Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North: Overview

 Projection: Plaid seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area: Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate: 71,468
Turnout: 78.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
Plaid14,75926.5%
CON13,51624.2%
LIB13,02823.4%
LAB12,56322.5%
UKIP8711.6%
Green6121.1%
MIN2500.4%
OTH1640.3%
Plaid Majority1,2432.2%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position10° Left10° Left
National Position7° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC43%46%51%
Average Age49.849.648.5
ABC1 Class43%47%53%

Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North ranks #421 for "Leave", #491 for "Right" and #450 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen East and DinefwrTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireAbergwili1,836Carmarthen46729033340522001,346
CarmarthenshireAmmanford2,139Carmarthen1377289420653001,569
CarmarthenshireBetws1,712Carmarthen27557119210370001,256
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,754Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North32514225310763001,286
CarmarthenshireCilycwm1,179Carmarthen4291834531017500863
CarmarthenshireCynwyl Gaeo1,255Carmarthen258136165050400919
CarmarthenshireGarnant1,685Carmarthen53804190368001,235
CarmarthenshireGlanamman1,856Carmarthen1384979280688001,360
CarmarthenshireGorslas3,228Carmarthen52995433710779002,366
CarmarthenshireLlanddarog1,582Carmarthen39030722230416001,158
CarmarthenshireLlandeilo2,325Carmarthen61947046440525001,704
CarmarthenshireLlandovery2,139Carmarthen74929283430400001,567
CarmarthenshireLlandybie3,106Carmarthen66590434700603002,276
CarmarthenshireLlanegwad1,917Carmarthen50123936270602001,405
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel Aberbythych1,447Carmarthen32917745150495001,061
CarmarthenshireLlanfihangel-ar-Arth2,243Carmarthen379142513901,032001,643
CarmarthenshireLlangadog1,511Carmarthen50824842370272001,107
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,683Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North62732557630895001,967
CarmarthenshireLlangunnor1,827Carmarthen40925039280613001,339
CarmarthenshireLlangyndeyrn2,410Carmarthen32440018320992001,766
CarmarthenshireLlanybydder2,210Carmarthen59535867450554001,619
CarmarthenshireManordeilo and Salem1,796Carmarthen62223740300387001,316
CarmarthenshirePenygroes2,278Carmarthen30071322440590001,669
CarmarthenshirePontamman2,146Carmarthen1698536110534001,573
CarmarthenshireQuarter Bach2,302Carmarthen11871213560788001,687
CarmarthenshireSaron3,267Carmarthen397890297301,005002,394
CarmarthenshireSt Ishmael2,143Carmarthen46339576310605001,570
 Total55,976 10,77512,217916983016,1300041,021

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ceredigion

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ceredigion, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CeredigionTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CeredigionAberaeron992Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North77624511115104747
CeredigionAberporth1,693Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North3633142294318296091,272
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,282Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North20010225413338704963
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch803Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2611630310114603605
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi811Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North5913517714421902610
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,448Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North166139237629511011,089
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,654Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North145188588237283011,244
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,916Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North195240566938388041,440
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,175Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2503994292210519061,635
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,813Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2333764311546258061,365
CeredigionBeulah1,147Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North15199186151039703861
CeredigionBorth1,440Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2654012272321139081,084
CeredigionCapel Dewi925Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North18516689271620805696
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,336Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North72133385412398011,005
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,378Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North174128350154362031,036
CeredigionFaenor1,769Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North133113737137326011,330
CeredigionLampeter2,041Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2875643481327292041,535
CeredigionLlanarth1,126Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North1771242787325403846
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn717Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North571241379220901539
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,660Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North204198301625514001,248
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,276Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North23314111325943503959
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,398Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North35231915536171630101,052
CeredigionLlandysul Town989Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North12318893291029604743
CeredigionLlanfarian1,074Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North1121352445430800808
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,456Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North178156320114422031,094
CeredigionLlangeitho1,047Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North169199271151411406788
CeredigionLlangybi1,021Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North9410920431034701768
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,114Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North1351214565511302837
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,660Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North31036929238301990101,248
CeredigionLlanwenog1,290Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North208230177111132904970
CeredigionLledrod1,520Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North31539720331301570101,143
CeredigionMelindwr1,408Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North111155321913448011,058
CeredigionNew Quay741Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North249126941666104556
CeredigionPen-parc1,601Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North32331920626183020101,204
CeredigionPenbryn1,399Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2532252171520312091,051
CeredigionTirymynach1,344Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North8614850892258001,011
CeredigionTrefeurig1,224Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North162239207131128205919
CeredigionTregaron846Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North101678213336901636
CeredigionTroedyraur916Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North21617696181016904689
CeredigionYstwyth1,439Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North1567655592282011,081
 Total52,889 7,3058,01611,51760454311,623015739,765

