Exeter: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Exeter: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Ben Bradshaw  (LAB)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 76,008
Turnout: 78.2%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB35,43259.6%
CON19,95433.6%
LIB1,6052.7%
Green1,0261.7%
MIN8221.4%
OTH2930.5%
UKIP2780.5%
LAB Majority15,47826.1%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Exeter : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Exeter constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position11° Left1° Right
National Position8° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity32%27%29%
Good Health57%47%48%
UK Born89%92%88%
Good Education47%40%39%
Good Job63%50%51%
High SEC69%52%51%
Average Age48.850.548.5
ABC1 Class67%54%53%

Exeter ranks #458 for "Leave", #501 for "Right" and #455 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Exeter: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Exeter been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Exeter

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Devon East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Devon EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonBroadclyst4,245Devon East1,6842616647001,041123,111
East DevonBudleigh5,243Devon East2,33116210446001,190103,843
East DevonClyst Valley2,007Devon East1,14878160023621,471
East DevonExmouth Brixington5,539Devon East2,26847666101001,137114,059
East DevonExmouth Halsdon5,910Devon East2,11261915680001,342224,331
East DevonExmouth Littleham6,311Devon East2,349408122336001,392184,625
East DevonExmouth Town6,097Devon East1,83299121845001,357244,467
East DevonExmouth Withycombe Raleigh6,357Devon East2,066741265119001,444244,659
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell34Tiverton and Honiton81010014024
East DevonNewton Poppleford and Harpford1,837Devon East646401700641101,345
East DevonOttery St Mary Rural3,568Devon East1,36840189001,167132,615
East DevonOttery St Mary Town4,317Devon East1,2323461117001,532273,165
East DevonRaleigh1,864Devon East607772200665121,365
East DevonSidmouth Rural1,916Devon East67955940064981,404
East DevonSidmouth Sidford5,589Devon East1,90313614453001,841204,097
East DevonSidmouth Town4,546Devon East1,557441172001,595183,333
East DevonWhimple2,062Devon East85817263100040361,512
East DevonWoodbury and Lympstone4,623Devon East1,1831381324002,010213,389
ExeterSt Loyes5,443Exeter1,7351,0974227800822153,989
ExeterTopsham4,872Devon East1,73697350170079063,572
 Total82,380 29,3026,8551,4681,2040021,26827960,376

The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Exeter

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Exeter, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ExeterTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ExeterAlphington6,301Exeter1,8332,5328904300184,515
ExeterCowick4,125Exeter1,0721,7906401900112,956
ExeterDuryard3,624Exeter1,2111,245590730092,597
ExeterExwick6,611Exeter1,5853,0454404000244,738
ExeterHeavitree4,234Exeter9241,94010005900113,034
ExeterMincinglake4,037Exeter9871,850320180062,893
ExeterNewtown4,292Exeter6312,19587013600273,076
ExeterPennsylvania3,961Exeter1,1341,4751820900392,839
ExeterPinhoe4,712Exeter1,3231,9893401700133,376
ExeterPolsloe5,061Exeter1,0762,297106013000193,628
ExeterPriory6,727Exeter1,4553,2635003300204,821
ExeterSt David's4,781Exeter7762,327169013000253,427
ExeterSt James4,883Exeter1,0562,10316301720063,500
ExeterSt Leonard's3,774Exeter9891,4901630590052,706
ExeterSt Thomas4,687Exeter9022,19317206100313,359
ExeterWhipton and Barton5,520Exeter1,2652,6014902700143,956
 Total77,330 18,21934,3351,56301,0260027855,421

The full details of these calculations are given on the Exeter seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Exeter

The new seat of Exeter is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Exeter
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ExeterAlphington6,189Exeter1,8332,5328904300184,515
ExeterCowick4,247Exeter1,0721,7906401900112,956
ExeterDuryard2,218Exeter1,2111,245590730092,597
ExeterExwick6,138Exeter1,5853,0454404000244,738
ExeterHeavitree3,997Exeter9241,94010005900113,034
ExeterMincinglake3,952Exeter9871,850320180062,893
ExeterNewtown3,523Exeter6312,19587013600273,076
ExeterPennsylvania3,855Exeter1,1341,4751820900392,839
ExeterPinhoe4,984Exeter1,3231,9893401700133,376
ExeterPolsloe4,167Exeter1,0762,297106013000193,628
ExeterPriory6,468Exeter1,4553,2635003300204,821
ExeterSt David's3,863Exeter7762,327169013000253,427
ExeterSt James3,908Exeter1,0562,10316301720063,500
ExeterSt Leonard's3,710Exeter9891,4901630590052,706
ExeterSt Loyes4,604Devon East1,7351,0974227800822153,989
ExeterSt Thomas4,588Exeter9022,19317206100313,359
ExeterWhipton and Barton5,597Exeter1,2652,6014902700143,956
 Total76,008 19,95435,4321,6052781,026082229359,410

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Exeter.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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