Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: David Mundell  (CON)
County/Area: Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate: 78,280
Turnout: 71.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,80744.5%
SNP16,57229.7%
LAB12,33822.1%
LIB1,7823.2%
UKIP2590.5%
OTH100.0%
CON Majority8,23514.8%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerCONSNPCON
Economic Position5° Left14° Left
National Position10° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %46%38%52%
British Identity34%27%29%
Good Health46%52%48%
UK Born90%93%88%
Good Education35%36%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC46%55%51%
Average Age48.048.748.5
ABC1 Class47%50%53%

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East ranks #450 for "Leave", #428 for "Right" and #469 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Dumfries and Galloway

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfries and Galloway, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfries and GallowayTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAbbey9,005Galloway and Dumfries2,8001,551165001,7080386,262
Dumfries and GallowayCastle Douglas and Glenkens7,773Galloway and Dumfries2,632645239001,8300585,404
Dumfries and GallowayDee7,277Galloway and Dumfries2,727342347001,5490955,060
Dumfries and GallowayLochar7,166Galloway and Dumfries2,0131,33523001,5880254,984
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale2,679Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries
7665371300538091,863
Dumfries and GallowayMid Galloway7,512Galloway and Dumfries2,302599144002,1180615,224
Dumfries and GallowayNith7,664Galloway and Dumfries1,9791,595100001,6030525,329
Dumfries and GallowayNorth West Dumfries10,973Galloway and Dumfries2,5242,82651002,1880417,630
Dumfries and GallowayStranraer and North Rhins7,395Galloway and Dumfries2,41475693001,7880905,141
Dumfries and GallowayWigtown West6,761Galloway and Dumfries2,18658966001,7900694,700
 Total74,205 22,34310,7751,2410016,700053851,597

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfries and Galloway seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,753Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East4,626980199001,251007,056
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,306Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East4,271862205002,119007,457
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South11,422Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East3,8551,914340002,155008,264
Dumfries and GallowayLochar2,044Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East;
Galloway and Dumfries
633348600493001,480
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,875Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,1871,25625001,507004,975
Dumfries and GallowayNith2,245Galloway and Dumfries6554293300507001,624
Scottish BordersTweeddale East7,322Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk;
Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale
2,584568422001,725005,299
Scottish BordersTweeddale West7,608Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale2,668419560001,858005,505
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,360Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East1,909544152001,998004,603
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,737Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East7897836001,126002,704
 Total67,672 24,1778,1031,9480014,7390048,967

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Lanark and Hamilton East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Lanark and Hamilton EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South LanarkshireAvondale and Stonehouse966Lanarkshire South West258137196021100631
South LanarkshireBothwell and Uddingston9,531Lanarkshire Mid2,2651,921843801,916006,224
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,555Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East991361115220833002,322
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,687Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,9872,1402505202,200007,629
South LanarkshireClydesdale South583Lanarkshire Mid110127412012700380
South LanarkshireClydesdale West15,164Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East2,9353,12846912903,238009,899
South LanarkshireHamilton North and East9,229Lanarkshire Mid1,8291,870703202,223006,024
South LanarkshireHamilton South11,029Lanarkshire Mid2,1992,543963402,328007,200
South LanarkshireHamilton West and Earnock754Lanarkshire West126171126017600491
South LanarkshireLarkhall14,814Lanarkshire Mid2,4783,6869521903,192009,670
 Total77,312 16,17816,0841,214550016,4440050,470

The full details of these calculations are given on the Lanark and Hamilton East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East

The new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale East and Eskdale9,504Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale4,626980199001,251007,056
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale North10,160Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale4,271862205002,119007,457
Dumfries and GallowayAnnandale South10,629Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale3,8551,914340002,155008,264
Dumfries and GallowayLochar1,428Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale38524540030304941
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale127Dumfries and Galloway4125100280095
Dumfries and GallowayMid and Upper Nithsdale6,573Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale2,1251,29027001,471064,919
South LanarkshireClydesdale East6,293Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale1,8605801711401,816004,441
South LanarkshireClydesdale East3,518Lanark and Hamilton East1,04032596801,015002,484
South LanarkshireClydesdale North11,671Lanark and Hamilton East3,0002,1512515202,212007,666
South LanarkshireClydesdale South3,504Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale66983719560963002,544
South LanarkshireClydesdale West14,873Lanark and Hamilton East2,9353,12846912903,238009,899
 Total78,280 24,80712,3371,782259016,57101055,766

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)