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ceredigion seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MontgomeryshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1941171390167800544
PowysBerriew1,096Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3821431660224000753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,059221450258001,286
PowysCaersws1,860Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery70519728102174001,278
PowysChurchstoke1,268Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery368116355092400872
PowysDolforwyn1,574Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery62216121401671001,084
PowysForden1,152Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery53388129063600792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North457252253029125001,116
PowysGuilsfield1,854Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North64122131002082001,274
PowysKerry1,636Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery72712122801039001,125
PowysLlanbrynmair730Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2689499073300501
PowysLlandinam1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3781301680256800769
PowysLlandrinio1,727Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58826325702357001,188
PowysLlandysilio1,398Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5032021920263900962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4221553200147500986
PowysLlanfihangel852Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North2711061350136100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58870105076800838
PowysLlanidloes2,292Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery79428638303282001,577
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North9192919601361001,218
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6919722101335001,057
PowysLlanwddyn825Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North234881640166600568
PowysMachynlleth1,784Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North474305283033132001,227
PowysMeifod1,046Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3341381670225700718
PowysMontgomery1,095Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3541651750263400754
PowysNewtown Central2,618Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,2612772420316001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34415648807132001,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4451096420932001,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery75677129091900990
PowysNewtown South1,507Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery29541427301045001,037
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery57619430302599001,197
PowysTrewern1,130Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4501331510172500776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3922092080113900859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6421817050316001,547
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North40822756401042001,251
 Total50,754 18,0755,5438,79005251,9600034,893

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preseli Pembrokeshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Preseli PembrokeshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PembrokeshireBurton1,405Pembrokeshire South and Mid4964461200133621,014
PembrokeshireCamrose1,907Pembrokeshire South and Mid6965686290205511,375
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,551Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North52642923180794111,117
PembrokeshireClydau1,098Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North273187218030380791
PembrokeshireCrymych1,916Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North57443072003094011,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,295Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2561734378046140934
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,420Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North50636025400573521,025
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,189Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2664496211056121857
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,535Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North3724741141901151101,105
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Castle1,795Pembrokeshire South and Mid4717522930261301,294
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Garth2,072Pembrokeshire South and Mid64769539340354411,495
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Portfield1,840Pembrokeshire South and Mid6855379280185011,328
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Prendergast1,538Pembrokeshire South and Mid53845411320294411,109
PembrokeshireHaverfordwest: Priory1,881Pembrokeshire South and Mid6066269380294721,357
PembrokeshireJohnston1,916Pembrokeshire South and Mid58464419380465011,382
PembrokeshireLetterston1,769Pembrokeshire South and Mid77233525210823811,274
PembrokeshireLlangwm1,781Pembrokeshire South and Mid57160910310174511,284
PembrokeshireLlanrhian1,118Pembrokeshire South and Mid3893112814032302806
PembrokeshireMaenclochog2,380Pembrokeshire South and Mid697589112503405311,716
PembrokeshireMartletwy423 18991650590305
PembrokeshireMerlin's Bridge1,690Pembrokeshire South and Mid3987409130243311,218
PembrokeshireMilford: Central1,533Pembrokeshire South and Mid39245303502022121,105
PembrokeshireMilford: East1,641Pembrokeshire South and Mid4496610410121901,182
PembrokeshireMilford: Hakin1,712Pembrokeshire South and Mid5735421420274911,235
PembrokeshireMilford: Hubberston1,903Pembrokeshire South and Mid3848750610173411,372
PembrokeshireMilford: North2,110Pembrokeshire South and Mid861586029063911,522
PembrokeshireMilford: West1,723Pembrokeshire South and Mid32546113204012301,243
PembrokeshireNewport878Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North267225449063231632
PembrokeshireNeyland: East1,657Pembrokeshire South and Mid209952010081411,194
PembrokeshireNeyland: West1,678Pembrokeshire South and Mid3677510370213121,209
PembrokeshireRudbaxton708Pembrokeshire South and Mid33414251105140511
PembrokeshireScleddau1,130Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North482232147062180815
PembrokeshireSolva1,445Pembrokeshire South and Mid41150624130187011,043
PembrokeshireSt David's1,408Pembrokeshire South and Mid43945339120422911,015
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,727Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North53847066230984811,244
PembrokeshireSt Ishmael's1,078Pembrokeshire South and Mid442279513013241777
PembrokeshireThe Havens1,169Pembrokeshire South and Mid44734321404331844
PembrokeshireWiston1,521Pembrokeshire South and Mid8691592210301411,096
 Total58,540 18,30117,9891,10585502,7101,2113542,206

