Down West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Down West: Overview

 Projection: LIB seat 

Implied MP at 2015: Unknown (new seat)  (LIB)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,000
Turnout: 54.2%

 Implied 2015 VotesImplied 2015 Share
LIB15,00938.5%
CON9,93225.5%
MIN4,36611.2%
LAB3,1728.1%
NAT3,0397.8%
OTH2,1105.4%
UKIP1,2813.3%
Green810.2%
LIB Majority5,07713.0%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Down West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2015 had the new boundaries for Down West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Down West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Belfast South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Belfast South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Belfast SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BelfastBelvoir2,686Belfast East1274294316567198258361,611
BelfastBlackstaff4,078Belfast South West167491495116258259580822,448
BelfastCentral6,527Belfast South West2657877931864134149291313,918
BelfastCregagh1,340Belfast East124242125541523661803
BelfastFinaghy2,636Belfast South West1244224246466194253361,583
BelfastHillfoot1,612Belfast East149291151651928481968
BelfastMalone2,729Belfast South West1284364386669201262371,637
BelfastMerok0Belfast East000000000
BelfastMusgrave2,943Belfast South West1394704737173216283401,765
BelfastOrmeau3,802Belfast East155458461108241241541762,281
BelfastRavenhill2,810Belfast East260507263113324951321,685
BelfastRosetta3,291Belfast East304594307133385801521,973
BelfastStranmillis4,761Belfast South West194574579135301302678952,858
BelfastUpper Malone2,750Belfast South West1294404426770202264371,651
BelfastWindsor6,286Belfast South West2577587631793973988951263,773
BelfastWoodstock3,546Belfast East327641332144416251722,129
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,170Down West116334360552392283401,303
Lisburn and CastlereaghCairnshill1,834Strangford98282304471977239341,100
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East1,706Strangford91263283431872222311,023
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,012Down West107311334512186262371,209
Lisburn and CastlereaghGalwally1,877Strangford100289312482080244341,127
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken1,870Down West100288310482080243341,123
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda1,645Down West8825427342177021430988
 Total64,911 3,5499,5618,6531,9002,2385,4026,70994438,956

The full details of these calculations are given on the Belfast South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Down South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Down South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Down SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East770Down West1231359910053143437
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha685Down West849415011013316389
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland986Down South15817312613068184560
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonRathfriland3,298Down South52857942343022760121,872
Newry, Mourne and DownAbbey239Newry and Armagh46303049143136
Newry, Mourne and DownAnnalong2,845Down South18850213730804512451,615
Newry, Mourne and DownBallydugan2,527Down South103494201103045765131,436
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward2,623Down South107512209108047567131,491
Newry, Mourne and DownBinnian2,809Down South18649613530404452351,594
Newry, Mourne and DownBurren2,725Down South1017973318052561121,547
Newry, Mourne and DownCastlewellan3,013Down South122587240124054577151,710
Newry, Mourne and DownCathedral2,813Down South639443318044380161,597
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,187Strangford121248174170535110674
Newry, Mourne and DownDamolly557Newry and Armagh10146070115337318
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy409Strangford4285606018173231
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryleckagh3,065Down South1148973920058869131,740
Newry, Mourne and DownDonard2,664Down South17747012828904232241,513
Newry, Mourne and DownDrumaness2,806Down South113547224115050772141,592
Newry, Mourne and DownDundrum2,902Down South118567231119052574151,649
Newry, Mourne and DownHilltown3,360Down South1249824222064676151,907
Newry, Mourne and DownKilkeel2,691Down South17947513029204272241,529
Newry, Mourne and DownKnocknashinna3,141Down South711,0543721049489181,784
Newry, Mourne and DownLecale2,852Down South649573319044981161,619
Newry, Mourne and DownLisnacree3,271Down South21657615735505182751,854
Newry, Mourne and DownMayobridge2,985Down South1118733719057567131,695
Newry, Mourne and DownMurlough2,751Down South18348613329804352341,562
Newry, Mourne and DownQuoile2,564Down South578603017040373141,454
Newry, Mourne and DownRostrevor3,206Down South1209384021061772141,822
Newry, Mourne and DownSt Patrick's749Newry and Armagh13196090154459426
Newry, Mourne and DownStrangford2,639Down South588863117041675151,498
Newry, Mourne and DownTollymore2,755Down South18348713329804362341,564
Newry, Mourne and DownWarrenpoint3,329Down South1249744221063975151,890
 Total75,216 3,96518,0803,4873,045012,1891,62031942,705

