Conwy and Colwyn: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Conwy and Colwyn: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 77,613
Turnout: 72.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON27,89049.7%
LAB23,08841.1%
Plaid3,4566.2%
LIB1,7183.1%
CON Majority4,8028.6%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Conwy and Colwyn : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Conwy and Colwyn constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position1° Right10° Left
National Position1° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health54%47%48%
UK Born93%95%88%
Good Education38%36%39%
Good Job49%46%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age48.149.648.5
ABC1 Class51%47%53%

Conwy and Colwyn ranks #271 for "Leave", #308 for "Right" and #330 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Conwy and Colwyn: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Conwy and Colwyn been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Conwy and Colwyn

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd336176260016300701
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor1936482800175001,044
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6843281200111001,135
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor41236922004400847
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9491,1861400174002,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn1,0536753400190001,952
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4334648700228001,212
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,468656540063002,241
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd31322250032600866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn1,0619199600117002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd20221630026100682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn697502120045001,256
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn90986930900121002,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn870992750059001,996
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor2716012300138001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor4611,088140074001,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,698956560081002,791
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn647712100252001,612
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd241346170010300707
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,1641,5643800102002,868
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd272212150034300842
 Total45,250 14,33413,701941003,1700032,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn45783570051001,350
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn488493200178001,161
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,15399315800225002,529
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn9478248300104001,958
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,3179554100226002,539
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7941,1792800380002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,7821,50630064003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn34843326003600843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3901,37212100290004,173
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd28019420031700793
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd315294500419001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn64279310072001,508
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn37462910057001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,1745751020087001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9051,27430200173003,654
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn95032270034001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd3303370009900766
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North342222120034000916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North811449310037001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4992501004600796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5705352900115001,249
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5193331400159001,025
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,1511,30711800411002,987
 Total58,262 19,53816,1041,094003,9200040,656

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Vale of Clwyd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Vale of Clwyd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Vale of ClwydTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730Conwy and Colwyn52862712008001,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4334314500251001,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,640Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,21192310900233002,476
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,545Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4861,0647600105001,731
DenbighshireDyserth1,881Flint and Rhuddlan668530710011001,280
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,707Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North638442200062001,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817Flint and Rhuddlan8801,01060020001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,257Flint and Rhuddlan1,187985190024002,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645Flint and Rhuddlan58549600037001,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,552Flint and Rhuddlan1,3971,628360034003,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,765Flint and Rhuddlan7831,0836008001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,903Flint and Rhuddlan1,1706203000154001,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,373Flint and Rhuddlan9571,307150015002,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,933Flint and Rhuddlan7741,13540081001,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,018Flint and Rhuddlan1,6432,397290024004,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,360Flint and Rhuddlan8311,993430097002,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,511Flint and Rhuddlan7511,5041100121002,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,340Conwy and Colwyn522268112001000912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345Conwy and Colwyn42145910002400914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,556Conwy and Colwyn590257000211001,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308Conwy and Colwyn59226313002200890
 Total56,892 17,04719,422667001,5520038,688

The full details of these calculations are given on the Vale of Clwyd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Conwy and Colwyn

The new seat of Conwy and Colwyn is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Conwy and Colwyn
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,905Clwyd West45783570051001,350
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,626Clwyd West488493200178001,161
ConwyColwyn3,288Clwyd West1,15399315800225002,529
ConwyConwy3,227Aberconwy9491,1861400174002,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,801Aberconwy1,0536753400190001,952
ConwyDeganwy3,235Aberconwy1,468656540063002,241
ConwyEirias2,749Clwyd West9478248300104001,958
ConwyGele3,784Clwyd West1,3179554100226002,539
ConwyGlyn2,935Clwyd West7941,1792800380002,381
ConwyGogarth2,829Aberconwy1,0619199600117002,193
ConwyKinmel Bay4,506Clwyd West1,7821,50630064003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,323Clwyd West34843326003600843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos6,032Clwyd West2,3901,37212100290004,173
ConwyLlansanffraid1,807Aberconwy697502120045001,256
ConwyLlysfaen1,862Clwyd West64279310072001,508
ConwyMarl3,500Aberconwy90986930900121002,208
ConwyMochdre1,458Clwyd West37462910057001,061
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,751Aberconwy870992750059001,996
ConwyPenrhyn3,784Aberconwy1,698956560081002,791
ConwyPensarn2,075Aberconwy647712100252001,612
ConwyPentre Mawr2,747Clwyd West1,1745751020087001,938
ConwyRhiw4,909Clwyd West1,9051,27430200173003,654
ConwyTowyn1,842Clwyd West95032270034001,313
ConwyTudno3,606Aberconwy1,1641,5643800102002,868
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,583Vale of Clwyd52862712008001,175
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,375Vale of Clwyd522268112001000912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,265Vale of Clwyd42145910002400914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,496Vale of Clwyd590257000211001,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,313Vale of Clwyd59226313002200890
 Total77,613 27,89023,0881,718003,4560056,152

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Conwy and Colwyn.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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