Dursley, Thornbury and Yate: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dursley, Thornbury and Yate: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Luke Hall  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 73,901
Turnout: 78.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,59353.1%
LIB14,80025.7%
LAB11,10519.3%
Green8661.5%
UKIP2740.5%
OTH240.0%
CON Majority15,79327.4%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Dursley, Thornbury and Yate : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Dursley, Thornbury and Yate constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Left1° Right
National Position3° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %50%53%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health42%47%48%
UK Born86%92%88%
Good Education25%40%39%
Good Job39%50%51%
High SEC32%52%51%
Average Age46.550.548.5
ABC1 Class36%54%53%

Dursley, Thornbury and Yate ranks #380 for "Leave", #350 for "Right" and #419 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Dursley, Thornbury and Yate: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dursley, Thornbury and Yate been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Dursley, Thornbury and Yate

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Cotswolds, The

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cotswolds, The, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cotswolds, TheTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CotswoldAbbey2,266Cotswolds, The8672864266950021,682
CotswoldBlockley2,196Cotswolds, The1,08623426713300001,630
CotswoldBourton Vale2,284Cotswolds, The1,2721712382120011,696
CotswoldBourton Village2,090Cotswolds, The9372713102460031,551
CotswoldCampden and Vale4,429Cotswolds, The2,351351400150320013,285
CotswoldChedworth and Churn Valley2,215Cotswolds, The1,06620831210440051,645
CotswoldChesterton2,147Cotswolds, The73334933188910011,593
CotswoldColn Valley2,106Cotswolds, The1,09417816611200031,562
CotswoldErmin2,137Cotswolds, The1,0322782293980001,586
CotswoldFairford North1,827Cotswolds, The81222120311090011,356
CotswoldFosseridge2,211Cotswolds, The1,12621118411160031,641
CotswoldFour Acres1,595Cotswolds, The5772432794800011,184
CotswoldGrumbolds Ash with Avening2,154Cotswolds, The1,1512012021410021,598
CotswoldKemble2,139Cotswolds, The1,08519923159140001,588
CotswoldLechlade, Kempsford and Fairford South4,221Cotswolds, The2,074522352159260003,133
CotswoldMoreton East1,585Cotswolds, The79220515212150001,176
CotswoldMoreton West1,910Cotswolds, The1,00417719522190001,417
CotswoldNew Mills1,497Cotswolds, The5362492843280011,110
CotswoldNorthleach2,304Cotswolds, The1,1092932697290031,710
CotswoldSandywell2,125Cotswolds, The1,1141962361300001,577
CotswoldSiddington and Cerney Rural2,264Cotswolds, The1,03525532640220021,680
CotswoldSouth Cerney Village1,954Cotswolds, The705380327101300151,450
CotswoldSt Michael's2,002Cotswolds, The71333331837810041,486
CotswoldStow2,160Cotswolds, The1,06719629521220021,603
CotswoldStratton2,161Cotswolds, The878242371121010001,604
CotswoldTetbury East and Rural1,781Cotswolds, The8672531811190021,323
CotswoldTetbury Town1,780Cotswolds, The701424144251100161,321
CotswoldTetbury with Upton1,809Cotswolds, The83929916523150031,344
CotswoldThe Ampneys and Hampton2,334Cotswolds, The1,1542812752200001,732
CotswoldThe Beeches1,926Cotswolds, The71233029371200031,429
CotswoldThe Rissingtons1,496Cotswolds, The76810612521090011,111
CotswoldWatermoor2,459Cotswolds, The861422381138170051,824
StroudKingswood1,819Dursley, Thornbury and Yate6483713118120001,350
StroudMinchinhampton3,675Stroud1,647601251291960022,726
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,389Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,7861,1637194026600243,998
 Total80,447 36,19910,6999,7481,2001,7490010659,701

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cotswolds, The seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stroud

