Edinburgh Southside: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Edinburgh Southside: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ian Murray  (LAB)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 76,583
Turnout: 78.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB23,03738.5%
CON18,46930.9%
SNP15,32925.6%
LIB3,0085.0%
LAB Majority4,5687.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Edinburgh Southside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Edinburgh Southside constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerLABSNPCON
Economic Position8° Left14° Left
National Position26° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %19%38%52%
British Identity28%27%29%
Good Health48%52%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education41%36%39%
Good Job53%49%51%
High SEC56%55%51%
Average Age51.148.748.5
ABC1 Class57%50%53%

Edinburgh Southside ranks #599 for "Leave", #467 for "Right" and #555 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Edinburgh Southside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Edinburgh Southside been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Edinburgh Southside

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Edinburgh East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghCity Centre7,363Edinburgh East1,3791,321242001,921004,863
EdinburghCraigentinny / Duddingston17,693Edinburgh East1,9674,026431005,2620011,686
EdinburghLeith4,919Edinburgh North and Leith473965137001,673003,248
EdinburghLeith Walk4,034Edinburgh North and Leith45593559001,216002,665
EdinburghLiberton / Gilmerton166Edinburgh East16434004600109
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside2,457Edinburgh Southside52441413800545001,621
EdinburghPortobello / Craigmillar17,575Edinburgh East1,4255,159178004,8470011,609
EdinburghSouthside / Newington11,690Edinburgh Southside1,8422,221660002,999007,722
 Total65,897 8,08115,0841,8490018,5090043,523

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead5,699Edinburgh Southside1,6521,7398300750004,224
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart2,102Edinburgh Southside3228421800375001,557
EdinburghLiberton / Gilmerton24,843Edinburgh East2,22010,393266005,5320018,411
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside19,714Edinburgh Southside3,7397,820639002,4110014,609
EdinburghPortobello / Craigmillar1 000000000
EdinburghSouthside / Newington12,194Edinburgh Southside1,4945,475381001,687009,037
 Total64,553 9,42726,2691,3870010,7550047,838

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghCity Centre1,046Edinburgh East263164450025400726
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead11,982Edinburgh Southside4,1841,602451002,077008,314
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield661Edinburgh West16397610013800459
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle353Edinburgh West696225008800244
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart15,197Edinburgh Southside3,8122,467410003,8570010,546
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside3,188Edinburgh Southside90045722800628002,213
EdinburghPentland Hills15,665Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston4,1782,563552003,5750010,868
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie23,086Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston;
Edinburgh West
2,9095,801352006,9580016,020
 Total71,178 16,47813,2132,1240017,5750049,390

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Edinburgh Southside

The new seat of Edinburgh Southside is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Edinburgh Southside
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead5,991Edinburgh South1,8811,07717200911004,041
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead12,597Edinburgh South West3,9552,264362001,916008,497
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart2,040Edinburgh South5024025200514001,470
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart14,746Edinburgh South West3,6322,907376003,7180010,633
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside2,148Edinburgh East5008429700347001,786
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside17,231Edinburgh South4,0146,756781002,7860014,337
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside2,786Edinburgh South West6491,09212600450002,317
EdinburghSouthside / Newington9,321Edinburgh East1,6333,767510002,294008,204
EdinburghSouthside / Newington9,723Edinburgh South1,7033,929531002,392008,555
 Total76,583 18,46923,0363,0070015,3280059,840

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Edinburgh Southside.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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