Down North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down North: Overview

 Projection: DUP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (DUP)
County/Area: Down (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,956
Turnout: 56.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
DUP19,14146.9%
MIN15,21337.2%
Green2,1275.2%
SDLP1,5853.9%
SF9442.3%
OTH9352.3%
UUP9032.2%
DUP Majority3,9289.6%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Down North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down North

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Down North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastGarnerville219Belfast East0046073614121
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,191Down North0053404318581351,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,420Down North00728013225948571,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,643Down North00562010219732441,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,967Down North0072305924787481,641
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,899Down North00618011121802491,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,618Down North00557010019725441,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,586Down North02958808517670411,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore843Down North03728100331097467
North Down and ArdsCastle2,864Down North00610011021794481,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,646Down North030619020019560341,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,681Down North030628020319568341,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,930Down North0071405824777471,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,569Down North0062505121682411,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour3,297Down North00703012624914551,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,555Down North029598019318541331,412
North Down and ArdsHolywood3,146Belfast East036736023823666401,739
North Down and ArdsKilcooley3,013Down North03368509819781471,663
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,157Down North05138600451509641
North Down and ArdsLoughview3,445Belfast East039805026125730441,904
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,462Down North02755908116638391,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,611Down North02959408517677411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch3,016Down North0073405924800481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,738Down North03062309018709431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,818Down North0068705523747451,557
 Total64,334 040014,94302,54753516,14997735,551

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Belfast South16411180423414247
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Belfast South717520210182108
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,985Belfast South6308110940209191,196
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,042Down Mid289254939024138174151,833
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,884Down South17915758201585108101,136
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,488Down Mid237207768020113142131,500
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,777Down Mid264231857022126159141,673
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,848Down Mid270237879023129162141,714
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,942Down Mid23501,2100290274241,772
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,120Down North1882621,20001896108101,882
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,061Down North123172793012637261,241
North Down and ArdsComber North2,691Down Mid21601,1070260250221,621
North Down and ArdsComber South2,551Down Mid20501,0490250237211,537
North Down and ArdsComber West2,619Down Mid21001,0770260243221,578
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,969Down Mid16401,1330280426381,789
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,193Down Mid17601,2190300457411,923
North Down and ArdsGlen2,976Down Mid16401,1360280427381,793
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,454Down Mid13509370230352311,478
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,425Down Mid19509970240225201,461
North Down and ArdsKircubbin3,001Down North1802511,1540179110491,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,408Down North841185420843484847
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,054Down Mid16901,1660280438391,840
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,653Down North1602221,020015819281,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,799Down North1682351,076016869791,687
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,688Down Mid14801,0270250385341,619
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,116Down Mid17201,1900290447401,878
 Total64,330 4,4172,40424,03906111,0845,69550738,757

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down North

The new seat of Down North is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down North
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North Down and ArdsBallycrochan2,583Down North0053404318581351,211
North Down and ArdsBallygrainey3,179Down North00728013225948571,890
North Down and ArdsBallyholme2,870Down North00562010219732441,459
North Down and ArdsBallymagee2,974Down North0072305924787481,641
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,147Strangford1882621,20001896108101,882
North Down and ArdsBloomfield2,784Down North00618011121802491,601
North Down and ArdsBroadway2,748Down North00557010019725441,445
North Down and ArdsBryansburn2,842Down North02958808517670411,430
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore840Down North36603110328524494
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,062Strangford87149763096812991,214
North Down and ArdsCastle2,752Down North00610011021794481,583
North Down and ArdsClandeboye2,697Down North030619020019560341,462
North Down and ArdsCultra2,894Down North030628020319568341,482
North Down and ArdsDonaghadee2,869Down North0071405824777471,620
North Down and ArdsGroomsport2,836Down North0062505121682411,420
North Down and ArdsHarbour2,984Down North00703012624914551,822
North Down and ArdsHelen's Bay2,770Down North029598019318541331,412
North Down and ArdsKilcooley2,695Down North03368509819781471,663
North Down and ArdsKircubbin2,907Strangford1802511,1540179110491,806
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,267Down North38764180440896671
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,547Strangford469351004481097817
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,548Strangford1602221,020015819281,598
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,558Strangford1682351,076016869791,687
North Down and ArdsRathgael2,444Down North02755908116638391,360
North Down and ArdsRathmore2,869Down North02959408517677411,443
North Down and ArdsSilverbirch2,846Down North0073405924800481,665
North Down and ArdsSilverstream2,513Down North03062309018709431,513
North Down and ArdsWarren2,931Down North0068705523747451,557
 Total72,956 9031,58519,14102,12794415,21393540,848

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Down North.


© 2018 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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