Carlisle: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Carlisle: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: John Stevenson  (CON)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 76,825
Turnout: 71.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,95552.4%
LAB22,08740.0%
UKIP1,9223.5%
LIB1,7593.2%
Green4600.8%
OTH810.1%
CON Majority6,86812.4%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Carlisle : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Carlisle constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right6° Left
National Position9° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%54%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born87%92%88%
Good Education49%37%39%
Good Job54%49%51%
High SEC50%48%51%
Average Age45.548.648.5
ABC1 Class61%50%53%

Carlisle ranks #141 for "Leave", #198 for "Right" and #155 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carlisle: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Carlisle been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Carlisle

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carlisle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carlisle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CarlisleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarlisleBelah4,475Carlisle1,8991,029699600003,093
CarlisleBelle Vue4,714Carlisle1,5581,5571512700003,257
CarlisleBotcherby4,484Carlisle1,4701,506411900003,099
CarlisleBurgh1,497Carlisle749192841000001,035
CarlisleCastle4,312Carlisle1,3871,4071186900002,981
CarlisleCurrock4,502Carlisle1,3451,5539811600003,112
CarlisleDalston4,384Carlisle1,9407572736000003,030
CarlisleDenton Holme4,583Carlisle1,2511,7141069700003,168
CarlisleHarraby4,842Carlisle1,4731,7192313300003,348
CarlisleMorton4,243Carlisle1,1501,5497016400002,933
CarlisleSt Aidans4,379Carlisle1,4261,4271096400003,026
CarlisleStanwix Urban4,287Carlisle1,7271,0751154600002,963
CarlisleUpperby4,010Carlisle1,0321,5157514900002,771
CarlisleWetheral3,305Carlisle1,575596585600002,285
CarlisleYewdale4,277Carlisle1,4901,2773915000002,956
 Total62,294 21,47218,8731,2561,456000043,057

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carlisle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Penrith and The Border

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Penrith and The Border, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Penrith and The BorderTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleWarnell1,589Penrith and Solway83712823441000031,135
AllerdaleWigton4,641Penrith and Solway1,2241,654572877400133,309
CarlisleBrampton3,697Carlisle1,50168118714111600122,638
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,668Carlisle744393343120041,190
CarlisleHayton1,692Carlisle64842662271600271,206
CarlisleIrthing1,582Carlisle71525434141040071,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe3,226Carlisle1,358671781433800132,301
CarlisleLyne1,533Carlisle82611920161080051,094
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,715Carlisle1,691670881226600132,650
EdenAlston Moor1,655Penrith and Solway62637876383500271,180
EdenAppleby (Appleby)1,025Westmorland and Lonsdale3343083324140018731
EdenAppleby (Bongate)1,395Westmorland and Lonsdale360251352218004996
EdenAskham1,139Penrith and Solway528101158221002812
EdenBrough1,051Westmorland and Lonsdale396280311780019751
EdenCrosby Ravensworth1,114Penrith and Solway6907015116002794
EdenDacre1,132Penrith and Solway3732171839150010807
EdenEamont1,160Penrith and Solway6901141532002826
EdenGreystoke1,117Penrith and Solway6545851622007798
EdenHartside1,013Penrith and Solway483178296160011723
EdenHesket2,470Penrith and Solway1,3572827622900161,762
EdenKirkby Stephen2,052Westmorland and Lonsdale96532497371900231,465
EdenKirkby Thore1,235Penrith and Solway454367241230022882
EdenKirkoswald1,171Penrith and Solway427307571190023834
EdenLangwathby1,243Penrith and Solway549281201080018886
EdenLazonby1,136Penrith and Solway64513317013002810
EdenLong Marton965Penrith and Solway5767716212006689
EdenMorland1,040Penrith and Solway388291212220019743
EdenOrton with Tebay1,075Westmorland and Lonsdale6356843910002767
EdenPenrith Carleton1,223Penrith and Solway59713812364004872
EdenPenrith East2,138Penrith and Solway87430730423110071,526
EdenPenrith North3,338Penrith and Solway1,24763645219200082,382
EdenPenrith Pategill1,078Penrith and Solway215261275141004770
EdenPenrith South2,001Penrith and Solway77145215726400171,427
EdenPenrith West2,579Penrith and Solway75074929722140081,840
EdenRavenstonedale783Westmorland and Lonsdale510191648002559
EdenShap1,108Penrith and Solway597134301311005790
EdenSkelton1,163Penrith and Solway727682319002830
EdenUllswater1,119Penrith and Solway684475219006799
EdenWarcop1,081Westmorland and Lonsdale4332771415140019772
 Total65,142 28,07912,1693,6401,1431,0310041246,474

The full details of these calculations are given on the Penrith and The Border seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Carlisle

The new seat of Carlisle is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Carlisle
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarlisleBelah4,648Carlisle1,8991,029699600003,093
CarlisleBelle Vue4,592Carlisle1,5581,5571512700003,257
CarlisleBotcherby3,961Carlisle1,4701,506411900003,099
CarlisleBrampton3,422Penrith and The Border1,50168118714111600122,638
CarlisleBurgh1,630Carlisle749192841000001,035
CarlisleCastle3,478Carlisle1,3871,4071186900002,981
CarlisleCurrock4,053Carlisle1,3451,5539811600003,112
CarlisleDalston4,802Carlisle1,9407572736000003,030
CarlisleDenton Holme4,207Carlisle1,2511,7141069700003,168
CarlisleGreat Corby and Geltsdale1,659Penrith and The Border744393343120041,190
CarlisleHarraby4,661Carlisle1,4731,7192313300003,348
CarlisleHayton1,574Penrith and The Border64842662271600271,206
CarlisleIrthing1,516Penrith and The Border71525434141040071,128
CarlisleLongtown and Rockcliffe2,978Penrith and The Border1,358671781433800132,301
CarlisleLyne1,541Penrith and The Border82611920161080051,094
CarlisleMorton4,376Carlisle1,1501,5497016400002,933
CarlisleSt Aidans3,882Carlisle1,4261,4271096400003,026
CarlisleStanwix Rural3,628Penrith and The Border1,691670881226600132,650
CarlisleStanwix Urban4,386Carlisle1,7271,0751154600002,963
CarlisleUpperby3,579Carlisle1,0321,5157514900002,771
CarlisleWetheral3,736Carlisle1,575596585600002,285
CarlisleYewdale4,516Carlisle1,4901,2773915000002,956
 Total76,825 28,95522,0871,7591,922460008155,264

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Carlisle.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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