Essex North East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Essex North East: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Bernard Jenkin  (CON)
County/Area: Essex (Anglia)
Electorate: 77,481
Turnout: 72.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,72963.5%
LAB13,80624.5%
LIB3,8716.9%
Green1,4562.6%
UKIP1,1042.0%
OTH2040.4%
MIN680.1%
CON Majority21,92339.0%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Essex North East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Essex North East constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position11° Right8° Right
National Position12° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health55%47%48%
UK Born91%89%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job48%53%51%
High SEC55%53%51%
Average Age46.749.448.5
ABC1 Class50%55%53%

Essex North East ranks #217 for "Leave", #76 for "Right" and #80 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Essex North East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Essex North East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Essex North East

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Clacton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clacton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ClactonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,863Harwich and Clacton1,1879266919354017172,463
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,854Harwich and Clacton890208436270971,181
TendringBockings Elm3,756Harwich and Clacton1,408680412261905172,396
TendringBurrsville1,618Harwich and Clacton6062631398450241,031
TendringFrinton3,247Harwich and Clacton1,591290446228036202,071
TendringGolf Green3,895Harwich and Clacton1,202898263113302112,483
TendringHamford3,113Harwich and Clacton1,3613863311734025281,984
TendringHaven1,656Harwich and Clacton687204166712032371,055
TendringHolland and Kirby3,852Harwich and Clacton1,7114652714628039382,454
TendringHomelands1,542Harwich and Clacton6561452512715086982
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,717Essex North East1,6114262719747025362,369
TendringPeter Bruff3,533Harwich and Clacton1,3305741271831909102,252
TendringPier3,943Harwich and Clacton1,4028284317039014162,512
TendringRush Green3,913Harwich and Clacton1,2899112921725013102,494
TendringSt Bartholomews3,571Harwich and Clacton1,4884355512339062742,276
TendringSt James3,407Harwich and Clacton1,4075153715817022152,171
TendringSt Johns3,747Harwich and Clacton1,3856622719397010142,388
TendringSt Marys4,150Harwich and Clacton1,4288317725721018122,644
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,489Essex North East1,3605714411040043562,224
TendringSt Pauls3,851Harwich and Clacton1,6914364716832038412,453
TendringWalton3,547Harwich and Clacton1,3425507719747018292,260
 Total69,264 27,03211,2048883,356718044749844,143

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clacton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Harwich and North Essex

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Harwich and North Essex, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Harwich and North EssexTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,300Essex North East1,2072781273300041,649
ColchesterEast Donyland2,080Colchester599751839470031,492
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,163Essex North East2,13761714911660072,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,103Essex North East1,1072508736260021,508
ColchesterPyefleet2,029Essex North East1,0193065912590011,456
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,973Essex North East1,85763220893540052,849
ColchesterWest Mersea5,615Essex North East2,7637621722231010074,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross3,645Essex North East9511,02348262960002,614
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,194Essex North East1,3711,17929211590073,009
TendringAlresford1,573Essex North East5862402722160031,128
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,781Essex North East94230514580041,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,742Essex North East81129126104170011,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,314Essex North East2,7591,25821212711200624,530
TendringGreat and Little Oakley1,684Harwich and Clacton7013762689300131,208
TendringGreat Bentley1,751Essex North East8332451482440021,256
TendringHarwich East2,091Harwich and Clacton578817138460021,500
TendringHarwich East Central3,963Harwich and Clacton1,2791,3005919480022,842
TendringHarwich West3,891Harwich and Clacton1,3621,1102928250032,791
TendringHarwich West Central3,871Harwich and Clacton1,3411,3073183100052,777
TendringLawford3,380Essex North East1,4827737823670022,425
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,612Essex North East1,76762445181320042,590
TendringRamsey and Parkeston1,866Harwich and Clacton6145462014880021,338
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,674Essex North East1,85357415534180012,635
 Total71,295 29,91915,5642,7871,6861,0420014251,140

The full details of these calculations are given on the Harwich and North Essex seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Witham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Witham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: WithamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BraintreeCoggeshall4,086Braintree1,9607577901140002,910
BraintreeGreat Notley and Black Notley1,934Braintree1,021303260280001,378
BraintreeHatfield Peverel and Terling4,650Witham and Maldon2,421760540770003,312
BraintreeKelvedon and Feering4,389Braintree2,1177949501200003,126
BraintreeSilver End and Cressing3,609Braintree1,3988237502740002,570
BraintreeWitham Central4,446Witham and Maldon1,88791124601210003,165
BraintreeWitham North5,289Witham and Maldon1,9491,43621601670003,768
BraintreeWitham South4,669Witham and Maldon2,0031,0491830910003,326
BraintreeWitham West5,438Witham and Maldon2,1501,37522001280003,873
ColchesterBirch and Winstree4,415Essex North East2,2266611810770003,145
ColchesterCopford and West Stanway1,489Essex North East798182540270001,061
ColchesterMarks Tey1,994Essex North East853411870690001,420
ColchesterStanway6,457Essex North East2,6531,07673701330004,599
ColchesterTiptree5,937Essex North East2,7831,12221501080004,228
MaldonGreat Totham2,901Witham and Maldon1,684289280660002,067
MaldonTollesbury1,543Witham and Maldon606369740500001,099
MaldonTolleshunt D'Arcy3,152Witham and Maldon1,52450011801030002,245
MaldonWickham Bishops and Woodham2,739Witham and Maldon1,637205280800001,950
 Total69,137 31,67013,0232,71601,83300049,242

The full details of these calculations are given on the Witham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Essex North East

The new seat of Essex North East is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Essex North East
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ColchesterBirch and Winstree4,233Witham2,2266611810770003,145
ColchesterCopford and West Stanway1,468Witham798182540270001,061
ColchesterDedham and Langham2,334Harwich and North Essex1,2072781273300041,649
ColchesterFordham and Stour4,180Harwich and North Essex2,13761714911660072,987
ColchesterGreat Tey2,138Harwich and North Essex1,1072508736260021,508
ColchesterMarks Tey1,983Witham853411870690001,420
ColchesterPyefleet2,087Harwich and North Essex1,0193065912590011,456
ColchesterStanway6,329Witham2,6531,07673701330004,599
ColchesterTiptree5,864Witham2,7831,12221501080004,228
ColchesterWest Bergholt and Eight Ash Green3,822Harwich and North Essex1,85763220893540052,849
ColchesterWest Mersea5,747Harwich and North Essex2,7637621722231010074,028
ColchesterWivenhoe Cross1,627Harwich and North Essex9511,02348262960002,614
ColchesterWivenhoe Quay4,049Harwich and North Essex1,3711,17929211590073,009
TendringAlresford1,677Harwich and North Essex5862402722160031,128
TendringArdleigh and Little Bromley1,846Harwich and North Essex94230514580041,278
TendringBradfield, Wrabness and Wix1,828Harwich and North Essex81129126104170011,250
TendringBrightlingsea6,398Harwich and North Essex2,7591,25821212711200624,530
TendringGreat Bentley1,751Harwich and North Essex8332451482440021,256
TendringLawford3,364Harwich and North Essex1,4827737823670022,425
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,797Clacton1,6114262719747025362,369
TendringManningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley and Tendring3,562Harwich and North Essex1,76762445181320042,590
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,673Clacton1,3605714411040043562,224
TendringThorrington, Frating, Elmstead and Great Bromley3,724Harwich and North Essex1,85357415534180012,635
 Total77,481 35,72913,8063,8711,1041,45606820456,238

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Essex North East.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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