East Ham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

East Ham: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Stephen Timms  (LAB)
County/Area: Newham (London)
Electorate: 78,146
Turnout: 67.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB44,17383.8%
CON6,61412.6%
LIB7611.4%
OTH3960.8%
UKIP3710.7%
Green3700.7%
LAB Majority37,55971.3%

See overview of other seats in London.

East Ham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new East Ham constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left11° Right
National Position31° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %48%40%52%
British Identity42%38%29%
Good Health54%50%48%
UK Born68%64%88%
Good Education60%48%39%
Good Job71%61%51%
High SEC62%55%51%
Average Age42.744.148.5
ABC1 Class69%62%53%

East Ham ranks #418 for "Leave", #431 for "Right" and #571 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

East Ham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for East Ham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of East Ham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: East Ham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of East Ham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: East HamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamBeckton8,507Barking and Beckton9514,546131286900405,747
NewhamBoleyn8,916East Ham6885,12649396300586,023
NewhamEast Ham Central8,679East Ham7504,903105312900455,863
NewhamEast Ham North7,712East Ham5924,47167183200305,210
NewhamEast Ham South8,745East Ham6425,00350966000575,908
NewhamGreen Street East8,822East Ham7715,00313934600355,961
NewhamLittle Ilford9,303East Ham6165,49058393100526,286
NewhamManor Park8,682East Ham7804,9447306200425,865
NewhamRoyal Docks5,976Barking and Beckton7952,94252035400384,037
NewhamWall End8,486East Ham6544,695289202900465,733
 Total83,828 7,23947,1236566974750044356,633

The full details of these calculations are given on the East Ham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: West Ham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of West Ham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: West HamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamCanning Town North8,603Poplar and Canning Town7824,4371312244200465,662
NewhamCanning Town South9,292Poplar and Canning Town1,0764,5401472713800446,116
NewhamCustom House7,794Poplar and Canning Town7693,9491172263300365,130
NewhamForest Gate North9,463Leyton and Stratford7104,8301761746200316,226
NewhamForest Gate South10,179Leyton and Stratford1,2944,9192804211400496,698
NewhamGreen Street West8,866East Ham1,1214,53812351800315,836
NewhamPlaistow North9,030Poplar and Canning Town9634,687193303800325,943
NewhamPlaistow South9,597Poplar and Canning Town1,0804,8082011593700326,317
NewhamStratford and New Town10,317Leyton and Stratford1,1525,1762873810600316,790
NewhamWest Ham9,103Leyton and Stratford8904,7081811226900225,992
 Total92,244 9,83746,5921,8361,1349570035460,710

The full details of these calculations are given on the West Ham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: East Ham

The new seat of East Ham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: East Ham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
NewhamBoleyn8,696East Ham6885,12649396300586,023
NewhamEast Ham Central8,867East Ham7504,903105312900455,863
NewhamEast Ham North8,682East Ham5924,47167183200305,210
NewhamEast Ham South8,347East Ham6425,00350966000575,908
NewhamGreen Street East8,875East Ham7715,00313934600355,961
NewhamGreen Street West8,752West Ham1,1214,53812351800315,836
NewhamLittle Ilford8,873East Ham6165,49058393100526,286
NewhamManor Park8,636East Ham7804,9447306200425,865
NewhamWall End8,418East Ham6544,695289202900465,733
 Total78,146 6,61444,1737613713700039652,685

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of East Ham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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