Fermanagh and South Tyrone: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Overview

 Projection: NAT seat 

Implied MP at 2015: Unknown (changed seat)  (NAT)
County/Area: Fermanagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 72,946
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2015 VotesImplied 2015 Share
NAT21,96845.8%
CON18,99739.6%
LAB3,6517.6%
LIB2,0534.3%
Green6611.4%
OTH4901.0%
MIN1370.3%
UKIP130.0%
NAT Majority2,9716.2%

See overview of other seats in Northern Ireland.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2015 had the new boundaries for Fermanagh and South Tyrone been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2015. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Fermanagh and South TyroneTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughgall509Upper Bann and Blackwater1961400814705370
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches374Upper Bann and Blackwater1451100610804274
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,129Fermanagh and South Tyrone84811300165570101,544
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison1,693Fermanagh and South Tyrone4967500136250191,228
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa1,883Fermanagh and South Tyrone7501000014493091,366
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,045Fermanagh and South Tyrone5999100157560231,484
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,466Fermanagh and South Tyrone337600010657001,064
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,323Fermanagh and South Tyrone8587100466730371,685
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly1,897Fermanagh and South Tyrone5558400147000221,375
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,732Fermanagh and South Tyrone5077700136400201,257
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,448Fermanagh and South Tyrone332600010649001,051
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh1,826Fermanagh and South Tyrone728970014478091,326
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,175Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426300351,577
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley1,672Fermanagh and South Tyrone4897500136180191,214
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,285Fermanagh and South Tyrone91112100175980111,658
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,135Fermanagh and South Tyrone7896500416180341,547
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick2,162Fermanagh and South Tyrone7996600426280351,570
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,927Fermanagh and South Tyrone442800013864001,399
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,048Fermanagh and South Tyrone470850014917001,486
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,591Fermanagh and South Tyrone365660011712001,154
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,176Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426310351,578
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,349Fermanagh and South Tyrone3095600960400978
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,693Fermanagh and South Tyrone6265200324900271,227
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo1,734Fermanagh and South Tyrone691920013453081,257
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,224Fermanagh and South Tyrone737960020760001,613
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,351Fermanagh and South Tyrone7791010022804001,706
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,951Fermanagh and South Tyrone647840018667001,416
Mid UlsterBallysaggart3,106Upper Bann and Blackwater1,1399100429230602,255
Mid UlsterCaledon2,417Upper Bann and Blackwater8011040022826001,753
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,595Fermanagh and South Tyrone529690015545001,158
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,121Fermanagh and South Tyrone703920019725001,539
Mid UlsterKillyman1,872Upper Bann and Blackwater6855500255550361,356
Mid UlsterKillymeal2,617Upper Bann and Blackwater9607700357760511,899
Mid UlsterMoy2,504Upper Bann and Blackwater9187300347440491,818
Mid UlsterMoygashel2,412Upper Bann and Blackwater8847100327170471,751
Mid UlsterMullaghmore2,662Tyrone North9767800367910521,933
 Total70,104 23,6082,7340078823,079065750,866

The full details of these calculations are given on the Fermanagh and South Tyrone seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tyrone West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tyrone West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Tyrone WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,454Tyrone North14725429804160272711,485
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,609Tyrone North15627031704464176761,580
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,417Fermanagh and South Tyrone30317129402161729291,464
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,433Tyrone North14625229604159771711,474
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,045Tyrone North38121637002677737371,844
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,279Fermanagh and South Tyrone28516127802058028281,380
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,186Tyrone North13122726503653764631,323
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,284Fermanagh and South Tyrone28516227802058228281,383
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,652Tyrone North33218932202367632321,606
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk866Foyle721331580181032020524
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,494Tyrone North14925930304261273721,510
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,245Tyrone North13523227303755166651,359
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,002Tyrone North21715898039688661,212
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,151Tyrone North17831424602048529291,301
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,468Tyrone North20436128302355534331,493
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,755Tyrone North14625720101639624241,064
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,974Fermanagh and South Tyrone22419522001152211111,194
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,146Tyrone North233169105042737661,298
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,978Fermanagh and South Tyrone22419622101152211111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,969Tyrone North22319521901152111111,191
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,762Fermanagh and South Tyrone20017519601046510101,066
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,278Tyrone North247180111044783661,377
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,294Tyrone North19033626202151732311,389
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,131Tyrone North17731224402048029291,291
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,794Fermanagh and South Tyrone20317820001047510101,086
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,834Tyrone North19914590036630661,112
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,009Tyrone North21815998039690661,216
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,929Tyrone North16028222101843527261,169
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,621Tyrone North1761287903155655980
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,793Fermanagh and South Tyrone20417820001047410101,086
 Total63,852 6,1456,4446,746078116,80686986238,653

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tyrone West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ulster Mid

