Darlington: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Darlington: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jenny Chapman  (LAB)
County/Area: Durham (North East)
Electorate: 74,929
Turnout: 69.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB24,45047.2%
CON23,62445.6%
LIB1,5072.9%
UKIP1,3492.6%
Green8731.7%
LAB Majority8261.6%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Darlington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Darlington constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position1° Left8° Left
National Position4° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%58%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health48%44%48%
UK Born87%95%88%
Good Education42%35%39%
Good Job56%46%51%
High SEC54%44%51%
Average Age49.049.048.5
ABC1 Class57%47%53%

Darlington ranks #228 for "Leave", #361 for "Right" and #267 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Darlington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Darlington been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Darlington

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Darlington

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Darlington, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DarlingtonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBank Top and Lascelles5,297Darlington1,1642,08249246370003,578
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale4,454Darlington1,6131,2707015420003,010
DarlingtonCockerton4,598Darlington9481,94810975260003,106
DarlingtonCollege3,103Darlington1,2836756238370002,095
DarlingtonEastbourne5,112Darlington1,3531,9773669190003,454
DarlingtonHarrowgate Hill4,512Darlington1,4641,44310519160003,047
DarlingtonHaughton and Springfield4,613Darlington1,0301,9731568310003,117
DarlingtonHummersknott2,781Darlington1,260530761110001,878
DarlingtonMowden2,711Darlington1,10464376980001,831
DarlingtonNorth Road4,772Darlington1,2131,578245159300003,225
DarlingtonNorthgate3,262Darlington8321,313611420002,204
DarlingtonPark East5,174Darlington1,2541,92761190640003,496
DarlingtonPark West3,164Darlington1,360676611400002,138
DarlingtonPierremont4,440Darlington1,2011,633925690003,000
DarlingtonRed Hall and Lingfield2,719Darlington7579832461110001,836
DarlingtonStephenson2,647Darlington6171,101434320001,788
DarlingtonWhinfield2,982Darlington949930812090002,016
 Total66,341 19,40222,6821,0301,18152400044,819

The full details of these calculations are given on the Darlington seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sedgefield

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sedgefield, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: SedgefieldTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale21Darlington6600100013
DarlingtonHeighington and Coniscliffe3,326Darlington1,514541910910002,165
DarlingtonHurworth2,708Darlington752416406231660001,763
DarlingtonPark East146Darlington274858600094
DarlingtonSadberge and Middleton St George4,530Darlington1,92375757127850002,949
DurhamAycliffe East6,320Billingham and Sedgefield1,6352,20023175810004,114
DurhamAycliffe North and Middridge8,010Billingham and Sedgefield2,0483,0302866420005,214
DurhamAycliffe West6,173Billingham and Sedgefield1,5562,23653130450004,020
DurhamBishop Middleham and Cornforth2,873Billingham and Sedgefield5111,2841342190001,869
DurhamBlackhalls839Hartlepool1543651224000546
DurhamChilton2,977Billingham and Sedgefield6531,13927103160001,938
DurhamFerryhill7,544Billingham and Sedgefield2,0862,50677202400004,911
DurhamSedgefield6,221Billingham and Sedgefield1,9741,8968862310004,051
DurhamTrimdon and Thornley9,019Durham, City of, and Easington7244,3797725360005,871
DurhamWingate3,183Hartlepool5791,399269230002,072
 Total63,890 16,14222,2027961,76468600041,590

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sedgefield seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Darlington

The new seat of Darlington is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Darlington
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DarlingtonBank Top and Lascelles4,550Darlington1,1642,08249246370003,578
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale4,532Darlington1,6121,2707015430003,010
DarlingtonBrinkburn and Faverdale21Sedgefield7600000013
DarlingtonCockerton4,534Darlington9481,94810975260003,106
DarlingtonCollege3,288Darlington1,2836756238370002,095
DarlingtonEastbourne4,571Darlington1,3531,9773669190003,454
DarlingtonHarrowgate Hill4,809Darlington1,4641,44310519160003,047
DarlingtonHaughton and Springfield4,733Darlington1,0301,9731568310003,117
DarlingtonHeighington and Coniscliffe3,276Sedgefield1,514541910910002,165
DarlingtonHummersknott3,168Darlington1,260530761110001,878
DarlingtonHurworth2,867Sedgefield752416406231660001,763
DarlingtonMowden3,102Darlington1,10464376980001,831
DarlingtonNorth Road4,231Darlington1,2131,578245159300003,225
DarlingtonNorthgate2,453Darlington8321,313611420002,204
DarlingtonPark East4,365Darlington1,2461,92164193680003,492
DarlingtonPark East123Sedgefield355425200098
DarlingtonPark West3,282Darlington1,360676611400002,138
DarlingtonPierremont4,233Darlington1,2011,633925690003,000
DarlingtonRed Hall and Lingfield2,548Darlington7579832461110001,836
DarlingtonSadberge and Middleton St George4,598Sedgefield1,92375757127850002,949
DarlingtonStephenson2,474Darlington6171,101434320001,788
DarlingtonWhinfield3,171Darlington949930812090002,016
 Total74,929 23,62424,4501,5071,34987300051,803

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Darlington.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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