Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (changed seat)  (LAB)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 72,184
Turnout: 81.6%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB26,30744.6%
CON26,30444.6%
LIB4,7798.1%
Green1,0581.8%
UKIP4790.8%
LAB Majority30.0%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABCONCON
Economic Position3° Left1° Right
National Position2° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%40%39%
Good Job58%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age51.650.548.5
ABC1 Class61%54%53%

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth ranks #229 for "Leave", #398 for "Right" and #297 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Camborne and Redruth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Camborne and Redruth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Camborne and RedruthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves2,972Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,156866850270002,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,650Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1931,334690260002,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,441Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1501,168750790002,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan3,430Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9881,1632160980002,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian3,008Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0021,046840270002,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,488Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8537455801310001,787
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,739Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,787812150710002,685
CornwallCrowan and Wendron1,894St Ives820491300190001,360
CornwallFour Lanes3,543Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2261,1741190270002,546
CornwallGwinear-Gwithian and St Erth2,500St Ives991649830730001,796
CornwallHayle North3,776St Ives1,2251,3101040730002,712
CornwallHayle South3,325St Ives1,1271,147860280002,388
CornwallIllogan3,728Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,3891,0162370360002,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,784Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,4131,196610480002,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias3,365Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2598083070440002,418
CornwallMount Hawke and Portreath3,589Truro and Newquay7968159200460002,577
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,269Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9211,349670100002,347
CornwallRedruth Central3,013Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,143911950150002,164
CornwallRedruth North4,762Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,1752,0891140410003,419
CornwallRedruth South3,209Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0171,178570530002,305
CornwallSt Agnes437Truro and Newquay138759309000315
CornwallSt Keverne and Meneage541St Ives232843070000389
 Total67,463 23,00121,4262,97801,05100048,456

The full details of these calculations are given on the Camborne and Redruth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Truro and Falmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Truro and Falmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Truro and FalmouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,296Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth378451863930000984
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,195Truro and Newquay1,4377341638530002,422
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,971Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,37558124521320002,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,822Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,2441,0835056430002,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,789Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth8221,64926796410002,875
CornwallFalmouth Smithick3,916Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9341,51741001080002,969
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,755Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,0131,48026164310002,849
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,952Truro and Newquay1,80983731325140002,998
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,565Truro and Newquay1,511630394111580002,704
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,256Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth424327169302000952
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,302Truro and Newquay1,48180716739100002,504
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,298Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth1,5261,08554459450003,259
CornwallPenryn West3,913Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth9161,279633106330002,967
CornwallPerranporth3,726Truro and Newquay1,2601,22528030290002,824
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,746Truro and Newquay9358862144710002,083
CornwallRoseland2,827Truro and Newquay1,1187532373430002,145
CornwallSt Agnes3,254Truro and Newquay9775878703310002,468
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,405Truro and Newquay1,0481,0454543320002,582
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,417Truro and Newquay1,3771,42743161100003,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,740Truro and Newquay9648259930530002,835
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,794Truro and Newquay1,1521,13850160270002,878
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,751Truro and Newquay1,42298432647660002,845
 Total74,690 25,12321,3308,46389983200056,647

The full details of these calculations are given on the Truro and Falmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth

The new seat of Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCamborne Pendarves3,049Camborne and Redruth1,156866850270002,134
CornwallCamborne Roskear3,261Camborne and Redruth1,1931,334690260002,622
CornwallCamborne Trelowarren3,036Camborne and Redruth1,1501,168750790002,472
CornwallCamborne Treslothan2,887Camborne and Redruth9881,1632160980002,465
CornwallCamborne Treswithian2,810Camborne and Redruth1,0021,046840270002,159
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day2,387Camborne and Redruth80978695261060001,822
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,243Truro and Falmouth422410491355000949
CornwallConstantine, Mawnan and Budock3,656Camborne and Redruth1,787812150710002,685
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,638Truro and Falmouth1,37558124521320002,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,591Truro and Falmouth1,2441,0835056430002,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,092Truro and Falmouth8221,64926796410002,875
CornwallFalmouth Smithick2,964Truro and Falmouth9341,51741001080002,969
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,363Truro and Falmouth1,0131,48026164310002,849
CornwallFour Lanes3,305Camborne and Redruth1,2261,1741190270002,546
CornwallIllogan3,509Camborne and Redruth1,3891,0162370360002,678
CornwallLanner and Stithians3,640Camborne and Redruth1,4131,196610480002,718
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias2,705Camborne and Redruth1,22682734722340002,456
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,009Truro and Falmouth457308129812000914
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor3,904Truro and Falmouth1,5261,08554459450003,259
CornwallPenryn West3,239Truro and Falmouth9161,279633106330002,967
CornwallPool and Tehidy3,001Camborne and Redruth9211,349670100002,347
CornwallRedruth Central2,792Camborne and Redruth1,143911950150002,164
CornwallRedruth North4,210Camborne and Redruth1,1752,0891140410003,419
CornwallRedruth South2,893Camborne and Redruth1,0171,178570530002,305
 Total72,184 26,30426,3074,7794791,05800058,927

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Falmouth, Camborne and Redruth.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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