Cumbria West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Cumbria West: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 78,253
Turnout: 71.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB31,43656.0%
CON21,50538.3%
UKIP1,9203.4%
LIB1,1432.0%
OTH1430.3%
LAB Majority9,93117.7%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Cumbria West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Cumbria West constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left6° Left
National Position7° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health45%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%37%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC50%48%51%
Average Age53.048.648.5
ABC1 Class50%50%53%

Cumbria West ranks #100 for "Leave", #459 for "Right" and #183 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Cumbria West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Cumbria West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Cumbria West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Copeland

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Copeland, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CopelandTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleCrummock1,181Penrith and Solway6837154130000821
AllerdaleDalton1,420Penrith and Solway641139128790000987
AllerdaleDerwent Valley1,231Penrith and Solway6668491150000856
AllerdaleKeswick3,992Penrith and Solway1,4708124514200002,775
CopelandArlecdon1,178Cumbria West57017932380000819
CopelandBeckermet2,312Cumbria West1,136417233100001,607
CopelandBootle987Cumbria West5501102510000686
CopelandBransty3,871Cumbria West1,6061,041123200002,691
CopelandCleator Moor North3,157Cumbria West5801,408320300002,194
CopelandCleator Moor South2,144Cumbria West3991,04534200001,489
CopelandDistington3,097Cumbria West6051,52191800002,153
CopelandEgremont North3,404Cumbria West1,0201,219497800002,366
CopelandEgremont South2,855Cumbria West8351,048327000001,985
CopelandEnnerdale774Cumbria West3788368100000539
CopelandFrizington1,956Cumbria West44887513600001,360
CopelandGosforth1,074Cumbria West5341783400000746
CopelandHarbour3,096Cumbria West1,0111,003647500002,153
CopelandHaverigg1,414Barrow and Furness50243812320000984
CopelandHensingham3,199Cumbria West6111,560114200002,224
CopelandHillcrest2,017Cumbria West84853316500001,402
CopelandHolborn Hill1,893Barrow and Furness694601101100001,316
CopelandKells1,875Cumbria West513708275600001,304
CopelandMillom Without1,055Barrow and Furness6017940130000733
CopelandMirehouse3,434Cumbria West6101,667317900002,387
CopelandMoresby1,057Cumbria West39332110110000735
CopelandNewtown2,673Barrow and Furness1,102676285200001,858
CopelandSandwith1,878Cumbria West3269686700001,307
CopelandSeascale2,154Cumbria West1,14230251200001,497
CopelandSt Bees1,374Cumbria West5872828610000956
 Total61,752 21,06119,3681,4071,094000042,930

The full details of these calculations are given on the Copeland seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Workington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Workington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WorkingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,710Penrith and Solway1,1531,2537949000322,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,607Penrith and Solway7828555593000181,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429Penrith and Solway80910955100014988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,220Penrith and Solway1,1199189873000202,228
AllerdaleChristchurch2,561Penrith and Solway951685124900041,773
AllerdaleClifton1,225Cumbria West25155414230004846
AllerdaleEllen2,508Penrith and Solway735868348900091,735
AllerdaleEllenborough2,900Cumbria West5071,3912374000112,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,681Cumbria West3811,34813104000101,856
AllerdaleFlimby1,309Cumbria West25957813520003905
AllerdaleHarrington2,438Cumbria West7657448573000201,687
AllerdaleHolme1,306Penrith and Solway70116323140002903
AllerdaleMarsh1,235Penrith and Solway5842402170002854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,860Cumbria West8571,6517254000362,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,832Cumbria West3232,2423637000132,651
AllerdaleNetherhall2,369Cumbria West4959672914400041,639
AllerdaleSeaton3,998Cumbria West1,0351,3897226500042,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,528Penrith and Solway1,1844143298000201,748
AllerdaleSolway1,244Penrith and Solway56426518110004862
AllerdaleSt John's4,118Cumbria West9021,72515242000282,849
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,986Cumbria West6001,9443617000082,758
AllerdaleStainburn1,321Cumbria West4284355450002915
AllerdaleWampool1,299Penrith and Solway7211462070004898
AllerdaleWaver1,387Penrith and Solway779158990005960
AllerdaleWharrels1,183Penrith and Solway50927717120003818
 Total60,254 17,39421,3191,1351,55500028041,683

The full details of these calculations are given on the Workington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Cumbria West

The new seat of Cumbria West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Cumbria West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleClifton1,237Workington25155414230004846
AllerdaleEllenborough2,760Workington5071,3912374000112,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,289Workington3811,34813104000101,856
AllerdaleFlimby1,295Workington25957813520003905
AllerdaleHarrington2,512Workington7657448573000201,687
AllerdaleMoorclose3,304Workington8571,6517254000362,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,210Workington3232,2423637000132,651
AllerdaleNetherhall2,210Workington4959672914400041,639
AllerdaleSeaton3,908Workington1,0351,3897226500042,765
AllerdaleSt John's4,257Workington9021,72515242000282,849
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,506Workington6001,9443617000082,758
AllerdaleStainburn1,431Workington4284355450002915
CopelandArlecdon1,170Copeland57017932380000819
CopelandBeckermet2,307Copeland1,136417233100001,607
CopelandBootle1,014Copeland5501102510000686
CopelandBransty3,777Copeland1,6061,041123200002,691
CopelandCleator Moor North3,129Copeland5801,408320300002,194
CopelandCleator Moor South2,007Copeland3991,04534200001,489
CopelandDistington3,053Copeland6051,52191800002,153
CopelandEgremont North3,208Copeland1,0201,219497800002,366
CopelandEgremont South2,832Copeland8351,048327000001,985
CopelandEnnerdale820Copeland3788368100000539
CopelandFrizington2,033Copeland44887513600001,360
CopelandGosforth1,114Copeland5341783400000746
CopelandHarbour3,169Copeland1,0111,003647500002,153
CopelandHensingham3,063Copeland6111,560114200002,224
CopelandHillcrest2,025Copeland84853316500001,402
CopelandKells1,956Copeland513708275600001,304
CopelandMirehouse3,124Copeland6101,667317900002,387
CopelandMoresby1,065Copeland39332110110000735
CopelandSandwith1,942Copeland3269686700001,307
CopelandSeascale2,198Copeland1,14230251200001,497
CopelandSt Bees1,328Copeland5872828610000956
 Total78,253 21,50531,4361,1431,92000014356,147

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Cumbria West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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