Don Valley: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Don Valley: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Caroline Flint  (LAB)
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 74,947
Turnout: 63.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB25,31753.0%
CON19,20440.2%
MIN1,6423.4%
LIB7931.7%
UKIP4711.0%
OTH3470.7%
LAB Majority6,11312.8%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Don Valley : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Don Valley constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left3° Left
National Position14° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %69%58%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education40%36%39%
Good Job55%47%51%
High SEC58%46%51%
Average Age50.448.548.5
ABC1 Class59%49%53%

Don Valley ranks #25 for "Leave", #406 for "Right" and #43 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Don Valley: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Don Valley been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Don Valley

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Don Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Don Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Don ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoncasterConisbrough12,413Don Valley2,1965,2098700022307,715
DoncasterEdlington and Warmsworth8,808Don Valley1,8213,470870009705,475
DoncasterFinningley11,464Don Valley4,1342,64521100013707,127
DoncasterHatfield13,038Don Valley3,4564,33814700016308,104
DoncasterRossington and Bawtry13,255Don Valley3,4644,05320500051608,238
DoncasterThorne and Moorends9,101Doncaster North1,9363,3167900032605,657
DoncasterTickhill and Wadworth5,910Don Valley2,1771,3194000013703,673
 Total73,989 19,18424,3508560001,599045,989

The full details of these calculations are given on the Don Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Doncaster Central

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Doncaster Central, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Doncaster CentralTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoncasterArmthorpe9,878Doncaster Central1,7863,6821810001561225,927
DoncasterBalby South6,966Doncaster Central1,3732,6133300088724,179
DoncasterBessacarr9,822Doncaster Central2,7112,3414420002381625,894
DoncasterEdenthorpe and Kirk Sandall6,767Doncaster Central1,6311,9951230001741364,059
DoncasterHexthorpe and Balby North8,610Doncaster Central1,2233,570410001861455,165
DoncasterStainforth and Barnby Dun2,368Doncaster Central546817300032241,422
DoncasterTickhill and Wadworth1,561Don Valley52532460004535935
DoncasterTown13,480Doncaster Central2,5984,991540002591858,087
DoncasterWheatley Hills and Intake12,264Doncaster Central2,3914,581900001691257,356
 Total71,716 14,78424,9149730001,3471,00643,024

The full details of these calculations are given on the Doncaster Central seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Doncaster North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Doncaster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Doncaster NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoncasterAdwick le Street and Carcroft12,317Doncaster North1,4595,0271454180076767,201
DoncasterBentley12,843Doncaster North1,6915,03916441200911117,508
DoncasterMexborough11,132Don Valley1,4313,95910471003243126,507
DoncasterNorton and Askern11,131Doncaster North2,1053,7711373550080606,508
DoncasterRoman Ridge8,383Doncaster North1,4432,8601163980041434,901
DoncasterSprotbrough8,174Doncaster North2,2642,1041012200047434,779
DoncasterStainforth and Barnby Dun4,587Doncaster Central7611,58672710028302,683
DoncasterThorne and Moorends3,806Doncaster North5321,366271920053542,224
 Total72,373 11,68625,7127072,7370074072942,311

The full details of these calculations are given on the Doncaster North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Don Valley

The new seat of Don Valley is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Don Valley
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoncasterConisbrough11,443Don Valley2,1965,2098700022307,715
DoncasterEdlington and Warmsworth7,729Don Valley1,8213,470870009705,475
DoncasterFinningley12,233Don Valley4,1342,64521100013707,127
DoncasterHatfield11,324Don Valley3,4564,33814700016308,104
DoncasterMexborough11,263Doncaster North1,4313,95910471003243126,507
DoncasterRossington and Bawtry12,842Don Valley3,4644,05320500051608,238
DoncasterTickhill and Wadworth6,418Don Valley2,1371,30036000144283,645
DoncasterTickhill and Wadworth1,695Doncaster Central56534310000387963
 Total74,947 19,20425,317793471001,64234747,774

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Don Valley.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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