Dorset Mid: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dorset Mid: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Michael Tomlinson  (CON)
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
Electorate: 77,172
Turnout: 77.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON36,98861.6%
LIB13,85523.1%
LAB8,55514.3%
Green6181.0%
CON Majority23,13338.5%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Dorset Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dorset Mid constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right1° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born97%92%88%
Good Education45%40%39%
Good Job55%50%51%
High SEC57%52%51%
Average Age53.850.548.5
ABC1 Class58%54%53%

Dorset Mid ranks #281 for "Leave", #179 for "Right" and #281 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dorset Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dorset Mid been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dorset Mid

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Christchurch

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Christchurch, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ChristchurchTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ChristchurchBurton and Winkton3,500Christchurch1,6026442200540002,520
ChristchurchGrange4,099Christchurch1,4151,05535201280002,950
ChristchurchHighcliffe2,907Christchurch1,574360151090002,094
ChristchurchJumpers3,673Christchurch1,44379226301470002,645
ChristchurchMudeford and Friars Cliff4,195Christchurch2,2395841600380003,021
ChristchurchNorth Highcliffe and Walkford3,058Christchurch1,6953221370470002,201
ChristchurchPortfield3,765Christchurch1,5648462370640002,711
ChristchurchPurewell and Stanpit3,602Christchurch1,64757819401740002,593
ChristchurchSt Catherine's and Hurn3,126Christchurch1,711429850250002,250
ChristchurchTown Centre3,536Christchurch1,48562521102240002,545
ChristchurchWest Highcliffe4,706Christchurch2,5715312680190003,389
East DorsetAmeysford2,444Christchurch1,3482391490230001,759
East DorsetColehill East1,063Dorset Mid421101229014000765
East DorsetFerndown Central7,077Christchurch3,6949534230240005,094
East DorsetHampreston and Longham2,914Christchurch1,6303021500160002,098
East DorsetParley4,534Christchurch2,50937423701450003,265
East DorsetSt Leonards5,770Christchurch3,3665272240380004,155
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt6,363Christchurch3,31679733201360004,581
 Total70,332 35,23010,0594,02201,32500050,636

The full details of these calculations are given on the Christchurch seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dorset Mid and Poole North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dorset Mid and Poole North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dorset Mid and Poole NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetColehill East3,903Dorset Mid1,714313869000002,896
East DorsetColehill West2,025Dorset Mid983124395000001,502
East DorsetCorfe Mullen8,223Dorset Mid3,7428401,517000006,099
East DorsetStour197Dorset Mid112161800000146
East DorsetWimborne Minster5,080Dorset Mid2,0516441,074000003,769
PooleBroadstone8,253Dorset Mid3,8216601,640000006,121
PooleCanford Heath East5,842Poole2,3126981,324000004,334
PooleCanford Heath West5,482Poole2,362747957000004,066
PooleMerley and Bearwood8,369Dorset Mid3,8356911,681000006,207
PurbeckBere Regis1,400Dorset Mid72757255000001,039
PurbeckLytchett Matravers2,802Dorset Mid1,261236581000002,078
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton East3,421Dorset Mid1,356327855000002,538
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton West2,995Dorset Mid1,395316511000002,222
PurbeckSt Martin2,650Dorset Mid1,160214592000001,966
PurbeckWareham4,413Dorset Mid1,755540979000003,274
 Total65,055 28,5866,42313,2480000048,257

