Cambridgeshire North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cambridgeshire North West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Shailesh Vara  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,279
Turnout: 70.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,70659.4%
LAB16,18029.4%
LIB2,8525.2%
UKIP2,3644.3%
Green9531.7%
CON Majority16,52630.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Cambridgeshire North West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cambridgeshire North West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position16° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%57%52%
British Identity25%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born97%89%88%
Good Education34%37%39%
Good Job50%53%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age49.149.448.5
ABC1 Class48%55%53%

Cambridgeshire North West ranks #136 for "Leave", #46 for "Right" and #30 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cambridgeshire North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Cambridgeshire North West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,535Cambridgeshire South East2,085696181101490003,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,375Cambridgeshire North West1,02925830223190001,631
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,991Cambridgeshire North West9363274149140001,367
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,418Cambridgeshire North West2,915941225304210004,406
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,871Cambridgeshire North West2,092852166203300003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,423Cambridgeshire North West2,03671914685500003,036
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East15Huntingdon and St Neots5311000010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South2Huntingdon and St Neots100000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,311Cambridgeshire North West1,1233425952110001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,577Cambridgeshire North West1,22129718445210001,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,622Cambridgeshire North West1,970780250143290003,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,228Cambridgeshire North West3,4101,708174304530005,649
PeterboroughBarnack2,143Cambridgeshire North West1,0543146124160001,469
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,467Peterborough2,7322,643133522520005,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,400Cambridgeshire North West2,356956236128300003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,000Cambridgeshire North West9882355744500001,374
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,599Cambridgeshire North West2,2532,2761853621400005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,184Cambridgeshire North West2,4901,3691541101220004,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,200Cambridgeshire North West3,7752,3444692012130007,002
PeterboroughStanground Central6,568Cambridgeshire North West2,1691,908119227860004,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,293Cambridgeshire North West8885542360480001,573
 Total93,222 37,52819,5223,1662,5181,25400063,988

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Huntingdon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Huntingdon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: HuntingdonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireAlconbury and The Stukeleys2,525Huntingdon and St Neots96647022399290001,787
HuntingdonshireBrampton5,466Huntingdon and St Neots2,061912737116460003,872
HuntingdonshireBuckden2,477Huntingdon and St Neots9926275737410001,754
HuntingdonshireEllington3Cambridgeshire North West101000002
HuntingdonshireFenstanton2,330Huntingdon and St Neots97646014441300001,651
HuntingdonshireGodmanchester5,034Huntingdon and St Neots1,5411,136694129660003,566
HuntingdonshireGransden and The Offords3,489Cambridgeshire South1,91640411917150002,471
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon East7,178Huntingdon and St Neots2,3111,885630194650005,085
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon North5,026Huntingdon and St Neots1,3131,747243229270003,559
HuntingdonshireHuntingdon West5,608Huntingdon and St Neots2,2211,33728693350003,972
HuntingdonshireKimbolton and Staughton2,507Huntingdon and St Neots1,3573314032160001,776
HuntingdonshireLittle Paxton2,572Huntingdon and St Neots1,26933912769180001,822
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East5,254Huntingdon and St Neots1,8971,260311187660003,721
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South5,003Huntingdon and St Neots1,9051,143298146510003,543
HuntingdonshireSt Ives West2,144Huntingdon and St Neots77548418257200001,518
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Ford5,114Huntingdon and St Neots2,433877150131310003,622
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eaton Socon4,281Huntingdon and St Neots1,778922112991210003,032
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Eynesbury7,862Huntingdon and St Neots2,7971,9252682942840005,568
HuntingdonshireSt Neots Priory Park5,891Huntingdon and St Neots2,3181,360299115800004,172
HuntingdonshireThe Hemingfords4,553Huntingdon and St Neots2,08981816994540003,224
 Total84,317 32,91618,4375,0902,1791,09500059,717

The full details of these calculations are given on the Huntingdon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cambridgeshire North West

The new seat of Cambridgeshire North West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Cambridgeshire North West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEllington2,414Cambridgeshire North West1,02925830323190001,632
HuntingdonshireEllington3Huntingdon100000001
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth2,109Cambridgeshire North West9363274149140001,367
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,258Cambridgeshire North West2,915941225304210004,406
HuntingdonshireSawtry5,144Cambridgeshire North West2,092852166203300003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,547Cambridgeshire North West2,03671914685500003,036
HuntingdonshireStilton2,342Cambridgeshire North West1,1233425952110001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,418Cambridgeshire North West1,22129718445210001,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,786Cambridgeshire North West1,970780250143290003,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,021Cambridgeshire North West3,4101,708174304530005,649
PeterboroughBarnack2,471Cambridgeshire North West1,0543146124160001,469
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering4,901Cambridgeshire North West2,356956236128300003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,198Cambridgeshire North West9882355744500001,374
PeterboroughOrton Longueville6,180Cambridgeshire North West2,2532,2761853621400005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,321Cambridgeshire North West2,4901,3691541101220004,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton8,971Cambridgeshire North West3,7752,3444692012130007,002
PeterboroughStanground Central7,057Cambridgeshire North West2,1691,908119227860004,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,138Cambridgeshire North West8885542360480001,573
 Total78,279 32,70616,1802,8522,36495300055,055

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cambridgeshire North West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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