Evesham: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Evesham: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Nigel Huddleston  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 72,477
Turnout: 74.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON35,96766.6%
LAB11,39521.1%
LIB3,5126.5%
UKIP1,5172.8%
Green1,3312.5%
MIN3090.6%
OTH130.0%
CON Majority24,57245.5%

See overview of other seats in West Midlands.

Evesham : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Evesham constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right2° Right
National Position13° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%59%52%
British Identity33%28%29%
Good Health63%45%48%
UK Born79%89%88%
Good Education58%35%39%
Good Job69%48%51%
High SEC66%46%51%
Average Age41.248.748.5
ABC1 Class79%49%53%

Evesham ranks #186 for "Leave", #47 for "Right" and #66 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Evesham: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Evesham been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Evesham

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Redditch

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Redditch, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: RedditchTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
RedditchAbbey4,278Redditch1,5031,16610755320133103,006
RedditchAstwood Bank and Feckenham4,270Redditch1,974816103850010573,000
RedditchBatchley and Brockhill5,911Redditch2,1101,690712934017764,153
RedditchCentral4,651Redditch1,2031,647126743023393,268
RedditchChurch Hill5,836Redditch1,8951,7019519425018564,101
RedditchCrabbs Cross4,219Redditch1,816801969817012972,964
RedditchGreenlands6,405Redditch2,0141,93513618324020364,501
RedditchHeadless Cross and Oakenshaw6,374Redditch2,4401,48122311439017684,481
RedditchLodge Park4,072Redditch1,1351,36150130240150102,860
RedditchMatchborough4,364Redditch1,5651,11411411627012843,068
RedditchWest3,942Redditch1,771756405228011672,770
RedditchWinyates6,045Redditch2,1321,52016421022019454,247
WychavonInkberrow3,967Evesham2,095301546170309132,786
 Total64,334 23,65316,2891,1731,37238202,2389845,205

The full details of these calculations are given on the Redditch seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,201Evesham9384845984290001,594
WychavonBengeworth4,333Evesham1,962751852121280003,138
WychavonBowbrook2,215Evesham1,0103122622190001,605
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,037Evesham87729823338290001,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,706Evesham2,08137513115820002,684
WychavonDodderhill2,033Bromsgrove and Droitwich99829115812130001,472
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,924Evesham1,187116505350001,393
WychavonDroitwich Central2,103Bromsgrove and Droitwich67961790120180001,524
WychavonDroitwich East4,382Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,863962202113340003,174
WychavonDroitwich South East4,189Bromsgrove and Droitwich2,09858923469440003,034
WychavonDroitwich South West3,890Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,530838254133630002,818
WychavonDroitwich West4,346Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,4811,4504384910003,149
WychavonEvesham North4,064Evesham1,6078281931981170002,943
WychavonEvesham South4,288Evesham2,150653110521400003,105
WychavonFladbury2,190Evesham1,0922911418550001,587
WychavonGreat Hampton1,968Evesham76738265163480001,425
WychavonHartlebury2,155Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,0903458333110001,562
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,100Evesham1,1152844112690001,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,023Evesham1,2171544535150001,466
WychavonLittle Hampton4,194Evesham1,909771711751120003,038
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,418Bromsgrove and Droitwich2,36859917740160003,200
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,331Worcester1,468126682240001,688
WychavonOmbersley1,895Bromsgrove and Droitwich1,0641671162050001,372
WychavonPinvin2,396Evesham9743783509240001,735
WychavonThe Littletons2,572Evesham1,23339575221390001,864
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,112Evesham1,2101891164100001,529
 Total76,065 35,96812,6453,4521,6601,37000055,095

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,821Malvern and Ledbury1,4345168965380002,142
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,692Malvern and Ledbury1,14875262970001,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,786Malvern and Ledbury1,48538119532220002,115
Malvern HillsChase4,976Malvern and Ledbury1,988890641881710003,778
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,231Malvern and Ledbury1,2237801431631440002,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,496Malvern and Ledbury721367298100001,135
Malvern HillsKempsey3,154Evesham1,4558186840140002,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,793Malvern and Ledbury1,1541294014240001,361
Malvern HillsLink4,959Malvern and Ledbury1,8211,325412138680003,764
Malvern HillsLongdon1,744Evesham9522011602100001,325
Malvern HillsMartley1,432Malvern and Ledbury7582622414280001,086
Malvern HillsMorton1,645Evesham829367202580001,249
Malvern HillsPickersleigh5,220Malvern and Ledbury1,6381,453660165470003,963
Malvern HillsPowick3,007Malvern and Ledbury1,227376553101260002,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,306Malvern and Ledbury1,376426497481630002,510
Malvern HillsRipple1,475Evesham841235231830001,120
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,608Malvern and Ledbury9031902384210001,221
Malvern HillsTenbury3,052Malvern and Ledbury1,62846810284350002,317
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,404Evesham1,602654130122760002,584
Malvern HillsWells2,592Malvern and Ledbury1,21647514021330001,966
Malvern HillsWest3,457Malvern and Ledbury1,38565322423600002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,729Malvern and Ledbury1,056178298410001,312
WychavonBredon2,038Evesham1,32514959590001,547
WychavonEckington2,198Evesham1,171441272280001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,983Evesham1,1292085320940001,504
WychavonPershore5,732Evesham2,3721,074697182280004,353
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,856Evesham8672862431130001,410
 Total74,386 34,70413,3775,3071,4821,60100056,471

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Evesham

The new seat of Evesham is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Evesham
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsKempsey3,051Worcestershire West1,4558186840140002,395
Malvern HillsLongdon1,673Worcestershire West9522011602100001,325
Malvern HillsMorton1,684Worcestershire West829367202580001,249
Malvern HillsRipple1,436Worcestershire West841235231830001,120
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,377Worcestershire West1,602654130122760002,584
WychavonBadsey2,233Worcestershire Mid9384845984290001,594
WychavonBengeworth4,394Worcestershire Mid1,962751852121280003,138
WychavonBowbrook2,339Worcestershire Mid1,0103122622190001,605
WychavonBredon2,089Worcestershire West1,32514959590001,547
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,203Worcestershire Mid87729823338290001,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,818Worcestershire Mid2,08137513115820002,684
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,920Worcestershire Mid1,187116505350001,393
WychavonEckington2,215Worcestershire West1,171441272280001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville2,015Worcestershire West1,1292085320940001,504
WychavonEvesham North3,324Worcestershire Mid1,6078281931981170002,943
WychavonEvesham South3,732Worcestershire Mid2,150653110521400003,105
WychavonFladbury2,214Worcestershire Mid1,0922911418550001,587
WychavonGreat Hampton2,052Worcestershire Mid76738265163480001,425
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,048Worcestershire Mid1,1152844112690001,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,007Worcestershire Mid1,2171544535150001,466
WychavonInkberrow4,576Redditch2,095301546170309132,786
WychavonLittle Hampton3,601Worcestershire Mid1,909771711751120003,038
WychavonPershore5,836Worcestershire West2,3721,074697182280004,353
WychavonPinvin2,309Worcestershire Mid9743783509240001,735
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,913Worcestershire West8672862431130001,410
WychavonThe Littletons2,221Worcestershire Mid1,23339575221390001,864
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,197Worcestershire Mid1,2101891164100001,529
 Total72,477 35,96711,3953,5121,5171,33103091354,044

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Evesham.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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