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dorset Mid and Poole North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dorset North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dorset North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dorset NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,532Dorset Mid1,2323531960650001,846
East DorsetCrane2,619Dorset Mid1,6391361100270001,912
East DorsetHandley Vale2,273Dorset Mid1,3861191310220001,658
East DorsetSt Leonards1,239Christchurch6951416304000903
East DorsetStour2,011Dorset Mid1,0102811540220001,467
East DorsetVerwood East4,627Christchurch2,7913222440190003,376
East DorsetVerwood West5,322Christchurch1,7831,4356440210003,883
East DorsetWest Moors and Holt1,057Christchurch52316772010000772
North DorsetAbbey3,086Dorset Mid1,67731813601200002,251
North DorsetBlackmore2,857Dorset West1,4863481810690002,084
North DorsetBlandford Central3,301Dorset Mid1,0226926020920002,408
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,704Dorset Mid7063711290360001,242
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,548Dorset Mid5591803710190001,129
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,598Dorset Mid6281303740340001,166
North DorsetBulbarrow1,551Warminster and Shaftesbury7502001060740001,130
North DorsetGillingham Rural3,298Warminster and Shaftesbury1,6222834790210002,405
North DorsetGillingham Town4,948Warminster and Shaftesbury1,9018287940860003,609
North DorsetHill Forts5,294Warminster and Shaftesbury2,67071431801610003,863
North DorsetLower Tarrants2,607Dorset Mid1,3482941750850001,902
North DorsetLydden Vale1,525Dorset West860111740680001,113
North DorsetMotcombe and Bourton3,604Warminster and Shaftesbury1,92638618101370002,630
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman3,308Dorset Mid1,4486022810820002,413
North DorsetShaftesbury East2,733Warminster and Shaftesbury1,0596173000170001,993
North DorsetShaftesbury West3,120Warminster and Shaftesbury1,05246066401010002,277
North DorsetSturminster Newton3,411Warminster and Shaftesbury1,5813604550930002,489
North DorsetThe Beacon1,799Warminster and Shaftesbury1,118105750140001,312
North DorsetThe Stours and Marnhull3,413Warminster and Shaftesbury1,69644024601080002,490
 Total76,385 36,16810,3937,55501,60700055,723

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dorset North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dorset Mid

The new seat of Dorset Mid is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dorset Mid
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DorsetAlderholt2,444Dorset North1,2323531960650001,846
East DorsetColehill East1,048Christchurch4578923503000784
East DorsetColehill East3,850Dorset Mid and Poole North1,6783258630110002,877
East DorsetColehill West2,042Dorset Mid and Poole North983124395000001,502
East DorsetCorfe Mullen7,908Dorset Mid and Poole North3,7428401,517000006,099
East DorsetCrane2,512Dorset North1,6391361100270001,912
East DorsetHandley Vale2,278Dorset North1,3861191310220001,658
East DorsetStour194Dorset Mid and Poole North100261502000143
East DorsetStour1,983Dorset North1,0222711570200001,470
East DorsetWimborne Minster4,998Dorset Mid and Poole North2,0516441,074000003,769
North DorsetAbbey2,913Dorset North1,67731813601200002,251
North DorsetBlandford Central2,999Dorset North1,0226926020920002,408
North DorsetBlandford Hilltop1,537Dorset North7063711290360001,242
North DorsetBlandford Langton St Leonards1,513Dorset North5591803710190001,129
North DorsetBlandford Old Town1,318Dorset North6281303740340001,166
North DorsetLower Tarrants1,484Dorset North1,3482941750850001,902
North DorsetRiversdale and Portman2,757Dorset North1,4486022810820002,413
PooleBroadstone8,335Dorset Mid and Poole North3,8216601,640000006,121
PooleMerley and Bearwood7,965Dorset Mid and Poole North3,8356911,681000006,207
PurbeckBere Regis1,352Dorset Mid and Poole North72757255000001,039
PurbeckLytchett Matravers2,712Dorset Mid and Poole North1,261236581000002,078
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton East3,058Dorset Mid and Poole North1,356327855000002,538
PurbeckLytchett Minster and Upton West3,039Dorset Mid and Poole North1,395316511000002,222
PurbeckSt Martin2,506Dorset Mid and Poole North1,160214592000001,966
PurbeckWareham4,427Dorset Mid and Poole North1,755540979000003,274
 Total77,172 36,9888,55513,855061800060,016

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dorset Mid.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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