Dalriada: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dalriada: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ian Paisley  (DUP)
County/Area: Londonderry (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 74,266
Turnout: 63.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP23,54050.1%
SF11,10923.6%
SDLP4,3229.2%
UUP4,1728.9%
MIN2,6515.6%
OTH1,2292.6%
DUP Majority12,43126.4%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Dalriada: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dalriada been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dalriada

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Antrim East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Antrim and NewtownabbeyAbbey1,437Antrim East42315570010611819873
Antrim and NewtownabbeyBallyduff761Antrim West68428300207412461
Antrim and NewtownabbeyCarnmoney Hill355Antrim East1181370026295216
Antrim and NewtownabbeyJordanstown2,199Antrim East198128180057215351,335
Antrim and NewtownabbeyMonkstown2,514Antrim East226139350066245401,525
Antrim and NewtownabbeyRostulla3,107Antrim East280171,1540081303491,884
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,063Dalriada6923930600472142231,251
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin813Dalriada279412100186569493
Mid and East AntrimBallycarry and Glynn2,316Antrim East230128330090206331,404
Mid and East AntrimBoneybefore2,117Antrim East109148260070227371,283
Mid and East AntrimBurleigh Hill2,040Antrim East173107840050189311,237
Mid and East AntrimCairncastle2,297Antrim East12911864100247222361,393
Mid and East AntrimCarnlough and Glenarm2,207Antrim East12411461600237213341,338
Mid and East AntrimCastle2,546Antrim East131179940084273441,543
Mid and East AntrimCraigyhill2,833Antrim East15914579100304274441,717
Mid and East AntrimCurran and Inver2,419Antrim East240138690095215351,467
Mid and East AntrimGardenmore2,360Antrim East13212165900253228371,430
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry188Antrim West118720012112116
Mid and East AntrimGortalee2,307Antrim East196128860057213351,399
Mid and East AntrimGreenisland2,284Antrim East194128770056211341,384
Mid and East AntrimIslandmagee2,260Antrim East224128120089201321,370
Mid and East AntrimKilroot2,992Antrim East154201,1680099321521,814
Mid and East AntrimKilwaughter2,824Antrim East280151,01500111251411,713
Mid and East AntrimLove Lane2,286Antrim East118168920076245401,387
Mid and East AntrimSlemish244Antrim West1410930016132148
Mid and East AntrimSunnylands2,985Antrim East253151,1470074276451,810
Mid and East AntrimThe Maidens2,562Antrim East14413271600275248401,555
Mid and East AntrimVictoria2,630Antrim East135181,0260087282461,594
Mid and East AntrimWhitehead South2,485Antrim East246138920098221361,506
Mid and East AntrimWoodburn2,478Antrim East210139520061229371,502
 Total62,909 4,5271,27821,872003,5555,95196538,148

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Antrim North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Antrim North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Antrim NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,417Dalriada7511867200471116961,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,222Dalriada12815662900502541,424
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,332Dalriada13516365900528541,494
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,156Dalriada12415160900488541,381
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,642Dalriada15218574700597651,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,551Dalriada195631,1300001341111,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,425Dalriada14017068600549541,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,410Dalriada184591,0680001261051,542
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,469Dalriada7612068700480118981,579
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,549Dalriada79124708004961221011,630
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,738Dalriada15819277400620651,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,294Dalriada13216164900519541,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,596Dalriada50784450031077641,024
Mid and East AntrimAcademy1,911Antrim West337078500761421181,224
Mid and East AntrimAhoghill2,487Antrim West14601,006001821421181,594
Mid and East AntrimArdeevin2,459Antrim West42911,01000991821511,575
Mid and East AntrimBallee and Harryville2,320Antrim West119361,0620010589741,485
Mid and East AntrimBallykeel2,266Antrim West398493100911681391,452
Mid and East AntrimBraidwater2,287Antrim West408493900921691411,465
Mid and East AntrimBroughshane2,455Antrim West126381,1240011195791,573
Mid and East AntrimCastle Demesne2,346Antrim West418696500941741451,505
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,021Dalriada119081800148116961,297
Mid and East AntrimFair Green2,792Antrim West481031,147001112071721,788
Mid and East AntrimGalgorm2,206Antrim West1300892001611261041,413
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,309Dalriada119361,0570010589741,480
Mid and East AntrimGlenwhirry1,971Antrim West10231902009076631,264
Mid and East AntrimGrange2,399Antrim West1410970001751371141,537
Mid and East AntrimKells2,386Antrim West123371,0920010892761,528
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,119Dalriada10933970009682681,358
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,093Dalriada123084700153120991,342
Mid and East AntrimPark2,089Antrim West367785800841551281,338
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,134Dalriada1250863001561221011,367
Mid and East AntrimSlemish1,804Antrim West9328826008270581,157
 Total75,655 3,4822,57428,527007,8793,2832,72348,468

