Finchley and Enfield Southgate: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Finchley and Enfield Southgate: Overview

 Projection: LAB seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Bambos Charalambous  (LAB)
County/Area: Barnet (London)
Electorate: 73,847
Turnout: 75.7%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB28,36850.7%
CON23,41541.9%
LIB2,6584.8%
Green1,2772.3%
UKIP2130.4%
LAB Majority4,9538.9%

See overview of other seats in London.

Finchley and Enfield Southgate : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Finchley and Enfield Southgate constituency, the 'London' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatLondonAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position14° Right11° Right
National Position31° Int29° Int1° Int
EU Leave %35%40%52%
British Identity27%38%29%
Good Health46%50%48%
UK Born94%64%88%
Good Education42%48%39%
Good Job53%61%51%
High SEC57%55%51%
Average Age53.044.148.5
ABC1 Class56%62%53%

Finchley and Enfield Southgate ranks #556 for "Leave", #41 for "Right" and #568 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Finchley and Enfield Southgate: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Finchley and Enfield Southgate been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Finchley and Enfield Southgate

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Chipping Barnet

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Chipping Barnet, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Chipping BarnetTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BarnetBrunswick Park11,267Chipping Barnet;
Finchley and Enfield Southgate
3,7703,9083320980008,108
BarnetCoppetts11,811Finchley and Enfield Southgate2,9874,74544603220008,500
BarnetEast Barnet11,105Chipping Barnet3,4623,92039402160007,992
BarnetHigh Barnet10,534Chipping Barnet3,5792,86077003720007,581
BarnetOakleigh10,885Chipping Barnet4,2963,03934501520007,832
BarnetTotteridge10,443Chipping Barnet4,3802,6763610970007,514
BarnetUnderhill10,974Chipping Barnet3,2054,17836401490007,896
 Total77,019 25,67925,3263,01201,40600055,423

The full details of these calculations are given on the Chipping Barnet seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Enfield Southgate

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Enfield Southgate, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Enfield SouthgateTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
EnfieldBowes9,382Hornsey and Wood Green1,8624,68423801780006,962
EnfieldCockfosters9,246Finchley and Enfield Southgate3,9572,6991650390006,860
EnfieldGrange8,500Enfield3,3752,5193330800006,307
EnfieldPalmers Green10,142Edmonton2,3784,7842690930007,524
EnfieldSouthgate9,650Finchley and Enfield Southgate3,2893,46330501020007,159
EnfieldSouthgate Green9,199Finchley and Enfield Southgate2,8383,57229301210006,824
EnfieldWinchmore Hill9,018Finchley and Enfield Southgate2,9353,26932201660006,692
 Total65,137 20,63424,9901,925077900048,328

The full details of these calculations are given on the Enfield Southgate seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Finchley and Golders Green

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Finchley and Golders Green, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Finchley and Golders GreenTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BarnetChilds Hill12,151Hampstead3,7343,6881,17917850008,703
BarnetEast Finchley9,687Finchley and Enfield Southgate2,0414,071486602800006,938
BarnetFinchley Church End9,535Chipping Barnet4,0512,35230480420006,829
BarnetGarden Suburb9,620Hampstead4,4932,0133194620006,891
BarnetGolders Green11,411Hendon4,7942,899308711020008,174
BarnetWest Finchley10,041Chipping Barnet2,5823,924444771640007,191
BarnetWoodhouse10,693Finchley and Enfield Southgate2,9043,9944241531830007,658
 Total73,138 24,59922,9413,46446291800052,384

The full details of these calculations are given on the Finchley and Golders Green seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Finchley and Enfield Southgate

The new seat of Finchley and Enfield Southgate is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Finchley and Enfield Southgate
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
BarnetBrunswick Park7,075Chipping Barnet2,4642,5552170640005,300
BarnetCoppetts9,989Chipping Barnet2,9874,74544603220008,500
BarnetEast Finchley9,748Finchley and Golders Green2,0414,071486602800006,938
BarnetWoodhouse10,391Finchley and Golders Green2,9043,9944241531830007,658
EnfieldCockfosters9,532Enfield Southgate3,9572,6991650390006,860
EnfieldSouthgate9,178Enfield Southgate3,2893,46330501020007,159
EnfieldSouthgate Green8,805Enfield Southgate2,8383,57229301210006,824
EnfieldWinchmore Hill9,129Enfield Southgate2,9353,26932201660006,692
 Total73,847 23,41528,3682,6582131,27700055,931

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Finchley and Enfield Southgate.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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