Chesterfield: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Chesterfield: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Toby Perkins  (LAB)
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate: 75,675
Turnout: 67.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB27,62054.0%
CON17,68534.6%
LIB3,0946.0%
UKIP1,9263.8%
Green8391.6%
LAB Majority9,93519.4%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.

Chesterfield : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Chesterfield constituency, the 'East Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatEast MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position13° Left3° Right
National Position4° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health50%45%48%
UK Born91%91%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job60%48%51%
High SEC61%47%51%
Average Age47.849.148.5
ABC1 Class64%50%53%

Chesterfield ranks #157 for "Leave", #523 for "Right" and #262 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Chesterfield: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Chesterfield been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Chesterfield

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Chesterfield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chesterfield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ChesterfieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBrimington North3,245Chesterfield5661,4497851150002,159
ChesterfieldBrimington South4,637Chesterfield9821,89616017290003,084
ChesterfieldBrockwell4,759Chesterfield1,1791,483320751090003,166
ChesterfieldDunston4,830Chesterfield9111,884134247370003,213
ChesterfieldHasland5,036Chesterfield1,1801,81921778550003,349
ChesterfieldHollingwood and Inkersall5,941Chesterfield1,4952,18088135530003,951
ChesterfieldHolmebrook3,415Chesterfield7371,30614547360002,271
ChesterfieldLinacre3,139Chesterfield959823154119330002,088
ChesterfieldLoundsley Green3,027Chesterfield6411,1759847520002,013
ChesterfieldMiddlecroft and Poolsbrook3,787Chesterfield6151,7555185120002,518
ChesterfieldMoor3,421Chesterfield7721,29713349240002,275
ChesterfieldOld Whittington3,244Chesterfield6401,20159225330002,158
ChesterfieldRother4,939Chesterfield8292,151110158360003,284
ChesterfieldSt Helen's3,530Chesterfield5801,46980157620002,348
ChesterfieldSt Leonard's5,989Chesterfield1,3552,28325524670003,984
ChesterfieldWalton4,465Chesterfield1,5371,0912699640002,970
ChesterfieldWest4,655Chesterfield1,6831,00626287600003,098
 Total72,059 16,66126,2682,6131,61077700047,929

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chesterfield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Derbyshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Derbyshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Derbyshire North EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,630Chesterfield1,0241,352481316620003,235
ChesterfieldLowgates and Woodthorpe3,672Bolsover9621,4503174490002,566
North East DerbyshireAshover1,484Derbyshire North East81618921470001,037
North East DerbyshireBarlow and Holmesfield1,513Derbyshire North East7252233659150001,058
North East DerbyshireBrampton and Walton2,904Derbyshire North East1,5103912374300002,028
North East DerbyshireClay Cross North4,559Derbyshire North East1,2331,67246168660003,185
North East DerbyshireClay Cross South3,007Derbyshire North East7081,2525558280002,101
North East DerbyshireCoal Aston2,618Derbyshire North East1,1225726352210001,830
North East DerbyshireDronfield North3,246Derbyshire North East1,1531,0194529220002,268
North East DerbyshireDronfield South4,206Derbyshire North East1,7791,045504610002,939
North East DerbyshireDronfield Woodhouse2,782Derbyshire North East1,322536678110001,944
North East DerbyshireEckington North2,856Derbyshire North East84587954182370001,997
North East DerbyshireEckington South2,995Derbyshire North East7751,2043359210002,092
North East DerbyshireGosforth Valley3,992Derbyshire North East1,734927905340002,790
North East DerbyshireGrassmoor3,044Derbyshire North East7111,18953145300002,128
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh East2,990Derbyshire North East9341,0661452240002,090
North East DerbyshireKillamarsh West4,481Derbyshire North East1,2651,6915972450003,132
North East DerbyshireNorth Wingfield Central4,553Derbyshire North East1,2301,8182765420003,182
North East DerbyshireRenishaw2,141Derbyshire North East630808838120001,496
North East DerbyshireRidgeway and Marsh Lane1,447Derbyshire North East575397119190001,011
North East DerbyshireTupton3,138Derbyshire North East9311,1591852330002,193
North East DerbyshireUnstone1,488Derbyshire North East5753843725190001,040
North East DerbyshireWingerworth4,351Derbyshire North East2,2257006915310003,040
 Total72,097 24,78421,9231,3911,56571900050,382

The full details of these calculations are given on the Derbyshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Chesterfield

The new seat of Chesterfield is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Chesterfield
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChesterfieldBarrow Hill and New Whittington4,378Derbyshire North East1,0241,352481316620003,235
ChesterfieldBrimington North2,956Chesterfield5661,4497851150002,159
ChesterfieldBrimington South4,827Chesterfield9821,89616017290003,084
ChesterfieldBrockwell4,936Chesterfield1,1791,483320751090003,166
ChesterfieldDunston4,664Chesterfield9111,884134247370003,213
ChesterfieldHasland5,004Chesterfield1,1801,81921778550003,349
ChesterfieldHollingwood and Inkersall5,885Chesterfield1,4952,18088135530003,951
ChesterfieldHolmebrook3,142Chesterfield7371,30614547360002,271
ChesterfieldLinacre3,255Chesterfield959823154119330002,088
ChesterfieldLoundsley Green2,963Chesterfield6411,1759847520002,013
ChesterfieldMiddlecroft and Poolsbrook3,433Chesterfield6151,7555185120002,518
ChesterfieldMoor3,234Chesterfield7721,29713349240002,275
ChesterfieldOld Whittington3,133Chesterfield6401,20159225330002,158
ChesterfieldRother4,656Chesterfield8292,151110158360003,284
ChesterfieldSt Helen's3,440Chesterfield5801,46980157620002,348
ChesterfieldSt Leonard's6,011Chesterfield1,3552,28325524670003,984
ChesterfieldWalton4,720Chesterfield1,5371,0912699640002,970
ChesterfieldWest5,038Chesterfield1,6831,00626287600003,098
 Total75,675 17,68527,6203,0941,92683900051,164

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Chesterfield.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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