Charnwood: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Charnwood: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Edward Argar  (CON)
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,023
Turnout: 71.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,40556.5%
LAB18,34334.1%
LIB2,2724.2%
UKIP1,5622.9%
Green9891.8%
OTH2340.4%
CON Majority12,06222.4%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Charnwood : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Charnwood constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right3° Right
National Position9° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%59%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health45%45%48%
UK Born96%91%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job45%48%51%
High SEC46%47%51%
Average Age52.149.148.5
ABC1 Class46%50%53%

Charnwood ranks #243 for "Leave", #129 for "Right" and #140 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Charnwood: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Charnwood been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Charnwood

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Bosworth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Bosworth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: BosworthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Hinckley and BosworthAmbien2,816Bosworth1,3403582140490001,961
Hinckley and BosworthBarlestone, Nailstone and Osbaston2,654Bosworth9033515410540001,849
Hinckley and BosworthBarwell7,432Bosworth2,7491,54076101280005,178
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage Sketchley and Stretton7,265Bosworth3,1849218910650005,061
Hinckley and BosworthBurbage St Catherines and Lash Hill4,671Bosworth1,8787216150400003,254
Hinckley and BosworthCadeby, Carlton and Market Bosworth with Shackerstone2,868Bosworth1,4203212260310001,998
Hinckley and BosworthEarl Shilton8,202Bosworth3,1841,6827730750005,714
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Castle4,881Bosworth1,46894882901550003,400
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Clarendon7,044Bosworth2,4251,3031,0790990004,906
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley De Montfort7,806Bosworth3,1131,1211,1270770005,438
Hinckley and BosworthHinckley Trinity5,440Bosworth1,8909118990890003,789
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead4,600Charnwood1,7041,0494150360003,204
Hinckley and BosworthNewbold Verdon with Desford and Peckleton6,667Bosworth2,7959897800800004,644
Hinckley and BosworthRatby, Bagworth and Thornton5,810Bosworth2,5591,0104320460004,047
Hinckley and BosworthTwycross and Witherley with Sheepy2,477Bosworth1,2522911620210001,726
 Total80,633 31,86413,5169,74401,04500056,169

The full details of these calculations are given on the Bosworth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Charnwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Charnwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CharnwoodTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BlabyEllis4,080Leicestershire South2,00076073182200112,884
BlabyFairestone3,888Leicestershire South1,9026876764200082,748
BlabyForest5,860Leicestershire South3,41458258393300164,142
BlabyMuxloe3,462Leicestershire South2,084270599190052,446
CharnwoodAnstey5,358Charnwood1,8051,21326628520000163,785
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip4,871Charnwood1,6971,26738115760083,444
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,466Charnwood2,3531,266114734800103,864
CharnwoodEast Goscote2,376Rutland and Melton8966348445500421,679
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,809Charnwood1,480441461130041,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,647Charnwood2,2471,1649726920000133,990
CharnwoodQueniborough2,480Rutland and Melton1,323355431780071,753
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,168Charnwood2,570827241823900113,653
CharnwoodSyston East5,156Charnwood2,0361,224225856100133,644
CharnwoodSyston West5,416Charnwood2,1831,53239134700153,829
CharnwoodThurmaston7,965Charnwood2,6602,704511076200465,630
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,459Charnwood1,388292311590031,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,610Charnwood1,2801,75847023712400953,964
 Total78,071 33,31816,9762,0521,4731,0360032355,178

The full details of these calculations are given on the Charnwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Loughborough

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Loughborough, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LoughboroughTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CharnwoodBarrow and Sileby West5,248Charnwood2,2931,1315238550003,569
CharnwoodLoughborough Ashby5,173Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,2711,8351721031390003,520
CharnwoodLoughborough Dishley and Hathern4,836Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,6881,4756420430003,290
CharnwoodLoughborough Garendon4,716Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,3951,52320840420003,208
CharnwoodLoughborough Hastings4,833Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,1701,84758159530003,287
CharnwoodLoughborough Lemyngton5,235Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,1982,11261100890003,560
CharnwoodLoughborough Nanpantan4,392Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,5491,0952626750002,987
CharnwoodLoughborough Outwoods4,592Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,85197618869400003,124
CharnwoodLoughborough Shelthorpe5,915Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,9671,8528956600004,024
CharnwoodLoughborough Southfields5,416Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,8131,57615351370003,684
CharnwoodLoughborough Storer4,844Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,3061,682111201760003,295
CharnwoodQuorn and Mountsorrel Castle5,211Charnwood2,3381,0604392120003,545
CharnwoodShepshed East5,198Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,7841,32319122790003,534
CharnwoodShepshed West5,652Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,8211,42622037430003,844
CharnwoodSileby5,823Charnwood2,3711,4151815070003,961
CharnwoodThe Wolds2,524Loughborough and South Rushcliffe1,207427486290001,717
 Total79,608 27,02222,7551,9381,46596900054,149

The full details of these calculations are given on the Loughborough seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Charnwood

The new seat of Charnwood is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Charnwood
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CharnwoodAnstey5,213Charnwood1,8051,21326628520000163,785
CharnwoodBarrow and Sileby West5,223Loughborough2,2931,1315238550003,569
CharnwoodBirstall Wanlip5,250Charnwood1,6971,26738115760083,444
CharnwoodBirstall Watermead5,108Charnwood2,3531,266114734800103,864
CharnwoodForest Bradgate2,484Charnwood1,480441461130041,985
CharnwoodMountsorrel5,247Charnwood2,2471,1649726920000133,990
CharnwoodQuorn and Mountsorrel Castle5,463Loughborough2,3381,0604392120003,545
CharnwoodRothley and Thurcaston5,292Charnwood2,570827241823900113,653
CharnwoodSileby5,615Loughborough2,3711,4151815070003,961
CharnwoodSyston East5,223Charnwood2,0361,224225856100133,644
CharnwoodSyston West4,985Charnwood2,1831,53239134700153,829
CharnwoodThurmaston7,414Charnwood2,6602,704511076200465,630
CharnwoodWreake Villages2,415Charnwood1,388292311590031,738
Hinckley and BosworthGroby5,440Charnwood1,2801,75847023712400953,964
Hinckley and BosworthMarkfield, Stanton and Fieldhead4,651Bosworth1,7041,0494150360003,204
 Total75,023 30,40518,3432,2721,5629890023453,805

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Charnwood.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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