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ulster Mid, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ulster MidTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
New SeatUUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,484Tyrone North20122813824079466491,500
Mid UlsterBallygawley402Fermanagh and South Tyrone612861508800243
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,661Glenshane272183263250863001,606
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,419Glenshane247166240220784001,459
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield687Fermanagh and South Tyrone104471058015100415
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,442Glenshane250167241220792001,472
Mid UlsterCoagh2,195Tyrone North31213414746058160441,324
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,391Upper Bann and Blackwater19322013223076364471,442
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,764Upper Bann and Blackwater22425415327088274541,668
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,117Tyrone North30212814244056058431,277
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,420Tyrone North34514616252064067491,461
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,407Tyrone North34314616152063666491,453
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,348Glenshane1601843123204771451071,417
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,483Tyrone North20122813824079466491,500
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,012Glenshane206138200190652001,215
Mid UlsterGlebe2,519Glenshane1711983343405121561151,520
Mid UlsterKillyman409Upper Bann and Blackwater50194550594029247
Mid UlsterKillymeal228Upper Bann and Blackwater28112630332216139
Mid UlsterLissan2,418Glenshane1641903213304911501101,459
Mid UlsterLoughry1,932Tyrone North27611813041051153391,168
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,955Glenshane1021479416074743311,180
Mid UlsterMaghera2,519Glenshane13219012220096255401,521
Mid UlsterOaklands2,078Tyrone North29512613944054957421,252
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,567Tyrone North36615517255067870521,548
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,097Tyrone North17019311620066956411,265
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,279Glenshane11917111018087050371,375
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,407Glenshane12618111519092052391,452
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,488Glenshane1691963303405061541131,502
Mid UlsterTobermore2,403Glenshane246165238220779001,450
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,463Glenshane1671933273305011521121,485
Mid UlsterValley2,424Glenshane12618311620092653391,463
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,411Upper Bann and Blackwater19522213323076964471,453
 Total67,829 6,3235,0555,463865019,9391,8931,39340,931

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ulster Mid seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

The new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
DistrictWardElectorate
2015
Old Seat UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,463Tyrone West30317129402161729291,464
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,426Tyrone West28516127802058028281,380
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,275Tyrone West28516227802058228281,383
Fermanagh and OmaghBallinamallard2,077Fermanagh and South Tyrone84811300165570101,544
Fermanagh and OmaghBelcoo and Garrison2,055Fermanagh and South Tyrone4967500136250191,228
Fermanagh and OmaghBelleek and Boa2,260Fermanagh and South Tyrone7501000014493091,366
Fermanagh and OmaghBoho, Cleenish and Letterbreen2,321Fermanagh and South Tyrone5999100157560231,484
Fermanagh and OmaghBrookeborough1,846Fermanagh and South Tyrone337600010657001,064
Fermanagh and OmaghCastlecoole2,088Fermanagh and South Tyrone8587100466730371,685
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrygonnelly2,022Fermanagh and South Tyrone5558400147000221,375
Fermanagh and OmaghDerrylin1,861Fermanagh and South Tyrone5077700136400201,257
Fermanagh and OmaghDonagh1,954Fermanagh and South Tyrone332600010649001,051
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,948Tyrone West22419522001152211111,194
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin2,058Tyrone West22419622101152211111,196
Fermanagh and OmaghEderney and Kesh2,049Fermanagh and South Tyrone728970014478091,326
Fermanagh and OmaghErne2,301Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426300351,577
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,779Tyrone West20017519601046510101,066
Fermanagh and OmaghFlorence Court and Kinawley2,110Fermanagh and South Tyrone4897500136180191,214
Fermanagh and OmaghIrvinestown2,103Fermanagh and South Tyrone91112100175980111,658
Fermanagh and OmaghLisbellaw2,185Fermanagh and South Tyrone7896500416180341,547
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnarrick1,942Fermanagh and South Tyrone7996600426280351,570
Fermanagh and OmaghLisnaskea1,798Fermanagh and South Tyrone442800013864001,399
Fermanagh and OmaghMaguiresbridge2,371Fermanagh and South Tyrone470850014917001,486
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownbutler1,875Fermanagh and South Tyrone365660011712001,154
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,992Tyrone West20317820001047510101,086
Fermanagh and OmaghPortora2,049Fermanagh and South Tyrone8046600426310351,578
Fermanagh and OmaghRosslea1,728Fermanagh and South Tyrone3095600960400978
Fermanagh and OmaghRossorry1,712Fermanagh and South Tyrone6265200324900271,227
Fermanagh and OmaghTempo2,040Fermanagh and South Tyrone691920013453081,257
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,872Tyrone West20417820001047410101,086
Mid UlsterAugher and Clogher2,448Fermanagh and South Tyrone737960020760001,613
Mid UlsterAughnacloy2,239Fermanagh and South Tyrone7791010022804001,706
Mid UlsterBallygawley1,894Fermanagh and South Tyrone5879351415626001,376
Mid UlsterBallygawley389Ulster Mid12119101312900283
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield696Ulster Mid19035322520900473
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield1,622Fermanagh and South Tyrone4438173610487001,100
Mid UlsterFivemiletown2,098Fermanagh and South Tyrone703920019725001,539
 Total72,946 18,9973,6512,0531366121,96813749047,970

And these are the implied results for 2015 for the new seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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