Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 71,570
Turnout: 71.5%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON21,85342.7%
LAB19,39437.9%
LIB4,8099.4%
Plaid4,3148.4%
UKIP5541.1%
Green2460.5%
CON Majority2,4594.8%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position2° Left10° Left
National Position3° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity31%26%29%
Good Health51%47%48%
UK Born93%95%88%
Good Education44%36%39%
Good Job57%46%51%
High SEC60%46%51%
Average Age50.149.648.5
ABC1 Class62%47%53%

Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North ranks #199 for "Leave", #382 for "Right" and #287 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clwyd South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,763Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North40429524170476001,216
DenbighshireLlandrillo865Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North217118177023700596
DenbighshireLlangollen3,099Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North86987773290290002,138
WrexhamBronington2,376Wrexham1,12047135507001,638
WrexhamBrymbo3,084Wrexham1,1029362010058002,126
WrexhamBryn Cefn1,641Wrexham3197064910049001,133
WrexhamCefn3,870Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North8391,6571987067002,669
WrexhamChirk North1,868Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North398802760021001,288
WrexhamChirk South1,530Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North41358944009001,055
WrexhamCoedpoeth3,572Wrexham6941,40341500275002,463
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,642Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5734261421097001,131
WrexhamEsclusham2,105Wrexham6477131554022001,451
WrexhamGwenfro1,346Wrexham144701252003700927
WrexhamJohnstown2,491Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North723860470062001,719
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,559Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North523509132010001,075
WrexhamMarchwiel1,790Wrexham717483022012001,234
WrexhamMinera1,877Wrexham4447551231053001,295
WrexhamNew Broughton2,606Wrexham5651,1451632038001,796
WrexhamOverton2,509Wrexham1,217368134605001,730
WrexhamPant1,790Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4067222950028001,235
WrexhamPenycae1,670Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North352705132061001,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,893Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North495749203309001,306
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,482Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North223732521041001,022
WrexhamPonciau3,662Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North;
Wrexham
7711,429164370124002,525
WrexhamRuabon2,251Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4698512250205001,552
 Total54,341 14,64419,00273180102,2930037,471

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn45783570051001,350
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn488493200178001,161
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,15399315800225002,529
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn9478248300104001,958
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,3179554100226002,539
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7941,1792800380002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,7821,50630064003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn34843326003600843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3901,37212100290004,173
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd28019420031700793
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd315294500419001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn64279310072001,508
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn37462910057001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,1745751020087001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9051,27430200173003,654
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn95032270034001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd3303370009900766
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North342222120034000916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North811449310037001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4992501004600796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5705352900115001,249
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5193331400159001,025
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,1511,30711800411002,987
 Total58,262 19,53816,1041,094003,9200040,656

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: MontgomeryshireTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
PowysBanwy792Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1941171390167800544
PowysBerriew1,096Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3821431660224000753
PowysBlaen Hafren1,873Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,059221450258001,286
PowysCaersws1,860Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery70519728102174001,278
PowysChurchstoke1,268Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery368116355092400872
PowysDolforwyn1,574Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery62216121401671001,084
PowysForden1,152Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery53388129063600792
PowysGlantwymyn1,622Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North457252253029125001,116
PowysGuilsfield1,854Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North64122131002082001,274
PowysKerry1,636Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery72712122801039001,125
PowysLlanbrynmair730Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North2689499073300501
PowysLlandinam1,118Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3781301680256800769
PowysLlandrinio1,727Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58826325702357001,188
PowysLlandysilio1,398Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5032021920263900962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,435Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4221553200147500986
PowysLlanfihangel852Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North2711061350136100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,219Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North58870105076800838
PowysLlanidloes2,292Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery79428638303282001,577
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,773Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North9192919601361001,218
PowysLlansantffraid1,539Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6919722101335001,057
PowysLlanwddyn825Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North234881640166600568
PowysMachynlleth1,784Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North474305283033132001,227
PowysMeifod1,046Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3341381670225700718
PowysMontgomery1,095Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery3541651750263400754
PowysNewtown Central2,618Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery1,2612772420316001,799
PowysNewtown East1,639Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery34415648807132001,127
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn North1,798Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery4451096420932001,237
PowysNewtown Llanllwchaiarn West1,441Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery75677129091900990
PowysNewtown South1,507Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery29541427301045001,037
PowysRhiwcynon1,741Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery57619430302599001,197
PowysTrewern1,130Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4501331510172500776
PowysWelshpool Castle1,250Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North3922092080113900859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog2,251Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North6421817050316001,547
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,819Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North40822756401042001,251
 Total50,754 18,0755,5438,79005251,9600034,893

