Evesham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Evesham: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Nigel Huddleston  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:73,519
Turnout:73.5%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,93566.5%
LAB11,45421.2%
LIB3,5536.6%
UKIP1,4752.7%
Green1,3332.5%
MIN2810.5%
OTH120.0%
CON Majority24,48145.3%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Evesham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Evesham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Evesham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Redditch

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Redditch, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RedditchTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RedditchAbbey4,213Redditch1,4951,1371038926014963,005
RedditchAstwood Bank and Feckenham4,596Redditch1,969759348522012663,001
RedditchBatchley and Brockhill5,677Redditch2,0041,7475513132017784,154
RedditchCentral4,015Redditch1,3241,5317652290244113,267
RedditchChurch Hill5,654Redditch1,8961,73712313937016174,100
RedditchCrabbs Cross4,431Redditch1,842780869325013262,964
RedditchGreenlands5,970Redditch1,9601,968151150440218104,501
RedditchHeadless Cross and Oakenshaw6,588Redditch2,5111,44614114439019184,480
RedditchLodge Park3,633Redditch1,1791,351789026013162,861
RedditchMatchborough4,338Redditch1,6141,0771079930013463,067
RedditchWest4,360Redditch1,775721488424011352,770
RedditchWinyates6,020Redditch2,1401,57515614539018484,247
WychavonInkberrow4,576Evesham1,943458167070281122,787
 Total64,071 23,65216,2871,1741,37138002,2419945,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Redditch seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,233Evesham1,0783455790240001,594
WychavonBengeworth4,394Evesham1,9418011311521130003,138
WychavonBowbrook2,339Evesham1,10128716625240001,603
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,203Evesham94332416027210001,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,818Evesham1,9894619750870002,684
WychavonDodderhill2,129Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,02128012625210001,473
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,920Evesham1,0842194725190001,394
WychavonDroitwich Central1,930Bromsgrove and Droitwich71858412075270001,524
WychavonDroitwich East4,257Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,892851235145510003,174
WychavonDroitwich South East4,185Bromsgrove and Droitwich2,001591236127790003,034
WychavonDroitwich South West3,862Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,552789256126940002,817
WychavonDroitwich West3,747Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,5711,29712063980003,149
WychavonEvesham North3,324Evesham1,5598802551431080002,945
WychavonEvesham South3,732Evesham2,107686144661020003,105
WychavonFladbury2,214Evesham1,09029412526510001,586
WychavonGreat Hampton2,052Evesham8533765980570001,425
WychavonHartlebury2,152Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,11228811029210001,560
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,048Evesham1,1152765525500001,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,007Evesham1,1162594426210001,466
WychavonLittle Hampton3,601Evesham1,9317441171441000003,036
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,230Bromsgrove and Droitwich2,32152925052480003,200
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,370Worcester1,3002726528230001,688
WychavonOmbersley1,946Bromsgrove and Droitwich99323410222200001,371
WychavonPinvin2,309Evesham1,11936419433260001,736
WychavonThe Littletons2,221Evesham1,3083767635670001,862
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,197Evesham1,15223310422190001,530
 Total73,420 35,96712,6403,4511,6611,37100055,090

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,844Malvern and Ledbury1,46344810788360002,142
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,654Malvern and Ledbury1,0161815318170001,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,782Malvern and Ledbury1,42740321535340002,114
Malvern HillsChase4,648Malvern and Ledbury1,8741,0295601381770003,778
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,330Malvern and Ledbury1,3237071761071390002,452
Malvern HillsHallow1,488Malvern and Ledbury7812556219190001,136
Malvern HillsKempsey3,051Evesham1,63752814541440002,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,846Malvern and Ledbury1,0542105918200001,361
Malvern HillsLink4,825Malvern and Ledbury1,8841,235422145790003,765
Malvern HillsLongdon1,673Evesham92822014018190001,325
Malvern HillsMartley1,411Malvern and Ledbury7402405115400001,086
Malvern HillsMorton1,684Evesham8832507419240001,250
Malvern HillsPickersleigh4,433Malvern and Ledbury1,6301,551569141720003,963
Malvern HillsPowick3,058Malvern and Ledbury1,29650535983400002,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,039Malvern and Ledbury1,345585380771230002,510
Malvern HillsRipple1,436Evesham8341945618170001,119
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,544Malvern and Ledbury9141975537180001,221
Malvern HillsTenbury2,924Malvern and Ledbury1,58554111639370002,318
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,377Evesham1,643573156941170002,583
Malvern HillsWells2,630Malvern and Ledbury1,322378134291040001,967
Malvern HillsWest3,267Malvern and Ledbury1,540659217411670002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,662Malvern and Ledbury1,0041836315470001,312
WychavonBredon2,089Evesham1,1842299023230001,549
WychavonEckington2,215Evesham1,1404077423250001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville2,015Evesham1,1052497020610001,505
WychavonPershore5,836Evesham2,2621,155689164820004,352
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,913Evesham89026621216250001,409
 Total72,674 34,70413,3785,3041,4811,60600056,473

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Evesham

The new seat of Evesham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Evesham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsKempsey3,154Worcestershire West1,63752814541440002,395
Malvern HillsLongdon1,744Worcestershire West92822014018190001,325
Malvern HillsMorton1,645Worcestershire West8832507419240001,250
Malvern HillsRipple1,475Worcestershire West8341945618170001,119
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,404Worcestershire West1,643573156941170002,583
WychavonBadsey2,201Worcestershire Mid1,0783455790240001,594
WychavonBengeworth4,333Worcestershire Mid1,9418011311521130003,138
WychavonBowbrook2,215Worcestershire Mid1,10128716625240001,603
WychavonBredon2,038Worcestershire West1,1842299023230001,549
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,037Worcestershire Mid94332416027210001,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,706Worcestershire Mid1,9894619750870002,684
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,924Worcestershire Mid1,0842194725190001,394
WychavonEckington2,198Worcestershire West1,1404077423250001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,983Worcestershire West1,1052497020610001,505
WychavonEvesham North4,064Worcestershire Mid1,5598802551431080002,945
WychavonEvesham South4,288Worcestershire Mid2,107686144661020003,105
WychavonFladbury2,190Worcestershire Mid1,09029412526510001,586
WychavonGreat Hampton1,968Worcestershire Mid8533765980570001,425
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,100Worcestershire Mid1,1152765525500001,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,023Worcestershire Mid1,1162594426210001,466
WychavonInkberrow3,967Redditch1,943458167070281122,787
WychavonLittle Hampton4,194Worcestershire Mid1,9317441171441000003,036
WychavonPershore5,732Worcestershire West2,2621,155689164820004,352
WychavonPinvin2,396Worcestershire Mid1,11936419433260001,736
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,856Worcestershire West89026621216250001,409
WychavonThe Littletons2,572Worcestershire Mid1,3083767635670001,862
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,112Worcestershire Mid1,15223310422190001,530
 Total73,519 35,93511,4543,5531,4751,33302811254,043

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Evesham. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


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