The full details of these calculations are given on the Down South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lagan Valley

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lagan Valley, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lagan ValleyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney74Down West102191015341
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,160Down West42779823630372131271,769
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,450Down West3316163849028165981,370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,938Down West39773765580331981181,642
BelfastBelvoir260Belfast East11364270162113146
BelfastDunmurry892Belfast South West1680784802124124499
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallinderry2,522Antrim South198162712500117107641,410
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacash2,193Antrim South132907093100166991,227
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,029Down West170558165001971171,135
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacoss3,012Antrim South18212297443002281351,684
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,140Down West25356487103001871111,197
Lisburn and CastlereaghDerryaghy2,795Antrim South1871196631270732481471,564
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,345Down West196667175002281351,311
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,041Down West171558465001981181,141
Lisburn and CastlereaghHarmony Hill2,167Antrim South14593513980571921141,212
Lisburn and CastlereaghHilden2,589Antrim South1731106131180672291361,446
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,509Down West210671980002441451,404
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,196Down West26059499105001911141,228
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockmore2,688Antrim South16310986939002031211,504
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,135Down West25355486103001861111,194
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan Valley2,394Antrim South1459877535001811081,342
Lisburn and CastlereaghLambeg2,375Antrim South1591025631080622101251,329
Lisburn and CastlereaghLisnagarvey2,181Antrim South132887053100165981,219
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaghaberry2,864Antrim South224184808570133122731,601
Lisburn and CastlereaghMagheralave2,236Antrim South149955301010591981181,250
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,029Down West2405346198001771051,134
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,633Down West31169598127002291361,470
Lisburn and CastlereaghOld Warren2,816Antrim South17011591140002131261,575
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,067Down West173559266002011201,157
Lisburn and CastlereaghStonyford338Antrim South2621957016149188
Lisburn and CastlereaghWallace Park2,798Antrim South1871196641270732481471,565
Lisburn and CastlereaghWhite Mountain3,143Antrim South246202887630146134801,758
Newry, Mourne and DownBallyward130Down South6191880155374
 Total71,139 6,0532,49819,0522,19601,1455,5443,29839,786

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lagan Valley seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Strangford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Strangford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StrangfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff East408Strangford183965130183327213
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken178Down West81728608151294
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoneyreagh1,984Strangford70059668001721421,048
Newry, Mourne and DownBallynahinch3,040Strangford31824756810001121431181,606
Newry, Mourne and DownCrossgar and Killyleagh1,883Strangford197152351620698873992
Newry, Mourne and DownDerryboy2,486Strangford26120146482091117971,313
Newry, Mourne and DownKilmore2,775Strangford2902255189101021301081,464
Newry, Mourne and DownSaintfield2,846Strangford2992305319301041341101,501
North Down and ArdsBallygowan2,940Strangford2590702179002251861,551
North Down and ArdsBallywalter3,118Strangford2072548717407789731,645
North Down and ArdsCarrowdore2,060Strangford1361685764905159491,088
North Down and ArdsComber North2,689Strangford2380642164002061701,420
North Down and ArdsComber South2,549Strangford2250608154001951611,343
North Down and ArdsComber West2,617Strangford2310624160002001651,380
North Down and ArdsConway Square2,967Strangford180066481003512891,565
North Down and ArdsCronstown3,191Strangford195071487003773111,684
North Down and ArdsGlen2,974Strangford181066681003512901,569
North Down and ArdsGregstown2,452Strangford149054967002902391,294
North Down and ArdsKillinchy2,423Strangford2140578147001861531,278
North Down and ArdsKircubbin2,999Strangford1992448387107486711,583
North Down and ArdsLoughries1,407Strangford93114394340354033743
North Down and ArdsMovilla3,052Strangford186068383003612981,611
North Down and ArdsPortaferry2,651Strangford1762167416306576621,399
North Down and ArdsPortavogie2,797Strangford1852287826706980661,477
North Down and ArdsScrabo2,686Strangford163060273003172621,417
North Down and ArdsWest Winds3,114Strangford189069885003683031,643
 Total64,286 4,8672,33515,0532,23408754,6893,86833,921