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn52862712008001,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4334314500251001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,21192310900233002,476
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4861,0647600105001,731
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Flint and Rhuddlan668530710011001,280
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North638442200062001,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Flint and Rhuddlan8801,01060020001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Flint and Rhuddlan1,187985190024002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Flint and Rhuddlan58549600037001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Flint and Rhuddlan1,3971,628360034003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Flint and Rhuddlan7831,0836008001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Flint and Rhuddlan1,1706203000154001,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Flint and Rhuddlan9571,307150015002,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Flint and Rhuddlan7741,13540081001,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Flint and Rhuddlan1,6432,397290024004,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Flint and Rhuddlan8311,993430097002,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Flint and Rhuddlan7511,5041100121002,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn522268112001000912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn42145910002400914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn590257000211001,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn59226313002200890
 Total56,892 17,04719,422667001,5520038,688

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North

The new seat of Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireCorwen1,826Clwyd South40429524170476001,216
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,567Vale of Clwyd4334314500251001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,575Vale of Clwyd1,21192310900233002,476
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,371Vale of Clwyd4861,0647600105001,731
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,316Clwyd West342222120034000916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,978Clwyd West811449310037001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,218Clwyd West4992501004600796
DenbighshireLlandrillo930Clwyd South217118177023700596
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,652Vale of Clwyd638442200062001,162
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,793Clwyd West5705352900115001,249
DenbighshireLlangollen3,319Clwyd South86987773290290002,138
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,478Clwyd West5193331400159001,025
DenbighshireRuthin4,372Clwyd West1,1511,30711800411002,987
PowysBanwy746Montgomeryshire1941171390167800544
PowysBerriew1,064Montgomeryshire3821431660224000753
PowysGuilsfield1,799Montgomeryshire64122131002082001,274
PowysLlandrinio1,656Montgomeryshire58826325702357001,188
PowysLlandysilio1,387Montgomeryshire5032021920263900962
PowysLlanfair Caereinion1,227Montgomeryshire4221553200147500986
PowysLlanfihangel872Montgomeryshire2711061350136100586
PowysLlanfyllin1,147Montgomeryshire58870105076800838
PowysLlanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin1,733Montgomeryshire9192919601361001,218
PowysLlansantffraid1,511Montgomeryshire6919722101335001,057
PowysLlanwddyn818Montgomeryshire234881640166600568
PowysMeifod1,040Montgomeryshire3341381670225700718
PowysTrewern1,054Montgomeryshire4501331510172500776
PowysWelshpool Castle954Montgomeryshire3922092080113900859
PowysWelshpool Gungrog1,772Montgomeryshire6421817050316001,547
PowysWelshpool Llanerchyddol1,652Montgomeryshire40822756401042001,251
WrexhamCefn3,709Clwyd South8391,6571987067002,669
WrexhamChirk North1,811Clwyd South398802760021001,288
WrexhamChirk South1,549Clwyd South41358944009001,055
WrexhamDyffryn Ceiriog / Ceiriog Valley1,670Clwyd South5734261421097001,131
WrexhamJohnstown2,415Clwyd South723860470062001,719
WrexhamLlangollen Rural1,578Clwyd South523509132010001,075
WrexhamPant1,534Clwyd South4067222950028001,235
WrexhamPenycae1,479Clwyd South352705132061001,151
WrexhamPenycae and Ruabon South1,898Clwyd South495749203309001,306
WrexhamPlas Madoc1,198Clwyd South223732521041001,022
WrexhamPonciau2,831Clwyd South6301,167134300101002,062
WrexhamRuabon2,071Clwyd South4698512250205001,552
 Total71,570 21,85319,3944,8095542464,3140051,170

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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