Dunbartonshire East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dunbartonshire East: Overview

 Projection: LIB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Jo Swinson  (LIB)
County/Area: Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate: 76,393
Turnout: 76.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LIB19,48133.2%
SNP18,55431.6%
LAB10,91618.6%
CON9,54716.3%
UKIP2040.3%
LIB Majority9271.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Dunbartonshire East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dunbartonshire East constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerLIBSNPCON
Economic Position16° Left14° Left
National Position25° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %29%38%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health43%52%48%
UK Born89%93%88%
Good Education28%36%39%
Good Job39%49%51%
High SEC38%55%51%
Average Age48.248.748.5
ABC1 Class39%50%53%

Dunbartonshire East ranks #575 for "Leave", #555 for "Right" and #547 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dunbartonshire East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dunbartonshire East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dunbartonshire East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DunbartonshireCampsie and Kirkintilloch North7,629Dunbartonshire East1,5011,27139010501,757005,024
East DunbartonshireKirkintilloch East and Twechar9,679Dunbartonshire East1,2452,4383539902,239006,374
East DunbartonshireLenzie and Kirkintilloch South98Dunbartonshire East1819700210065
North LanarkshireAbronhill, Kildrum and The Village11,561Lanarkshire North9322,3141329504,141007,614
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North13,057Lanarkshire North1,9682,64915312303,708008,601
North LanarkshireCumbernauld South15,173Lanarkshire North1,4393,40712112504,901009,993
North LanarkshireKilsyth9,357Lanarkshire North9082,760815802,356006,163
 Total66,554 8,01114,8581,237605019,1230043,834

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dunbartonshire East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dunbartonshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dunbartonshire EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DunbartonshireBearsden North11,259Dunbartonshire East;
Dunbartonshire West
1,5026644,417002,213008,796
East DunbartonshireBearsden South10,743Dunbartonshire East1,5411,0723,518002,264008,395
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs North and Torrance11,106Dunbartonshire East1,3791,2893,316002,693008,677
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs South9,944Dunbartonshire East5491,7822,616002,823007,770
East DunbartonshireCampsie and Kirkintilloch North1,633Dunbartonshire East7120557000429001,275
East DunbartonshireKirkintilloch East and Twechar137Dunbartonshire East42739003700107
East DunbartonshireLenzie and Kirkintilloch South10,834Dunbartonshire East1,2851,4542,910002,815008,464
East DunbartonshireMilngavie10,645Dunbartonshire East1,2311,0393,636002,411008,317
 Total66,301 7,5627,53221,0220015,6850051,801

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dunbartonshire East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dunbartonshire East

The new seat of Dunbartonshire East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dunbartonshire East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DunbartonshireBearsden North5,322Dunbartonshire East7233202,126001,065004,234
East DunbartonshireBearsden South10,613Dunbartonshire East1,5411,0723,518002,264008,395
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs North and Torrance10,894Dunbartonshire East1,3791,2893,316002,693008,677
East DunbartonshireBishopbriggs South9,597Dunbartonshire East5491,7822,616002,823007,770
East DunbartonshireCampsie and Kirkintilloch North7,416Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East1,2951,2167918601,800005,188
East DunbartonshireCampsie and Kirkintilloch North1,588Dunbartonshire East277260169190386001,111
East DunbartonshireKirkintilloch East and Twechar9,172Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East1,2322,4313879802,244006,392
East DunbartonshireKirkintilloch East and Twechar130Dunbartonshire East1734510320089
East DunbartonshireLenzie and Kirkintilloch South102Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East12132600250076
East DunbartonshireLenzie and Kirkintilloch South11,278Dunbartonshire East1,2911,4602,891002,811008,453
East DunbartonshireMilngavie10,281Dunbartonshire East1,2311,0393,636002,411008,317
 Total76,393 9,54710,91619,481204018,5540058,702

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dunbartonshire East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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