Canterbury and Faversham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Canterbury and Faversham: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 74,307
Turnout: 83.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,64846.2%
LAB26,34042.5%
LIB4,7317.6%
Green1,8032.9%
UKIP5050.8%
OTH10.0%
CON Majority2,3083.7%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Canterbury and Faversham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Canterbury and Faversham constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%52%52%
British Identity26%29%29%
Good Health48%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education38%43%39%
Good Job54%56%51%
High SEC55%57%51%
Average Age48.349.248.5
ABC1 Class56%60%53%

Canterbury and Faversham ranks #424 for "Leave", #316 for "Right" and #385 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Canterbury and Faversham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Canterbury and Faversham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Canterbury and Faversham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Canterbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Canterbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CanterburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBarton8,437Canterbury and Faversham2,3893,02460101180006,132
CanterburyBlean Forest6,802Canterbury and Faversham2,3022,03640602010004,945
CanterburyChartham and Stone Street5,047Canterbury and Faversham1,9261,4212540680003,669
CanterburyChestfield4,705Kent North Coastal2,1351,0831850170003,420
CanterburyGorrell8,163Kent North Coastal2,4522,98734101530005,933
CanterburyLittle Stour and Adisham2,870Canterbury and Faversham1,1327042210290002,086
CanterburyNailbourne2,842Canterbury and Faversham1,0507072930160002,066
CanterburyNorthgate5,072Canterbury and Faversham1,2132,1672230840003,687
CanterburySeasalter5,355Canterbury and Faversham2,1591,5251870220003,893
CanterburySt Stephen's6,701Canterbury and Faversham1,7332,52242101950004,871
CanterburySturry4,066Canterbury and Faversham1,5191,2171790410002,956
CanterburySwalecliffe2,846Kent North Coastal1,0428981150140002,069
CanterburyTankerton2,522Kent North Coastal1,0226441290380001,833
CanterburyWestgate6,535Canterbury and Faversham1,7962,24352901830004,751
CanterburyWincheap6,175Canterbury and Faversham1,5142,39347901020004,488
 Total78,138 25,38425,5714,56301,28100056,799

The full details of these calculations are given on the Canterbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dover

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dover, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DoverTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverAylesham3,746Canterbury and Faversham8571,5994093220002,611
DoverBuckland5,789Dover and Deal1,8491,86519272300004,035
DoverCapel-le-Ferne1,800Dover and Deal7922741374380001,254
DoverCastle1,711Dover and Deal6904194424170001,194
DoverEastry3,933Dover and Deal1,58685014991480002,742
DoverEythorne and Shepherdswell3,678Dover and Deal1,4351,060819410002,563
DoverLydden and Temple Ewell1,785Dover and Deal7384132254170001,244
DoverMaxton, Elms Vale and Priory5,886Dover and Deal2,1281,63970192730004,102
DoverMiddle Deal and Sholden5,710Dover and Deal2,0401,5791271271070003,980
DoverMill Hill5,971Dover and Deal1,6762,19587165380004,161
DoverNorth Deal5,660Dover and Deal2,0461,48326369860003,947
DoverRingwould1,528Dover and Deal66732066390001,065
DoverRiver3,439Dover and Deal1,6206721368240002,397
DoverSt Margaret's-at-Cliffe3,945Dover and Deal1,8537953248220002,750
DoverSt Radigunds4,308Dover and Deal1,3781,38524184310003,002
DoverTower Hamlets4,471Dover and Deal1,2911,465361541690003,115
DoverTown and Pier1,584Dover and Deal481521188140001,105
DoverWalmer5,690Dover and Deal2,3661,4426734560003,965
DoverWhitfield3,929Dover and Deal1,72080013077110002,738
 Total74,563 27,21320,7761,3351,72392300051,970

