Epping Forest: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Epping Forest: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Eleanor Laing  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 73,521
Turnout: 69.1%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON31,46162.0%
LAB13,21926.0%
LIB2,8855.7%
UKIP1,8703.7%
Green1,2352.4%
OTH1080.2%
CON Majority18,24235.9%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Epping Forest : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Epping Forest constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position15° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %62%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born89%89%88%
Good Education37%37%39%
Good Job49%53%51%
High SEC52%53%51%
Average Age52.049.448.5
ABC1 Class52%55%53%

Epping Forest ranks #102 for "Leave", #49 for "Right" and #36 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Epping Forest: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Epping Forest been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Epping Forest

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Epping Forest

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Epping Forest, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Epping ForestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,591Epping Forest7991482683240021,082
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,629Epping Forest1,345646155173020032,468
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,313Epping Forest2,48773925371220023,610
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,724Epping Forest8562333610360001,171
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,259Epping Forest1,64737940110380012,215
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,874Epping Forest1,9027194271531040053,310
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common4,872Epping Forest2,129813223331060073,311
Epping ForestGrange Hill5,209Epping Forest2,1701,044121175290003,539
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,554Epping Forest1,1801,0259454530092,415
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,293Epping Forest90096278274180052,237
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,458Epping Forest1,0698991072372700102,349
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,431Epping Forest1,5546617952100102,330
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,700Epping Forest1,3031,00388604900112,514
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,385Epping Forest1,3528187393400132,299
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,642Epping Forest1,4648757829190092,474
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,190Epping Forest1,61424023838370002,167
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach1,738Epping Forest910208302350041,180
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,925Epping Forest2,339528311119440063,347
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,168Epping Forest1,47733623087190032,152
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,464Epping Forest1,71342183101330032,354
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,318Epping Forest1,2515221152461150052,254
 Total74,737 31,46113,2192,8851,8701,2350010850,778

The full details of these calculations are given on the Epping Forest seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Epping Forest

The new seat of Epping Forest is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Epping Forest
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Epping ForestBroadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing1,693Epping Forest7991482683240021,082
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill East3,433Epping Forest1,345646155173020032,468
Epping ForestBuckhurst Hill West5,234Epping Forest2,48773925371220023,610
Epping ForestChigwell Row1,835Epping Forest8562333610360001,171
Epping ForestChigwell Village3,304Epping Forest1,64737940110380012,215
Epping ForestEpping Hemnall4,858Epping Forest1,9027194271531040053,310
Epping ForestEpping Lindsey and Thornwood Common5,239Epping Forest2,129813223331060073,311
Epping ForestGrange Hill4,898Epping Forest2,1701,044121175290003,539
Epping ForestLoughton Alderton3,258Epping Forest1,1801,0259454530092,415
Epping ForestLoughton Broadway3,173Epping Forest90096278274180052,237
Epping ForestLoughton Fairmead3,166Epping Forest1,0698991072372700102,349
Epping ForestLoughton Forest3,349Epping Forest1,5546617952100102,330
Epping ForestLoughton Roding3,523Epping Forest1,3031,00388604900112,514
Epping ForestLoughton St John's3,392Epping Forest1,3528187393400132,299
Epping ForestLoughton St Mary's3,703Epping Forest1,4648757829190092,474
Epping ForestTheydon Bois3,296Epping Forest1,61424023838370002,167
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey High Beach1,987Epping Forest910208302350041,180
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Honey Lane4,508Epping Forest2,339528311119440063,347
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey North East3,254Epping Forest1,47733623087190032,152
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey Paternoster3,362Epping Forest1,71342183101330032,354
Epping ForestWaltham Abbey South West3,056Epping Forest1,2515221152461150052,254
 Total73,521 31,46113,2192,8851,8701,2350010850,778

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Epping Forest.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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