Durham North and Chester-le-Street: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Durham North and Chester-le-Street: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Kevan Jones  (LAB)
County/Area: Durham (North East)
Electorate: 74,985
Turnout: 67.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB29,08857.8%
CON15,51130.8%
LIB2,9205.8%
UKIP2,6955.4%
OTH900.2%
Green540.1%
LAB Majority13,57727.0%

See overview of other seats in North East.

Durham North and Chester-le-Street : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Durham North and Chester-le-Street constituency, the 'North East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth EastAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position12° Left8° Left
National Position1° Nat4° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%58%52%
British Identity27%26%29%
Good Health43%44%48%
UK Born95%95%88%
Good Education37%35%39%
Good Job48%46%51%
High SEC51%44%51%
Average Age52.449.048.5
ABC1 Class50%47%53%

Durham North and Chester-le-Street ranks #259 for "Leave", #518 for "Right" and #334 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Durham North and Chester-le-Street: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Durham North and Chester-le-Street been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Durham North and Chester-le-Street

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Durham North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamAnnfield Plain5,984Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,1752,31012825500003,868
DurhamChester-le-Street East2,909Durham North and Chester-le-Street84780311211800001,880
DurhamChester-le-Street North3,126Durham North and Chester-le-Street5481,3027110000002,021
DurhamChester-le-Street South5,905Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,4421,92624920000003,817
DurhamChester-le-Street West Central5,939Durham North and Chester-le-Street8202,61912827100003,838
DurhamCraghead and South Moor5,987Durham North and Chester-le-Street7622,72411826600003,870
DurhamLumley5,814Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,6711,8331916300003,758
DurhamNorth Lodge2,673Durham North and Chester-le-Street8705612633300001,727
DurhamPelton9,813Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,6064,22917033800006,343
DurhamSacriston5,520Durham North and Chester-le-Street9032,23618824000003,567
DurhamStanley6,595Durham North and Chester-le-Street8443,00312029700004,264
DurhamTanfield6,706Durham North and Chester-le-Street1,4932,37124322700004,334
 Total66,971 12,98125,9171,9812,408000043,287

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Durham, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Durham, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Durham, City ofTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamBelmont10,250Durham, City of, and Easington2,1923,7707218193001056,962
DurhamBrandon7,210Durham North West9203,64425057500234,899
DurhamCoxhoe8,942Billingham and Sedgefield1,3384,363228112600286,075
DurhamDeerness8,338Durham North West1,3313,8093011146001045,665
DurhamDurham South2,737Durham, City of, and Easington7326803717630061,859
DurhamElvet and Gilesgate6,708Durham, City of, and Easington1,6071,91064313324100234,557
DurhamEsh and Witton Gilbert1,931Durham North West34269511515220061,312
DurhamFramwellgate and Newton Hall10,407Durham North and Chester-le-Street2,5303,1719392875400907,071
DurhamNeville's Cross7,428Durham, City of, and Easington2,0781,7828351632200135,046
DurhamSherburn6,384Durham, City of, and Easington1,2532,553374111600394,336
DurhamTrimdon and Thornley490Durham, City of, and Easington242615410001332
DurhamWillington and Hunwick307Bishop Auckland60134560004209
 Total71,132 14,40726,7724,7871,1177980044248,323

The full details of these calculations are given on the Durham, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Durham North and Chester-le-Street

The new seat of Durham North and Chester-le-Street is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Durham North and Chester-le-Street
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
DurhamAnnfield Plain5,670Durham North1,1752,31012825500003,868
DurhamChester-le-Street East2,919Durham North84780311211800001,880
DurhamChester-le-Street North2,999Durham North5481,3027110000002,021
DurhamChester-le-Street South5,937Durham North1,4421,92624920000003,817
DurhamChester-le-Street West Central5,825Durham North8202,61912827100003,838
DurhamCraghead and South Moor5,177Durham North7622,72411826600003,870
DurhamFramwellgate and Newton Hall10,175Durham, City of2,5303,1719392875400907,071
DurhamLumley5,527Durham North1,6711,8331916300003,758
DurhamNorth Lodge2,828Durham North8705612633300001,727
DurhamPelton9,889Durham North1,6064,22917033800006,343
DurhamSacriston5,357Durham North9032,23618824000003,567
DurhamStanley6,187Durham North8443,00312029700004,264
DurhamTanfield6,495Durham North1,4932,37124322700004,334
 Total74,985 15,51129,0882,9202,69554009050,358

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Durham North and Chester-le-Street.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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