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North

The new seat of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CarmarthenshireCenarth1,570Carmarthen East and Dinefwr32514225310763001,286
CarmarthenshireLlangeler2,546Carmarthen East and Dinefwr62732557630895001,967
CeredigionAberaeron946Ceredigion77624511115104747
CeredigionAberporth1,614Ceredigion3633142294318296091,272
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan1,222Ceredigion20010225413338704963
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch766Ceredigion2611630310114603605
CeredigionAberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi773Ceredigion5913517714421902610
CeredigionAberystwyth Bronglais1,381Ceredigion166139237629511011,089
CeredigionAberystwyth Canol / Central1,577Ceredigion145188588237283011,244
CeredigionAberystwyth Gogledd / North1,827Ceredigion195240566938388041,440
CeredigionAberystwyth Penparcau2,074Ceredigion2503994292210519061,635
CeredigionAberystwyth Rheidol1,729Ceredigion2333764311546258061,365
CeredigionBeulah1,094Ceredigion15199186151039703861
CeredigionBorth1,373Ceredigion2654012272321139081,084
CeredigionCapel Dewi882Ceredigion18516689271620805696
CeredigionCeulanamaesmawr1,274Ceredigion72133385412398011,005
CeredigionCiliau Aeron1,314Ceredigion174128350154362031,036
CeredigionFaenor1,687Ceredigion133113737137326011,330
CeredigionLampeter1,946Ceredigion2875643481327292041,535
CeredigionLlanarth1,074Ceredigion1771242787325403846
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Padarn684Ceredigion571241379220901539
CeredigionLlanbadarn Fawr - Sulien1,583Ceredigion204198301625514001,248
CeredigionLlandyfriog1,217Ceredigion23314111325943503959
CeredigionLlandysilio-gogo1,333Ceredigion35231915536171630101,052
CeredigionLlandysul Town943Ceredigion12318893291029604743
CeredigionLlanfarian1,024Ceredigion1121352445430800808
CeredigionLlanfihangel Ystrad1,388Ceredigion178156320114422031,094
CeredigionLlangeitho998Ceredigion169199271151411406788
CeredigionLlangybi974Ceredigion9410920431034701768
CeredigionLlanrhystyd1,062Ceredigion1351214565511302837
CeredigionLlansantffraed1,583Ceredigion31036929238301990101,248
CeredigionLlanwenog1,230Ceredigion208230177111132904970
CeredigionLledrod1,449Ceredigion31539720331301570101,143
CeredigionMelindwr1,343Ceredigion111155321913448011,058
CeredigionNew Quay707Ceredigion249126941666104556
CeredigionPen-parc1,527Ceredigion32331920626183020101,204
CeredigionPenbryn1,334Ceredigion2532252171520312091,051
CeredigionTirymynach1,282Ceredigion8614850892258001,011
CeredigionTrefeurig1,167Ceredigion162239207131128205919
CeredigionTregaron807Ceredigion101678213336901636
CeredigionTroedyraur873Ceredigion21617696181016904689
CeredigionYstwyth1,372Ceredigion1567655592282011,081
PembrokeshireCilgerran1,396Preseli Pembrokeshire52642923180794111,117
PembrokeshireClydau1,105Preseli Pembrokeshire273187218030380791
PembrokeshireCrymych1,918Preseli Pembrokeshire57443072003094011,381
PembrokeshireDinas Cross1,210Preseli Pembrokeshire2561734378046140934
PembrokeshireFishguard North East1,399Preseli Pembrokeshire50636025400573521,025
PembrokeshireFishguard North West1,094Preseli Pembrokeshire2664496211056121857
PembrokeshireGoodwick1,335Preseli Pembrokeshire3724741141901151101,105
PembrokeshireNewport812Preseli Pembrokeshire267225449063231632
PembrokeshireScleddau1,076Preseli Pembrokeshire482232147062180815
PembrokeshireSt Dogmaels1,647Preseli Pembrokeshire53847066230984811,244
PowysGlantwymyn1,558Montgomeryshire457252253029125001,116
PowysLlanbrynmair742Montgomeryshire2689499073300501
PowysMachynlleth1,627Montgomeryshire474305283033132001,227
 Total71,468 13,51612,56313,02887161214,75925016455,763

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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