Edinburgh West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Edinburgh West: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (SNP)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 77,738
Turnout: 75.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
SNP17,82830.3%
LIB16,12427.4%
CON13,78623.4%
LAB10,87718.5%
Green1890.3%
OTH1090.2%
SNP Majority1,7042.9%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Edinburgh West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Edinburgh West constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerSNPSNPCON
Economic Position12° Left14° Left
National Position24° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %29%38%52%
British Identity38%27%29%
Good Health52%52%48%
UK Born52%93%88%
Good Education55%36%39%
Good Job66%49%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age42.648.748.5
ABC1 Class66%50%53%

Edinburgh West ranks #576 for "Leave", #509 for "Right" and #545 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Edinburgh West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Edinburgh West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Edinburgh West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Edinburgh North and Leith

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh North and Leith, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh North and LeithTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghCity Centre7,950Edinburgh East1,8651,43235302451,761005,656
EdinburghForth20,987Edinburgh North and Leith3,6795,38552602025,1410014,933
EdinburghInverleith17,934Edinburgh North and Leith;
Edinburgh West
4,8973,46579303963,2100012,761
EdinburghLeith13,166Edinburgh North and Leith1,8502,66950303274,018009,367
EdinburghLeith Walk19,436Edinburgh North and Leith3,0924,66740405555,1110013,829
 Total79,473 15,38317,6182,57901,72519,2410056,546

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh North and Leith seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh South West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh South WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghCity Centre1,046Edinburgh East263164450025400726
EdinburghColinton / Fairmilehead11,982Edinburgh Southside4,1841,602451002,077008,314
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield661Edinburgh West16397610013800459
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle353Edinburgh West696225008800244
EdinburghFountainbridge / Craiglockhart15,197Edinburgh Southside3,8122,467410003,8570010,546
EdinburghMeadows / Morningside3,188Edinburgh Southside90045722800628002,213
EdinburghPentland Hills15,665Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston4,1782,563552003,5750010,868
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie23,086Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston;
Edinburgh West
2,9095,801352006,9580016,020
 Total71,178 16,47813,2132,1240017,5750049,390

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Edinburgh West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Edinburgh West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Edinburgh WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghAlmond19,893Edinburgh West3,6571,4415,031004,53002914,688
EdinburghCity Centre1,352Edinburgh East2271423460027805998
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield17,548Edinburgh West3,2251,7704,777003,1770912,958
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle17,429Edinburgh West2,1512,2164,597003,83706712,868
EdinburghForth4,087Edinburgh North and Leith52071183200948083,019
EdinburghInverleith5,704Edinburgh West1,2066591,42400918034,210
EdinburghPentland Hills1,482Edinburgh Pentland and Livingston30516731500303041,094
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie4,005Edinburgh West267771784001,129062,957
 Total71,500 11,5587,87718,1060015,120013152,792

The full details of these calculations are given on the Edinburgh West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Edinburgh West

The new seat of Edinburgh West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Edinburgh West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EdinburghAlmond20,061Edinburgh West3,6571,4415,031004,53002914,688
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield631Edinburgh South West123681760012000487
EdinburghCorstorphine / Murrayfield16,742Edinburgh West3,2651,7994,662003,1950912,930
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle349Edinburgh South West444592007801260
EdinburghDrum Brae / Gyle17,211Edinburgh West2,1762,2334,530003,84706612,852
EdinburghInverleith5,621Edinburgh West1,473995535096996014,096
EdinburghInverleith5,510Edinburgh North and Leith1,444975524094976014,014
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie3,398Edinburgh West470972168001,196012,807
EdinburghSighthill / Gorgie8,215Edinburgh South West1,1352,349406002,890026,782
 Total77,738 13,78710,87716,124019017,828011058,916

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Edinburgh West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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