Darlaston and Tipton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Darlaston and Tipton: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Adrian Bailey  (LAB)
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate: 76,902
Turnout: 61.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB27,09057.1%
CON16,73135.3%
UKIP2,8786.1%
LIB5151.1%
Green1810.4%
OTH230.0%
LAB Majority10,35921.8%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Darlaston and Tipton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Darlaston and Tipton constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position5° Left2° Right
National Position17° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %72%59%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born77%89%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job48%48%51%
High SEC42%46%51%
Average Age44.248.748.5
ABC1 Class53%49%53%

Darlaston and Tipton ranks #6 for "Leave", #419 for "Right" and #21 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Darlaston and Tipton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Darlaston and Tipton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Darlaston and Tipton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Walsall South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Walsall South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Walsall SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WalsallBentley and Darlaston North9,440Darlaston and Tipton1,8183,8636342800006,172
WalsallDarlaston South9,707Darlaston and Tipton1,9393,7197960900006,346
WalsallPaddock8,683Walsall and Oscott3,0732,449569800005,676
WalsallPalfrey11,307Walsall and Oscott2,1375,0139714500007,392
WalsallPheasey Park Farm7,654Walsall and Oscott2,7401,75716833800005,003
WalsallPleck10,377Darlaston and Tipton2,0184,638765200006,784
WalsallSt Matthew's10,248Walsall and Oscott2,6713,8484713400006,700
 Total67,416 16,39625,2875861,804000044,073

The full details of these calculations are given on the Walsall South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellCharlemont with Grove Vale8,754West Bromwich2,6712,49733011400475,362
SandwellFriar Park9,113West Bromwich2,0903,370650900475,581
SandwellGreat Barr with Yew Tree9,119West Bromwich2,3412,769330010200435,585
SandwellGreets Green and Lyng8,610Darlaston and Tipton;
West Bromwich
1,5423,5457606400475,274
SandwellHateley Heath10,197West Bromwich2,2593,8371907500566,246
SandwellNewton8,386West Bromwich2,2962,6788004200405,136
SandwellWest Bromwich Central9,653West Bromwich1,7523,96722012700445,912
 Total63,832 14,95122,66362505330032439,096

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Bromwich West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Bromwich West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West Bromwich WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellGreat Bridge9,632Darlaston and Tipton2,1132,68829394460005,270
SandwellOldbury9,992Warley1,9143,246201841050005,469
SandwellPrinces End9,360Darlaston and Tipton2,1462,4693346960005,123
SandwellTipton Green9,414Darlaston and Tipton2,0892,65872308260005,153
SandwellTividale9,227Warley2,2012,37853348690005,049
SandwellWednesbury North9,108Darlaston and Tipton1,9592,62474271570004,985
SandwellWednesbury South9,223Darlaston and Tipton1,9072,72552347150005,046
 Total65,956 14,32918,7883332,32132400036,095

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Bromwich West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Darlaston and Tipton

The new seat of Darlaston and Tipton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Darlaston and Tipton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
SandwellGreat Bridge9,166West Bromwich West2,1132,68829394460005,270
SandwellGreets Green and Lyng3,871West Bromwich East7421,7063703100232,539
SandwellPrinces End8,856West Bromwich West2,1462,4693346960005,123
SandwellTipton Green9,619West Bromwich West2,0892,65872308260005,153
SandwellWednesbury North8,959West Bromwich West1,9592,62474271570004,985
SandwellWednesbury South9,325West Bromwich West1,9072,72552347150005,046
WalsallBentley and Darlaston North8,927Walsall South1,8183,8636342800006,172
WalsallDarlaston South9,210Walsall South1,9393,7197960900006,346
WalsallPleck8,969Walsall South2,0184,638765200006,784
 Total76,902 16,73127,0905152,878181002347,418

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Darlaston and Tipton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)