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stroud, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: StroudTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
StroudAmberley and Woodchester1,734Stroud830436310380001,335
StroudBerkeley3,478Stroud1,2571,3083751260002,679
StroudBisley1,695Stroud7344514539370001,306
StroudCainscross6,055Stroud1,8372,6236658800004,664
StroudCam East3,427Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,4601,0756122210002,639
StroudCam West3,337Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,1141,25829155140002,570
StroudCentral1,815Stroud5107713612690001,398
StroudChalford5,463Stroud2,1591,7171011151180004,210
StroudCoaley and Uley1,906Stroud732648451420001,468
StroudDursley5,567Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,7722,03842236190004,287
StroudEastington and Standish1,484Stroud5805161222120001,142
StroudFarmhill and Paganhill1,820Stroud5727034368170001,403
StroudHardwicke3,990Stroud1,7051,2712336380003,073
StroudNailsworth5,490Stroud1,9372,01715611160004,227
StroudPainswick3,486Stroud1,5109536297630002,685
StroudRandwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe1,431Stroud362632501570001,102
StroudRodborough3,787Stroud1,1111,3703307990002,917
StroudSevern3,972Stroud1,8031,1582633400003,060
StroudSlade1,661Stroud3807773623620001,278
StroudStonehouse6,398Stroud1,8402,87310956510004,929
StroudThe Stanleys3,280Stroud1,1161,20139131390002,526
StroudThrupp1,945Stroud6347125331670001,497
StroudTrinity1,859Stroud410842810990001,432
StroudUplands1,829Stroud5207903914460001,409
StroudUpton St Leonards2,383Stroud1,1536182713250001,836
StroudVale1,551Dursley, Thornbury and Yate820340813120001,193
StroudValley2,007Stroud4438988841140001,547
 Total82,850 29,30129,9962,0551,0391,42100063,812

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stroud seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Thornbury and Yate

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Thornbury and Yate, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Thornbury and YateTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South GloucestershireBoyd Valley6,118Kingswood2,6865761,2530510004,566
South GloucestershireCharfield3,820Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,6691221,0370230002,851
South GloucestershireChipping Sodbury5,614Dursley, Thornbury and Yate2,3684241,3480490004,189
South GloucestershireCotswold Edge2,745Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,2081276740400002,049
South GloucestershireDodington6,593Dursley, Thornbury and Yate2,3329111,6210570004,921
South GloucestershireFrampton Cotterell6,031Filton and Bradley Stoke2,3296771,4340610004,501
South GloucestershireLadden Brook3,178Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,4602246600270002,371
South GloucestershireSevern2,978Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,6161084610370002,222
South GloucestershireThornbury North6,211Dursley, Thornbury and Yate2,5805671,4090780004,634
South GloucestershireThornbury South and Alveston6,071Dursley, Thornbury and Yate2,3345711,5640610004,530
South GloucestershireWesterleigh3,045Dursley, Thornbury and Yate1,3561957060160002,273
South GloucestershireYate Central6,155Dursley, Thornbury and Yate2,3307001,5080550004,593
South GloucestershireYate North9,370Dursley, Thornbury and Yate3,7409112,2620790006,992
 Total67,929 28,0086,11315,937063400050,692

The full details of these calculations are given on the Thornbury and Yate seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dursley, Thornbury and Yate

The new seat of Dursley, Thornbury and Yate is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Dursley, Thornbury and Yate
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South GloucestershireCharfield3,145Thornbury and Yate1,6691221,0370230002,851
South GloucestershireChipping Sodbury5,454Thornbury and Yate2,3684241,3480490004,189
South GloucestershireCotswold Edge2,725Thornbury and Yate1,2081276740400002,049
South GloucestershireDodington5,778Thornbury and Yate2,3329111,6210570004,921
South GloucestershireLadden Brook3,101Thornbury and Yate1,4602246600270002,371
South GloucestershireSevern3,010Thornbury and Yate1,6161084610370002,222
South GloucestershireThornbury North6,178Thornbury and Yate2,5805671,4090780004,634
South GloucestershireThornbury South and Alveston5,982Thornbury and Yate2,3345711,5640610004,530
South GloucestershireWesterleigh3,164Thornbury and Yate1,3561957060160002,273
South GloucestershireYate Central6,406Thornbury and Yate2,3307001,5080550004,593
South GloucestershireYate North8,771Thornbury and Yate3,7409112,2620790006,992
StroudCam East3,465Stroud1,4601,0756122210002,639
StroudCam West3,261Stroud1,1141,25829155140002,570
StroudDursley5,128Stroud1,7722,03842236190004,287
StroudKingswood1,662Cotswolds, The6483713118120001,350
StroudVale1,562Stroud820340813120001,193
StroudWotton-under-Edge5,109Cotswolds, The1,7861,1637194026600243,998
 Total73,901 30,59311,10514,800274866002457,662

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dursley, Thornbury and Yate.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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