The full details of these calculations are given on the Strangford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Upper Bann

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Upper Bann, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Upper BannTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,284Upper Bann and Blackwater42628738500824951,936
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,064Upper Bann and Blackwater4108781700338100571,809
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,169Down West5481033940017240231,280
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,881Down West7281365240022953301,700
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,161Down West7991505740025058331,864
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,699Down West9361756720029368392,183
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,050Down West43215162200431103591,798
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,251Upper Bann and Blackwater60321186800600144822,508
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,543Upper Bann and Blackwater47410194400389116662,090
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,705Upper Bann and Blackwater52518375600524126712,185
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,174Upper Bann and Blackwater45015764900448108611,873
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,955Down West581378360076136771,743
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,246Down West8211535900025760341,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,228Upper Bann and Blackwater45916065800456109621,904
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,012Upper Bann and Blackwater403868030033199561,778
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,832Upper Bann and Blackwater36824833200711841,671
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,329Upper Bann and Blackwater43129139000837951,963
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,739Down South440833170013732181,027
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,948Down West38225834500741851,739
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,146Newry and Armagh4208983900346103581,855
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,370Upper Bann and Blackwater43729539500846951,987
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,553Upper Bann and Blackwater46131141600894952,096
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,066Upper Bann and Blackwater528356476001,0221162,399
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,201Upper Bann and Blackwater4279185300352105591,887
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,447Down West677429750089159902,032
 Total80,053 13,1664,24115,4300011,5931,7821,01047,222

The full details of these calculations are given on the Upper Bann seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Down West

The new seat of Down West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Down West
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,319Upper Bann4951763647016640191,267
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East822Down South176621293059147450
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North3,123Upper Bann7281365240022953301,700
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,304Upper Bann7991505740025058331,864
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,616Upper Bann9361756720029368392,183
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,319Upper Bann43215162200431103591,798
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney3,203Upper Bann577388341075138781,741
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney79Lagan Valley141210023243
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDromore3,083Lagan Valley42779823630372131271,769
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,243Upper Bann8211535900025760341,915
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha2,539Lagan Valley32412161447032153811,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGransha717Down South913417413094323387
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin3,365Upper Bann38225834500741851,739
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonQuilly2,974Lagan Valley39773765580331981181,642
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,726Upper Bann677429750089159902,032
Lisburn and CastlereaghBallymacbrennan2,264Lagan Valley170558165001971171,135
Lisburn and CastlereaghBeechill2,408Belfast South116334360552392283401,303
Lisburn and CastlereaghBlaris2,173Lagan Valley25356487103001871111,197
Lisburn and CastlereaghCarryduff West2,331Belfast South107311334512186262371,209
Lisburn and CastlereaghDromara2,409Lagan Valley196667175002281351,311
Lisburn and CastlereaghDrumbo2,186Lagan Valley171558465001981181,141
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillhall2,551Lagan Valley210671980002441451,404
Lisburn and CastlereaghHillsborough2,513Lagan Valley26059499105001911141,228
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken2,283Belfast South99279309491880236421,112
Lisburn and CastlereaghKnockbracken215Strangford92629528224105
Lisburn and CastlereaghLagan2,310Lagan Valley25355486103001861111,194
Lisburn and CastlereaghMaze2,183Lagan Valley2405346198001771051,134
Lisburn and CastlereaghMoira2,502Lagan Valley31169598127002291361,470
Lisburn and CastlereaghNewtownbreda2,010Belfast South8825427342177021430988
Lisburn and CastlereaghRavernet2,230Lagan Valley173559266002011201,157
 Total72,000 9,9323,17215,0091,281813,0394,3662,11038,990

And these are the implied results for 2015 for the new seat of Down West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (08-Feb-2017 17:53)