Cambridgeshire South East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cambridgeshire South East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Lucy Frazer  (CON)
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate: 78,304
Turnout: 75.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON32,68355.1%
LAB15,78626.6%
LIB10,68218.0%
UKIP1010.2%
Green490.1%
CON Majority16,89728.5%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Cambridgeshire South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cambridgeshire South East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position1° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%57%52%
British Identity43%27%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born57%89%88%
Good Education47%37%39%
Good Job54%53%51%
High SEC44%53%51%
Average Age41.449.448.5
ABC1 Class54%55%53%

Cambridgeshire South East ranks #453 for "Leave", #130 for "Right" and #324 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cambridgeshire South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cambridgeshire South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Cambridgeshire South East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire North WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
HuntingdonshireEarith4,535Cambridgeshire South East2,085696181101490003,112
HuntingdonshireEllington2,375Cambridgeshire North West1,02925830223190001,631
HuntingdonshireElton and Folksworth1,991Cambridgeshire North West9363274149140001,367
HuntingdonshireRamsey6,418Cambridgeshire North West2,915941225304210004,406
HuntingdonshireSawtry4,871Cambridgeshire North West2,092852166203300003,343
HuntingdonshireSomersham4,423Cambridgeshire North West2,03671914685500003,036
HuntingdonshireSt Ives East15Huntingdon and St Neots5311000010
HuntingdonshireSt Ives South2Huntingdon and St Neots100000001
HuntingdonshireStilton2,311Cambridgeshire North West1,1233425952110001,587
HuntingdonshireUpwood and The Raveleys2,577Cambridgeshire North West1,22129718445210001,768
HuntingdonshireWarboys and Bury4,622Cambridgeshire North West1,970780250143290003,172
HuntingdonshireYaxley and Farcet8,228Cambridgeshire North West3,4101,708174304530005,649
PeterboroughBarnack2,143Cambridgeshire North West1,0543146124160001,469
PeterboroughFletton and Woodston8,467Peterborough2,7322,643133522520005,812
PeterboroughGlinton and Wittering5,400Cambridgeshire North West2,356956236128300003,706
PeterboroughNorthborough2,000Cambridgeshire North West9882355744500001,374
PeterboroughOrton Longueville7,599Cambridgeshire North West2,2532,2761853621400005,216
PeterboroughOrton Waterville6,184Cambridgeshire North West2,4901,3691541101220004,245
PeterboroughOrton with Hampton10,200Cambridgeshire North West3,7752,3444692012130007,002
PeterboroughStanground Central6,568Cambridgeshire North West2,1691,908119227860004,509
PeterboroughStanground East2,293Cambridgeshire North West8885542360480001,573
 Total93,222 37,52819,5223,1662,5181,25400063,988

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cambridgeshire South East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cambridgeshire South EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham3,066Cambridgeshire South East1,257509478000002,244
East CambridgeshireBurwell4,745Cambridgeshire South East2,051760660000003,471
East CambridgeshireCheveley3,087Cambridgeshire South East1,546474237000002,257
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages1,676Cambridgeshire South East789280159000001,228
East CambridgeshireEly East3,012Cambridgeshire South East1,206566431000002,203
East CambridgeshireEly North5,543Cambridgeshire South East2,0711,237747000004,055
East CambridgeshireEly South3,344Cambridgeshire South East1,304640503000002,447
East CambridgeshireEly West3,345Cambridgeshire South East1,181733534000002,448
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages2,856Cambridgeshire South East1,394456239000002,089
East CambridgeshireHaddenham4,500Cambridgeshire South East1,834815643000003,292
East CambridgeshireIsleham1,778Cambridgeshire South East585520197000001,302
East CambridgeshireSoham North3,867Cambridgeshire South East1,722714393000002,829
East CambridgeshireSoham South4,935Cambridgeshire South East2,0411,055515000003,611
East CambridgeshireStretham2,950Cambridgeshire South East1,458428272000002,158
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams1,515Cambridgeshire South East624238246000001,108
South CambridgeshireBalsham3,530Cambridgeshire South East1,502582497000002,581
South CambridgeshireFulbourn3,550Cambridgeshire South1,117874606000002,597
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington8,028Cambridgeshire South East2,3722,1401,360000005,872
South CambridgeshireLinton3,646Cambridgeshire South1,230834603000002,667
South CambridgeshireMilton3,565Cambridgeshire South East1,017807784000002,608
South CambridgeshireTeversham2,121Cambridgeshire South659647247000001,553
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams2,078Cambridgeshire South East837417267000001,521
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach4,212Cambridgeshire South East1,710672700000003,082
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over5,171Cambridgeshire South East2,0971,047639000003,783
 Total86,120 33,60417,44511,9570000063,006

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cambridgeshire South East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cambridgeshire South East

The new seat of Cambridgeshire South East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Cambridgeshire South East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East CambridgeshireBottisham3,028Cambridgeshire South East1,257509478000002,244
East CambridgeshireBurwell4,709Cambridgeshire South East2,051760660000003,471
East CambridgeshireCheveley2,970Cambridgeshire South East1,546474237000002,257
East CambridgeshireDullingham Villages1,496Cambridgeshire South East789280159000001,228
East CambridgeshireEly East2,870Cambridgeshire South East1,206566431000002,203
East CambridgeshireEly North4,917Cambridgeshire South East2,0711,237747000004,055
East CambridgeshireEly South2,998Cambridgeshire South East1,304640503000002,447
East CambridgeshireEly West3,294Cambridgeshire South East1,181733534000002,448
East CambridgeshireFordham Villages2,783Cambridgeshire South East1,394456239000002,089
East CambridgeshireHaddenham4,457Cambridgeshire South East1,834815643000003,292
East CambridgeshireIsleham1,789Cambridgeshire South East585520197000001,302
East CambridgeshireSoham North3,535Cambridgeshire South East1,722714393000002,829
East CambridgeshireSoham South4,785Cambridgeshire South East2,0411,055515000003,611
East CambridgeshireStretham3,009Cambridgeshire South East1,458428272000002,158
East CambridgeshireThe Swaffhams1,505Cambridgeshire South East624238246000001,108
HuntingdonshireEarith4,723Cambridgeshire North West2,085696181101490003,112
South CambridgeshireBalsham3,583Cambridgeshire South East1,502582497000002,581
South CambridgeshireHiston and Impington7,640Cambridgeshire South East2,3722,1401,360000005,872
South CambridgeshireMilton3,022Cambridgeshire South East1,017807784000002,608
South CambridgeshireThe Wilbrahams2,034Cambridgeshire South East837417267000001,521
South CambridgeshireWaterbeach3,936Cambridgeshire South East1,710672700000003,082
South CambridgeshireWillingham and Over5,221Cambridgeshire South East2,0971,047639000003,783
 Total78,304 32,68315,78610,6821014900059,301

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cambridgeshire South East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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