Dover and Deal: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dover and Deal: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Charlie Elphicke  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 74,735
Turnout: 70.9%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON28,83354.4%
LAB19,81837.4%
LIB1,7333.3%
UKIP1,6633.1%
Green9231.7%
OTH70.0%
CON Majority9,01517.0%

See overview of other seats in South East.

Dover and Deal : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dover and Deal constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right
National Position8° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health46%49%48%
UK Born95%88%88%
Good Education41%43%39%
Good Job47%56%51%
High SEC51%57%51%
Average Age53.549.248.5
ABC1 Class50%60%53%

Dover and Deal ranks #107 for "Leave", #320 for "Right" and #163 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dover and Deal: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dover and Deal been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dover and Deal

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dover

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dover, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: DoverTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverAylesham3,746Canterbury and Faversham8571,5994093220002,611
DoverBuckland5,789Dover and Deal1,8491,86519272300004,035
DoverCapel-le-Ferne1,800Dover and Deal7922741374380001,254
DoverCastle1,711Dover and Deal6904194424170001,194
DoverEastry3,933Dover and Deal1,58685014991480002,742
DoverEythorne and Shepherdswell3,678Dover and Deal1,4351,060819410002,563
DoverLydden and Temple Ewell1,785Dover and Deal7384132254170001,244
DoverMaxton, Elms Vale and Priory5,886Dover and Deal2,1281,63970192730004,102
DoverMiddle Deal and Sholden5,710Dover and Deal2,0401,5791271271070003,980
DoverMill Hill5,971Dover and Deal1,6762,19587165380004,161
DoverNorth Deal5,660Dover and Deal2,0461,48326369860003,947
DoverRingwould1,528Dover and Deal66732066390001,065
DoverRiver3,439Dover and Deal1,6206721368240002,397
DoverSt Margaret's-at-Cliffe3,945Dover and Deal1,8537953248220002,750
DoverSt Radigunds4,308Dover and Deal1,3781,38524184310003,002
DoverTower Hamlets4,471Dover and Deal1,2911,465361541690003,115
DoverTown and Pier1,584Dover and Deal481521188140001,105
DoverWalmer5,690Dover and Deal2,3661,4426734560003,965
DoverWhitfield3,929Dover and Deal1,72080013077110002,738
 Total74,563 27,21320,7761,3351,72392300051,970

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dover seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thanet South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thanet South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thanet SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverLittle Stour and Ashstone5,261Dover and Deal2,47764143833220073,618
DoverSandwich5,281Thanet East and Sandwich2,172964375941700103,632
ThanetBeacon Road3,512Thanet East and Sandwich1,1881,02844131600172,414
ThanetBradstowe3,001Thanet East and Sandwich1,21367942892300172,063
ThanetCentral Harbour6,054Thanet East and Sandwich1,7101,8907920020800764,163
ThanetCliffsend and Pegwell3,593Thanet East and Sandwich1,438789241713600142,472
ThanetCliftonville East4,719Thanet East and Sandwich1,8851,026352681000223,246
ThanetCliftonville West6,802Thanet East and Sandwich1,9962,0793741111900364,678
ThanetEastcliff6,056Thanet East and Sandwich1,6871,9313031417500284,165
ThanetKingsgate1,599Thanet East and Sandwich746275165740021,100
ThanetNethercourt3,441Thanet East and Sandwich1,12297756187160082,366
ThanetNewington3,831Thanet East and Sandwich9351,41360207130072,635
ThanetNorthwood4,859Thanet East and Sandwich1,4171,52738333190093,343
ThanetSir Moses Montefiore3,799Thanet East and Sandwich1,1251,17377165660062,612
ThanetSt Peters5,266Thanet East and Sandwich2,0141,293931911800123,621
ThanetViking5,267Thanet East and Sandwich2,1371,190701465600243,623
 Total72,341 25,26218,8751,5142,9978080029549,751

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thanet South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dover and Deal

The new seat of Dover and Deal is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dover and Deal
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DoverBuckland5,355Dover1,8491,86519272300004,035
DoverCapel-le-Ferne2,012Dover7922741374380001,254
DoverCastle1,637Dover6904194424170001,194
DoverEastry3,980Dover1,58685014991480002,742
DoverEythorne and Shepherdswell3,723Dover1,4351,060819410002,563
DoverLittle Stour and Ashstone5,445Thanet South2,47764143833220073,618
DoverLydden and Temple Ewell1,957Dover7384132254170001,244
DoverMaxton, Elms Vale and Priory5,128Dover2,1281,63970192730004,102
DoverMiddle Deal and Sholden5,966Dover2,0401,5791271271070003,980
DoverMill Hill5,995Dover1,6762,19587165380004,161
DoverNorth Deal5,593Dover2,0461,48326369860003,947
DoverRingwould1,687Dover66732066390001,065
DoverRiver3,765Dover1,6206721368240002,397
DoverSt Margaret's-at-Cliffe3,481Dover1,8537953248220002,750
DoverSt Radigunds3,540Dover1,3781,38524184310003,002
DoverTower Hamlets3,931Dover1,2911,465361541690003,115
DoverTown and Pier1,427Dover481521188140001,105
DoverWalmer6,093Dover2,3661,4426734560003,965
DoverWhitfield4,020Dover1,72080013077110002,738
 Total74,735 28,83319,8181,7331,66392300752,977

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dover and Deal.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)