Cities of London and Westminster: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cities of London and Westminster: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: City of Westminster (London)
Electorate: 76,734
Turnout: 70.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,98244.4%
CON22,96342.5%
LIB5,1219.5%
Green1,1022.0%
UKIP5251.0%
OTH2840.5%
LAB Majority1,0191.9%

See overview of other seats in London.

Cities of London and Westminster : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cities of London and Westminster constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position20° Right11° Right
National Position33° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %28%40%52%
British Identity28%38%29%
Good Health47%50%48%
UK Born92%64%88%
Good Education45%48%39%
Good Job56%61%51%
High SEC58%55%51%
Average Age53.044.148.5
ABC1 Class60%62%53%

Cities of London and Westminster ranks #578 for "Leave", #16 for "Right" and #574 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cities of London and Westminster: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cities of London and Westminster been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Cities of London and Westminster

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cities of London and Westminster

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cities of London and Westminster, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cities of London and WestminsterTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of LondonAldersgate1,617Cities of London and Westminster4093342465180041,016
City of LondonAldgate27Cities of London and Westminster6621100016
City of LondonBassishaw6Cities of London and Westminster111000003
City of LondonBillingsgate14Cities of London and Westminster332000008
City of LondonBishopsgate105Cities of London and Westminster2526131000166
City of LondonBread Street15Cities of London and Westminster333000009
City of LondonBridge40Cities of London and Westminster101051000026
City of LondonBroad Street24Cities of London and Westminster7340000014
City of LondonCandlewick15Cities of London and Westminster423000009
City of LondonCastle Baynard287Cities of London and Westminster75593941001179
City of LondonCheap14Cities of London and Westminster332000008
City of LondonColeman Street2Cities of London and Westminster100000001
City of LondonCordwainer10Cities of London and Westminster222000006
City of LondonCornhill13Cities of London and Westminster432000009
City of LondonCripplegate2,347Cities of London and Westminster54753034373800101,475
City of LondonDowgate29Cities of London and Westminster8550000018
City of LondonFarringdon Within547Cities of London and Westminster1539186102002344
City of LondonFarringdon Without551Cities of London and Westminster1641056582002346
City of LondonLangbourn6Cities of London and Westminster111000003
City of LondonLime Street1Cities of London and Westminster000000000
City of LondonPortsoken723Cities of London and Westminster1232269623004454
City of LondonQueenhithe304Cities of London and Westminster76763351001192
City of LondonTower158Cities of London and Westminster35402301001100
City of LondonVintry3Cities of London and Westminster100000001
City of LondonWalbrook5Cities of London and Westminster210000003
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,753Cities of London and Westminster1,7871,2863881012300193,613
City of WestminsterChurchill5,398Cities of London and Westminster1,0571,911282356000463,391
City of WestminsterHyde Park5,928Kilburn1,9931,447169376100183,725
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia4,695Cities of London and Westminster2,0297271120750072,950
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street5,336Cities of London and Westminster1,8051,027419207100103,352
City of WestminsterSt James's5,996Cities of London and Westminster1,6871,438468926900123,766
City of WestminsterTachbrook4,895Cities of London and Westminster1,2891,27539960440083,075
City of WestminsterVincent Square5,951Cities of London and Westminster1,5511,743251807000433,738
City of WestminsterWarwick5,524Cities of London and Westminster1,6001,28346939720073,470
City of WestminsterWest End5,193Cities of London and Westminster1,5421,189336711000783,262
 Total61,532 18,00314,8564,2694248220027438,648

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cities of London and Westminster seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Holborn and St Pancras

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Holborn and St Pancras, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Holborn and St PancrasTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CamdenBloomsbury7,115Cities of London and Westminster1,2102,867426911730004,767
CamdenCamden Town with Primrose Hill8,246Camden and St Pancras1,2003,784332917000285,523
CamdenCantelowes7,786Camden and St Pancras6723,90041942160055,216
CamdenGospel Oak7,358Camden and St Pancras1,0593,38523713510200114,929
CamdenHaverstock8,115Camden and St Pancras8333,710715771010015,437
CamdenHighgate7,160Hampstead9893,20229733020034,796
CamdenHolborn and Covent Garden8,455Cities of London and Westminster1,2373,9932624710900155,663
CamdenKentish Town8,740Camden and St Pancras7944,1584836134800105,854
CamdenKing's Cross7,220Camden and St Pancras9673,254354282260074,836
CamdenRegent's Park8,840Camden and St Pancras1,1874,2312001921050045,919
CamdenSt Pancras and Somers Town9,052Camden and St Pancras6884,859296811300096,063
 Total88,087 10,83641,3434,0217281,982009359,003

