmundsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,872Bury St Edmunds8493036203700761,327
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,053Bury St Edmunds1,0862315706900111,454
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,200Bury St Edmunds1,724797250017900252,975
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,045Bury St Edmunds1,0452334301190091,449
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,683Bury St Edmunds4794792501990091,191
Mid SuffolkNeedham Market3,505Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,18162958107300192,483
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,822Bury St Edmunds6394319701170071,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,615Bury St Edmunds6422222430300081,145
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,507Bury St Edmunds1,751487101012600182,483
Mid SuffolkRingshall2,719Suffolk Central and Ipswich North1,154496137012100191,927
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,444Bury St Edmunds1,379767169010800162,439
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,585Bury St Edmunds3,2631,641176024400495,373
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,853Bury St Edmunds1,28898228408600902,730
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,752Bury St Edmunds7453522101140091,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,393Bury St Edmunds1,58454717708100142,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,536Bury St Edmunds728238340800091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,804Bury St Edmunds1,453844240014300142,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,926Bury St Edmunds737555240410081,365
St EdmundsburyFornham1,561Bury St Edmunds766289240210061,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,693Bury St Edmunds924235160180051,198
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,733Bury St Edmunds821338430190061,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,646Bury St Edmunds1,51284077013800162,583
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall6,141Bury St Edmunds2,9501,080153060001064,349
St EdmundsburyNorthgate2,039Bury St Edmunds686706260190071,444
St EdmundsburyPakenham2,647Bury St Edmunds1,3414572103800171,874
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,930Bury St Edmunds1,2471,1531060173001042,783
St EdmundsburyRougham1,795Bury St Edmunds860370140220071,273
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,518Bury St Edmunds1,59863920803100162,492
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,535Bury St Edmunds1,0361,2617703500952,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,208Bury St Edmunds1,3277548005700542,272
 Total87,760 36,79518,3563,56602,5980084962,164

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bury St Edmunds seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Bury St Edmunds

The new seat of Bury St Edmunds is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Bury St Edmunds
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SuffolkBacton and Old Newton1,925Bury St Edmunds8493036203700761,327
Mid SuffolkBadwell Ash2,140Bury St Edmunds1,0862315706900111,454
Mid SuffolkElmswell and Norton4,195Bury St Edmunds1,724797250017900252,975
Mid SuffolkGislingham2,183Bury St Edmunds1,0452334301190091,449
Mid SuffolkHaughley and Wetherden1,746Bury St Edmunds4794792501990091,191
Mid SuffolkOnehouse1,868Bury St Edmunds6394319701170071,291
Mid SuffolkRattlesden1,684Bury St Edmunds6422222430300081,145
Mid SuffolkRickinghall and Walsham3,652Bury St Edmunds1,751487101012600182,483
Mid SuffolkStowmarket Central3,577Bury St Edmunds1,379767169010800162,439
Mid SuffolkStowmarket North7,465Bury St Edmunds3,2631,641176024400495,373
Mid SuffolkStowmarket South3,708Bury St Edmunds1,28898228408600902,730
Mid SuffolkStowupland1,819Bury St Edmunds7453522101140091,241
Mid SuffolkThurston and Hessett3,481Bury St Edmunds1,58454717708100142,403
Mid SuffolkWoolpit1,619Bury St Edmunds728238340800091,089
St EdmundsburyAbbeygate3,270Bury St Edmunds1,453844240014300142,694
St EdmundsburyEastgate1,691Bury St Edmunds737555240410081,365
St EdmundsburyFornham1,617Bury St Edmunds766289240210061,106
St EdmundsburyGreat Barton1,716Bury St Edmunds924235160180051,198
St EdmundsburyHorringer and Whelnetham1,664Bury St Edmunds821338430190061,227
St EdmundsburyMinden3,287Bury St Edmunds1,51284077013800162,583
St EdmundsburyMoreton Hall5,182Bury St Edmunds2,9501,080153060001064,349
St EdmundsburyNorthgate1,753Bury St Edmunds686706260190071,444
St EdmundsburyPakenham1,907Bury St Edmunds1,3414572103800171,874
St EdmundsburyRisbygate3,248Bury St Edmunds1,2471,1531060173001042,783
St EdmundsburyRougham1,768Bury St Edmunds860370140220071,273
St EdmundsburySouthgate3,274Bury St Edmunds1,59863920803100162,492
St EdmundsburySt Olaves3,080Bury St Edmunds1,0361,2617703500952,504
St EdmundsburyWestgate3,214Bury St Edmunds1,3277548005700542,272
 Total77,733 34,46017,2312,84802,4040081157,754

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Bury St Edmunds.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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