Ellesmere Port and Neston: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Justin Madders  (LAB)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 73,599
Turnout: 76.0%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB33,72460.3%
CON19,65335.1%
LIB1,3982.5%
UKIP7881.4%
Green4020.7%
LAB Majority14,07125.1%

See overview of other seats in North West.

Ellesmere Port and Neston : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Ellesmere Port and Neston constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position8° Left6° Left
National Position1° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%54%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health41%46%48%
UK Born98%92%88%
Good Education28%37%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC39%48%51%
Average Age49.348.648.5
ABC1 Class40%50%53%

Ellesmere Port and Neston ranks #314 for "Leave", #468 for "Right" and #340 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Ellesmere Port and Neston: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ellesmere Port and Neston been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Ellesmere Port and Neston

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Chester, City of

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chester, City of, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chester, City ofTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterBlacon10,700Chester, City of2,1656,09131000008,287
Cheshire West and ChesterBoughton4,303Chester, City of1,1932,11919000003,331
Cheshire West and ChesterChester City2,916Chester, City of8591,36336000002,258
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages3,226Chester, City of1,4431,00947000002,499
Cheshire West and ChesterDodleston and Huntington3,077Chester, City of1,30299784000002,383
Cheshire West and ChesterFarndon206Eddisbury91571200000160
Cheshire West and ChesterGarden Quarter4,338Chester, City of1,0512,194114000003,359
Cheshire West and ChesterGreat Boughton7,028Chester, City of2,7292,594119000005,442
Cheshire West and ChesterHandbridge Park6,957Chester, City of2,7542,430203000005,387
Cheshire West and ChesterHoole7,214Chester, City of1,8243,482281000005,587
Cheshire West and ChesterLache4,529Chester, City of1,1452,32141000003,507
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton370Ellesmere Port and Neston1291451200000286
Cheshire West and ChesterNewton7,487Chester, City of2,2203,324253000005,797
Cheshire West and ChesterSaughall and Mollington3,498Chester, City of1,4521,23522000002,709
Cheshire West and ChesterUpton7,011Chester, City of2,4892,660279000005,428
 Total72,860 22,84632,0211,5530000056,420

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chester, City of seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ellesmere Port and NestonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterChester Villages1,852Chester, City of8054963911230001,374
Cheshire West and ChesterEllesmere Port Town7,192Ellesmere Port and Neston1,0824,00633155590005,335
Cheshire West and ChesterElton3,577Weaver Vale1,2091,40922490002,653
Cheshire West and ChesterGrange3,759Ellesmere Port and Neston5102,194951240002,788
Cheshire West and ChesterLedsham and Manor6,226Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1642,310855820004,619
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton6,366Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1682,20527054260004,723
Cheshire West and ChesterNeston3,369Ellesmere Port and Neston9261,4378324290002,499
Cheshire West and ChesterNetherpool2,680Ellesmere Port and Neston4311,469334780001,988
Cheshire West and ChesterParkgate2,838Ellesmere Port and Neston1,121886691290002,106
Cheshire West and ChesterRossmore3,110Ellesmere Port and Neston6291,614117470002,308
Cheshire West and ChesterSt Paul's7,004Ellesmere Port and Neston1,4843,49510781290005,196
Cheshire West and ChesterStrawberry4,134Ellesmere Port and Neston1,3361,637138010003,067
Cheshire West and ChesterSutton7,103Ellesmere Port and Neston1,5793,46579121250005,269
Cheshire West and ChesterWhitby6,443Ellesmere Port and Neston1,8612,7445198260004,780
Cheshire West and ChesterWillaston and Thornton3,013Ellesmere Port and Neston1,44177119130002,235
 Total68,666 18,74630,13889382334000050,940

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ellesmere Port and Neston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Wirral South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Wirral South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Wirral SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WirralBebington12,476Bebington and Heswall3,0826,4911280770009,778
WirralBromborough11,803Birkenhead2,3756,61310901530009,250
WirralClatterbridge11,545Bebington and Heswall4,1994,5742120620009,047
WirralEastham11,186Ellesmere Port and Neston2,7925,3465340940008,766
WirralHeswall10,660Bebington and Heswall5,0992,8473390690008,354
 Total57,670 17,54725,8711,322045500045,195

The full details of these calculations are given on the Wirral South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston

The new seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Ellesmere Port and Neston
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterEllesmere Port Town6,384Ellesmere Port and Neston1,0824,00633155590005,335
Cheshire West and ChesterGrange3,321Ellesmere Port and Neston5102,194951240002,788
Cheshire West and ChesterLedsham and Manor6,385Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1642,310855820004,619
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton386Chester, City of1261291631000275
Cheshire West and ChesterLittle Neston and Burton6,636Ellesmere Port and Neston2,1712,22126651250004,734
Cheshire West and ChesterNeston3,176Ellesmere Port and Neston9261,4378324290002,499
Cheshire West and ChesterNetherpool2,741Ellesmere Port and Neston4311,469334780001,988
Cheshire West and ChesterParkgate3,128Ellesmere Port and Neston1,121886691290002,106
Cheshire West and ChesterRossmore2,914Ellesmere Port and Neston6291,614117470002,308
Cheshire West and ChesterSt Paul's6,669Ellesmere Port and Neston1,4843,49510781290005,196
Cheshire West and ChesterStrawberry4,192Ellesmere Port and Neston1,3361,637138010003,067
Cheshire West and ChesterSutton7,022Ellesmere Port and Neston1,5793,46579121250005,269
Cheshire West and ChesterWhitby6,503Ellesmere Port and Neston1,8612,7445198260004,780
Cheshire West and ChesterWillaston and Thornton3,270Ellesmere Port and Neston1,44177119130002,235
WirralEastham10,872Wirral South2,7925,3465340940008,766
 Total73,599 19,65333,7241,39878840200055,965

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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