Devon North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Devon North: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Peter Heaton-Jones  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 73,240
Turnout: 76.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,51645.8%
LIB21,18338.0%
LAB7,06412.7%
UKIP1,1892.1%
Green7521.3%
CON Majority4,3337.8%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Devon North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Devon North constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right1° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC48%52%51%
Average Age49.550.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Devon North ranks #210 for "Leave", #278 for "Right" and #274 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Devon North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Devon North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Devon North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,739Devon North1,2493431,041101120002,746
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,538Devon North48918742420110001,131
North DevonBratton Fleming1,695Devon North6461823855290001,247
North DevonBraunton East3,188Devon North1,0372749825470002,345
North DevonBraunton West3,361Devon North1,24426893311140002,470
North DevonCentral Town3,955Devon North9784091,43725570002,906
North DevonChittlehampton1,916Devon North77816540341210001,408
North DevonChulmleigh1,665Devon North6856539071120001,223
North DevonCombe Martin3,200Devon North1,24926076638390002,352
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,723Devon North9534171,31319350002,737
North DevonFremington3,497Devon North1,129465812150140002,570
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe3,044Devon North1,1621308982470002,239
North DevonHeanton Punchardon2,169Devon North1,0231384028230001,594
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,642Devon North1,171533795113650002,677
North DevonIlfracombe East1,918Devon North64924047133160001,409
North DevonIlfracombe West3,779Devon North9733801,193180510002,777
North DevonInstow1,194Devon North60057208113000879
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw3,896Devon North1,4702701,01270420002,864
North DevonLongbridge3,301Devon North1,28024486126160002,427
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,341Devon North502119348512000986
North DevonMarwood1,512Devon North55654492470001,113
North DevonNewport3,749Devon North1,2732981,10923530002,756
North DevonNorth Molton1,781Devon North927642818290001,309
North DevonPilton3,574Devon North9124021,24733330002,627
North DevonSouth Molton3,966Devon North1,2344081,22131200002,914
North DevonWitheridge1,870Devon North58623551523150001,374
North DevonYeo Valley3,570Devon North7614571,244143190002,624
 Total75,783 25,5167,06421,1831,18975200055,704

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Devon North

The new seat of Devon North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Devon North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North DevonBickington and Roundswell3,523Devon North1,2493431,041101120002,746
North DevonBishop's Nympton1,715Devon North48918742420110001,131
North DevonBratton Fleming1,668Devon North6461823855290001,247
North DevonBraunton East3,208Devon North1,0372749825470002,345
North DevonBraunton West3,403Devon North1,24426893311140002,470
North DevonCentral Town3,468Devon North9784091,43725570002,906
North DevonChittlehampton2,010Devon North77816540341210001,408
North DevonChulmleigh1,827Devon North6856539071120001,223
North DevonCombe Martin3,243Devon North1,24926076638390002,352
North DevonForches and Whiddon Valley3,035Devon North9534171,31319350002,737
North DevonFremington3,609Devon North1,129465812150140002,570
North DevonGeorgeham and Mortehoe2,881Devon North1,1621308982470002,239
North DevonHeanton Punchardon1,522Devon North1,0231384028230001,594
North DevonIlfracombe Central3,229Devon North1,171533795113650002,677
North DevonIlfracombe East1,972Devon North64924047133160001,409
North DevonIlfracombe West3,468Devon North9733801,193180510002,777
North DevonInstow1,244Devon North60057208113000879
North DevonLandkey, Swimbridge and Taw4,003Devon North1,4702701,01270420002,864
North DevonLongbridge3,378Devon North1,28024486126160002,427
North DevonLynton and Lynmouth1,391Devon North502119348512000986
North DevonMarwood1,565Devon North55654492470001,113
North DevonNewport3,557Devon North1,2732981,10923530002,756
North DevonNorth Molton1,753Devon North927642818290001,309
North DevonPilton3,455Devon North9124021,24733330002,627
North DevonSouth Molton3,904Devon North1,2344081,22131200002,914
North DevonWitheridge1,942Devon North58623551523150001,374
North DevonYeo Valley3,267Devon North7614571,244143190002,624
 Total73,240 25,5167,06421,1831,18975200055,704

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Devon North.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)