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dover seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Faversham and Kent Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Faversham and Kent Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Faversham and Kent MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
MaidstoneBearsted6,784Maidstone3,23376628688660004,439
MaidstoneBoughton Monchelsea and Chart Sutton2,168Kent Mid and Ticehurst9863197121220001,419
MaidstoneBoxley6,988Maidstone3,148863332199320004,574
MaidstoneDetling and Thurnham2,517Maidstone1,1212971754490001,646
MaidstoneDownswood and Otham2,323Maidstone97535012338350001,521
MaidstoneHarrietsham and Lenham4,484Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,929648190132360002,935
MaidstoneHeadcorn4,151Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,90041286163050002,719
MaidstoneLeeds2,026Kent Mid and Ticehurst9212309754250001,327
MaidstoneNorth Downs2,050Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,0192323714390001,341
MaidstonePark Wood5,100Maidstone1,6271,154276252290003,338
MaidstoneShepway North7,438Maidstone2,5221,491445327840004,869
MaidstoneShepway South4,865Maidstone1,3771,472209100250003,183
MaidstoneSutton Valence and Langley2,345Kent Mid and Ticehurst1,09225410926520001,533
SwaleAbbey4,415Canterbury and Faversham1,4761,066121571690002,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,644Canterbury and Faversham2,090656128661000003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,289Canterbury and Faversham1,0422955618870001,498
SwalePriory2,136Canterbury and Faversham7554719942300001,397
SwaleSt Ann's4,461Canterbury and Faversham1,475928269971510002,920
SwaleWatling4,825Canterbury and Faversham1,7001,0711411121340003,158
 Total76,009 30,38812,9753,2501,7031,43000049,746

The full details of these calculations are given on the Faversham and Kent Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thanet North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thanet North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thanet NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBeltinge5,545Kent North Coastal2,3411,12189112220033,688
CanterburyGreenhill3,173Kent North Coastal1,1667703113750012,110
CanterburyHerne and Broomfield6,329Kent North Coastal2,6871,188721531040064,210
CanterburyHeron9,767Kent North Coastal3,5902,0174752391660096,496
CanterburyReculver2,974Kent North Coastal1,374558102680021,978
CanterburySturry1,460Canterbury and Faversham520295842051001971
CanterburySwalecliffe11Kent North Coastal421000007
CanterburyWest Bay3,273Kent North Coastal1,20073879139200012,177
ThanetBirchington North2,875Kent North Coastal1,332415767690051,913
ThanetBirchington South4,863Kent North Coastal1,8071,0421392062000213,235
ThanetDane Valley6,076Thanet East and Sandwich1,6381,915129306470074,042
ThanetGarlinge3,769Kent North Coastal1,40893028120160062,508
ThanetMargate Central4,219Thanet East and Sandwich1,2701,245161201490082,808
ThanetSalmestone4,435Thanet East and Sandwich1,3901,226116147680022,949
ThanetThanet Villages5,242Kent North Coastal2,2019912913410700253,487
ThanetWestbrook3,229Kent North Coastal1,29269217121200052,147
ThanetWestgate-on-Sea5,415Kent North Coastal1,9431,2811961411600243,601
 Total72,655 27,16316,4261,5872,1978280012648,327

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thanet North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Canterbury and Faversham

The new seat of Canterbury and Faversham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Canterbury and Faversham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CanterburyBarton5,994Canterbury2,3893,02460101180006,132
CanterburyBlean Forest4,034Canterbury2,3022,03640602010004,945
CanterburyChartham and Stone Street5,240Canterbury1,9261,4212540680003,669
CanterburyLittle Stour and Adisham3,041Canterbury1,1327042210290002,086
CanterburyNailbourne3,025Canterbury1,0507072930160002,066
CanterburyNorthgate3,120Canterbury1,2132,1672230840003,687
CanterburySeasalter6,019Canterbury2,1591,5251870220003,893
CanterburySt Stephen's4,381Canterbury1,7332,52242101950004,871
CanterburySturry4,145Canterbury1,5001,11219315680012,889
CanterburySturry1,489Thanet North539400705240001,038
CanterburyWestgate4,476Canterbury1,7962,24352901830004,751
CanterburyWincheap5,306Canterbury1,5142,39347901020004,488
DoverAylesham3,650Dover8571,5994093220002,611
SwaleAbbey3,835Faversham and Kent Mid1,4761,066121571690002,889
SwaleBoughton and Courtenay4,277Faversham and Kent Mid2,090656128661000003,040
SwaleEast Downs2,128Faversham and Kent Mid1,0422955618870001,498
SwalePriory1,978Faversham and Kent Mid7554719942300001,397
SwaleSt Ann's3,906Faversham and Kent Mid1,475928269971510002,920
SwaleWatling4,263Faversham and Kent Mid1,7001,0711411121340003,158
 Total74,307 28,64826,3404,7315051,80300162,028

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Canterbury and Faversham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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