The full details of these calculations are given on the Antrim North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Londonderry East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Londonderry East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Londonderry EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAghadowey2,372Glenshane1941198300021780101,450
Causeway Coast and GlensAltahullion2,185Glenshane015039300656122161,337
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,869Dalriada1971021,174000251331,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallykelly2,110Glenshane014537900635118151,292
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,345Dalriada1911188200021580101,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,519Dalriada13025552000627911,542
Causeway Coast and GlensCoolessan2,018Glenshane83117736002613441,235
Causeway Coast and GlensDrumsurn2,362Glenshane97137860003064051,445
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,460Dalriada168881,006000215281,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDungiven2,174Glenshane014938900654121161,329
Causeway Coast and GlensFeeny2,283Glenshane015740900687127171,397
Causeway Coast and GlensGarvagh2,299Glenshane1871158040021178101,405
Causeway Coast and GlensGreysteel2,945Glenshane020252900885164211,801
Causeway Coast and GlensGreystone2,168Glenshane90125791002803751,328
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,516Dalriada172891,029000220291,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKilrea2,314Glenshane1891178090021279101,416
Causeway Coast and GlensMacosquin2,009Glenshane164101704001856891,231
Causeway Coast and GlensMagilligan2,514Glenshane104146916003264261,540
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,484Dalriada12825151200618911,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce1,977Dalriada13570810000173221,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,260Dalriada15581924000197261,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,722Dalriada141275562006771011,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRoeside1,993Glenshane82115726002583441,219
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,698Dalriada14027355800672911,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,983Dalriada154301615007421111,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,741Dalriada142277565006821011,677
Derry and StrabaneClaudy2,333Glenshane552067870028188111,428
Derry and StrabanePark2,384Glenshane3713956400593112151,460
 Total67,037 3,1354,42019,7210010,8802,53832841,022

The full details of these calculations are given on the Londonderry East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dalriada

The new seat of Dalriada is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dalriada
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Causeway Coast and GlensAtlantic2,446Londonderry East1971021,174000251331,757
Causeway Coast and GlensBallycastle2,351Antrim North7511867200471116961,548
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney East2,145Antrim North12815662900502541,424
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney North2,474Antrim North13516365900528541,494
Causeway Coast and GlensBallymoney South2,182Antrim North12415160900488541,381
Causeway Coast and GlensCastlerock2,529Londonderry East1911188200021580101,434
Causeway Coast and GlensChurchland2,572Londonderry East13025552000627911,542
Causeway Coast and GlensClogh Mills2,628Antrim North15218574700597651,692
Causeway Coast and GlensDervock2,396Antrim North195631,1300001341111,633
Causeway Coast and GlensDundooan2,431Londonderry East168881,006000215281,505
Causeway Coast and GlensDunloy2,485Antrim North14017068600549541,554
Causeway Coast and GlensGiant's Causeway2,439Antrim North184591,0680001261051,542
Causeway Coast and GlensHopefield2,474Londonderry East172891,029000220291,539
Causeway Coast and GlensKinbane2,570Antrim North7612068700480118981,579
Causeway Coast and GlensLoughguile and Stranocum2,509Antrim North79124708004961221011,630
Causeway Coast and GlensLurigethan2,085Antrim East6923930600472142231,251
Causeway Coast and GlensMountsandel2,399Londonderry East12825151200618911,519
Causeway Coast and GlensPortrush and Dunluce2,182Londonderry East13570810000173221,210
Causeway Coast and GlensPortstewart2,160Londonderry East15581924000197261,383
Causeway Coast and GlensQuarry2,497Londonderry East141275562006771011,666
Causeway Coast and GlensRasharkin2,590Antrim North15819277400620651,755
Causeway Coast and GlensRoute2,313Antrim North13216164900519541,470
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin854Antrim East2658190001664524509
Causeway Coast and GlensTorr Head and Rathlin1,696Antrim North511143760033088491,008
Causeway Coast and GlensUniversity2,113Londonderry East14027355800672911,653
Causeway Coast and GlensWaterside2,782Londonderry East154301615007421111,824
Causeway Coast and GlensWindy Hall2,682Londonderry East142277565006821011,677
Mid and East AntrimCullybackey2,035Antrim North119081800148116961,297
Mid and East AntrimGlenravel2,437Antrim North119361,0570010589741,480
Mid and East AntrimKirkinriola2,234Antrim North10933970009682681,358
Mid and East AntrimMaine2,267Antrim North123084700153120991,342
Mid and East AntrimPortglenone2,309Antrim North1250863001561221011,367
 Total74,266 4,1724,32223,5400011,1092,6511,22947,023

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dalriada.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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