The full details of these calculations are given on the Holborn and St Pancras seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Westminster North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Westminster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Westminster NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
City of WestminsterAbbey Road6,116Cities of London and Westminster2,3031,6461620300064,147
City of WestminsterBayswater5,643Kilburn1,5151,50170101010093,827
City of WestminsterChurch Street6,435Kilburn6823,5267905700204,364
City of WestminsterHarrow Road6,598Kilburn8133,487760920084,476
City of WestminsterLancaster Gate7,194Kilburn2,3551,9235080840084,878
City of WestminsterLittle Venice5,832Kilburn1,7751,9391990340063,953
City of WestminsterMaida Vale5,584Kilburn1,4492,0982010340043,786
City of WestminsterQueen's Park6,871Kilburn6063,8925509700104,660
City of WestminsterRegent's Park6,603Cities of London and Westminster2,2032,0671710290074,477
City of WestminsterWestbourne6,970Kilburn7213,85510103700134,727
 Total63,846 14,42225,9342,2530595009143,295

The full details of these calculations are given on the Westminster North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cities of London and Westminster

The new seat of Cities of London and Westminster is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Cities of London and Westminster
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CamdenBloomsbury5,016Holborn and St Pancras1,2102,867426911730004,767
CamdenHolborn and Covent Garden7,466Holborn and St Pancras1,2373,9932624710900155,663
City of LondonAldersgate1,451Cities of London and Westminster4093342465180041,016
City of LondonAldgate24Cities of London and Westminster6621100016
City of LondonBassishaw5Cities of London and Westminster111000003
City of LondonBillingsgate13Cities of London and Westminster332000008
City of LondonBishopsgate94Cities of London and Westminster2526131000166
City of LondonBread Street14Cities of London and Westminster333000009
City of LondonBridge36Cities of London and Westminster101051000026
City of LondonBroad Street22Cities of London and Westminster7340000014
City of LondonCandlewick14Cities of London and Westminster423000009
City of LondonCastle Baynard257Cities of London and Westminster75593941001179
City of LondonCheap13Cities of London and Westminster332000008
City of LondonColeman Street2Cities of London and Westminster100000001
City of LondonCordwainer9Cities of London and Westminster222000006
City of LondonCornhill12Cities of London and Westminster432000009
City of LondonCripplegate2,105Cities of London and Westminster54753034373800101,475
City of LondonDowgate26Cities of London and Westminster8550000018
City of LondonFarringdon Within491Cities of London and Westminster1539186102002344
City of LondonFarringdon Without494Cities of London and Westminster1641056582002346
City of LondonLangbourn5Cities of London and Westminster111000003
City of LondonLime Street1Cities of London and Westminster000000000
City of LondonPortsoken649Cities of London and Westminster1232269623004454
City of LondonQueenhithe272Cities of London and Westminster76763351001192
City of LondonTower142Cities of London and Westminster35402301001100
City of LondonVintry3Cities of London and Westminster100000001
City of LondonWalbrook5Cities of London and Westminster210000003
City of WestminsterAbbey Road5,469Westminster North2,3031,6461620300064,147
City of WestminsterBryanston and Dorset Square5,300Cities of London and Westminster1,7871,2863881012300193,613
City of WestminsterChurchill5,498Cities of London and Westminster1,0571,911282356000463,391
City of WestminsterKnightsbridge and Belgravia3,769Cities of London and Westminster2,0297271120750072,950
City of WestminsterMarylebone High Street4,772Cities of London and Westminster1,8051,027419207100103,352
City of WestminsterRegent's Park6,097Westminster North2,2032,0671710290074,477
City of WestminsterSt James's5,952Cities of London and Westminster1,6871,438468926900123,766
City of WestminsterTachbrook4,942Cities of London and Westminster1,2891,27539960440083,075
City of WestminsterVincent Square5,967Cities of London and Westminster1,5511,743251807000433,738
City of WestminsterWarwick5,491Cities of London and Westminster1,6001,28346939720073,470
City of WestminsterWest End4,836Cities of London and Westminster1,5421,189336711000783,262
 Total76,734 22,96323,9825,1215251,1020028453,977

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cities of London and Westminster.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)