Carmarthen: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Carmarthen: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 72,569
Turnout: 75.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB18,04032.8%
Plaid17,41831.7%
CON16,95530.8%
LIB1,3982.5%
UKIP1,1592.1%
LAB Majority6221.1%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Carmarthen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Carmarthen constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position12° Left10° Left
National Position2° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %52%53%52%
British Identity33%26%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born91%95%88%
Good Education49%36%39%
Good Job62%46%51%
High SEC63%46%51%
Average Age48.549.648.5
ABC1 Class65%47%53%

Carmarthen ranks #356 for "Leave", #514 for "Right" and #412 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Carmarthen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Carmarthen been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Carmarthen

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen East and DinefwrTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,836Carmarthen46729033340522001,346
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,139Carmarthen1377289420653001,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,712Carmarthen27557119210370001,256
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,754Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North32514225310763001,286
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,179Carmarthen4291834531017500863
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,255Carmarthen258136165050400919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,685Carmarthen53804190368001,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,856Carmarthen1384979280688001,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,228Carmarthen52995433710779002,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,582Carmarthen39030722230416001,158
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,325Carmarthen61947046440525001,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,139Carmarthen74929283430400001,567
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,106Carmarthen66590434700603002,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,917Carmarthen50123936270602001,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,447Carmarthen32917745150495001,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,243Carmarthen379142513901,032001,643
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,511Carmarthen50824842370272001,107
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,683Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North62732557630895001,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,827Carmarthen40925039280613001,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,410Carmarthen32440018320992001,766
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,210Carmarthen59535867450554001,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,796Carmarthen62223740300387001,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,278Carmarthen30071322440590001,669
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,146Carmarthen1698536110534001,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,302Carmarthen11871213560788001,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,267Carmarthen397890297301,005002,394
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,143Carmarthen46339576310605001,570
 Total55,976 10,77512,217916983016,1300041,021

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,886Carmarthen9201,18357330610002,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,915Carmarthen74090675260356002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,984Carmarthen1,11799871350652002,873
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,284Carmarthen77250015390321001,647
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,156Carmarthen7067451129063001,554
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,589Carmarthen5543248220237001,145
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,495Carmarthen48633920250209001,079
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,259Carmarthen740532196250136001,629
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,573Carmarthen54229989170188001,135
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,712Carmarthen55546422190174001,234
PembrokeshireAmroth940Pembrokeshire South and Mid436199111401800678
PembrokeshireCarew1,152Pembrokeshire South and Mid43134372702300831
PembrokeshireEast Williamston1,865Pembrokeshire South and Mid7185261048043001,345
PembrokeshireHundleton1,422Pembrokeshire South and Mid535436826020001,025
PembrokeshireKilgetty / Begelly1,675Pembrokeshire South and Mid6754571922034001,207
PembrokeshireLampeter Velfrey1,185Pembrokeshire South and Mid56622492003500854
PembrokeshireLamphey1,274Pembrokeshire South and Mid532327351301300920
PembrokeshireManorbier1,581Pembrokeshire South and Mid5974731736018001,141
PembrokeshireMartletwy1,060Pembrokeshire South and Mid517190241502000766
PembrokeshireNarberth1,445Pembrokeshire South and Mid5254441019045001,043
PembrokeshireNarberth Rural1,167Pembrokeshire South and Mid497274191803300841
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Central1,346Pembrokeshire South and Mid34758491102000971
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Llanion2,126Pembrokeshire South and Mid4989481342032001,533
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Market1,359Pembrokeshire South and Mid36556672601800982
PembrokeshirePembroke Dock: Pennar2,539Pembrokeshire South and Mid3321,403236059001,832
PembrokeshirePembroke: Monkton1,256Pembrokeshire South and Mid39043374802700905
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary North1,568Pembrokeshire South and Mid585463860016001,132
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Mary South1,086Pembrokeshire South and Mid41028891705800782
PembrokeshirePembroke: St Michael1,813Pembrokeshire South and Mid8433911338022001,307
PembrokeshirePenally1,318Pembrokeshire South and Mid5722081612014200950
PembrokeshireSaundersfoot1,982Pembrokeshire South and Mid9693464245027001,429
PembrokeshireTenby: North1,580Pembrokeshire South and Mid58430021100225001,140
PembrokeshireTenby: South1,956Pembrokeshire South and Mid7175487532039001,411
 Total58,548 19,77316,66195590503,9330042,227

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Carmarthen

The new seat of Carmarthen is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Carmarthen
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,799Carmarthen East and Dinefwr46729033340522001,346
CarmarthenshireAmmanford1,861Carmarthen East and Dinefwr1377289420653001,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,730Carmarthen East and Dinefwr27557119210370001,256
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town North3,606Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South9201,18357330610002,803
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town South2,537Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South74090675260356002,103
CarmarthenshireCarmarthen Town West3,196Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South1,11799871350652002,873
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,145Carmarthen East and Dinefwr4291834531017500863
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Elfed2,444Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South77250015390321001,647
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,260Carmarthen East and Dinefwr258136165050400919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,486Carmarthen East and Dinefwr53804190368001,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,720Carmarthen East and Dinefwr1384979280688001,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,384Carmarthen East and Dinefwr52995433710779002,366
CarmarthenshireLaugharne Township2,085Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7067451129063001,554
CarmarthenshireLlanboidy1,582Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South5543248220237001,145
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,570Carmarthen East and Dinefwr39030722230416001,158
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,234Carmarthen East and Dinefwr61947046440525001,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery1,980Carmarthen East and Dinefwr74929283430400001,567
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,107Carmarthen East and Dinefwr66590434700603002,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,887Carmarthen East and Dinefwr50123936270602001,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,417Carmarthen East and Dinefwr32917745150495001,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,098Carmarthen East and Dinefwr379142513901,032001,643
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,544Carmarthen East and Dinefwr50824842370272001,107
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor2,049Carmarthen East and Dinefwr40925039280613001,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,550Carmarthen East and Dinefwr32440018320992001,766
CarmarthenshireLlansteffan1,621Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South48633920250209001,079
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder1,922Carmarthen East and Dinefwr59535867450554001,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,709Carmarthen East and Dinefwr62223740300387001,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,143Carmarthen East and Dinefwr30071322440590001,669
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,047Carmarthen East and Dinefwr1698536110534001,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,108Carmarthen East and Dinefwr11871213560788001,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,028Carmarthen East and Dinefwr397890297301,005002,394
CarmarthenshireSt Clears2,300Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South740532196250136001,629
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,097Carmarthen East and Dinefwr46339576310605001,570
CarmarthenshireTrelech1,659Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South54229989170188001,135
CarmarthenshireWhitland1,664Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South55546422190174001,234
 Total72,569 16,95518,0401,3981,159017,4180054,970

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Carmarthen.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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