Gloucestershire West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Gloucestershire West: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Mark Harper  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 72,354
Turnout: 75.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON30,06955.2%
LAB18,91334.7%
LIB2,3764.4%
Green1,2852.4%
UKIP1,2742.3%
OTH5711.0%
CON Majority11,15620.5%

See overview of other seats in South West.

Gloucestershire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Gloucestershire West constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position1° Right
National Position6° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC49%52%51%
Average Age52.050.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Gloucestershire West ranks #184 for "Leave", #344 for "Right" and #223 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gloucestershire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Gloucestershire West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Gloucestershire West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Forest of Dean

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Forest of Dean, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Forest of DeanTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,541Gloucestershire West1,02267352663200101,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,424Gloucestershire West6602572026730031,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,411Gloucestershire West449497495270051,032
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,441Gloucestershire West61633229163000291,052
Forest of DeanBream2,591Gloucestershire West83289242753700151,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,587Gloucestershire West8662051626390061,158
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,215Gloucestershire West541295171314008888
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,464Gloucestershire West66928259192100191,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,927Gloucestershire West8471,07869794700172,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West4,069Gloucestershire West1,1351,4741521355900172,972
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,518Gloucestershire West818825131103100241,839
Forest of DeanColeford East4,363Gloucestershire West1,4161,524481046000333,185
Forest of DeanHartpury2,016Gloucestershire West1,0313333222400501,472
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,376Gloucestershire West6612682913310031,005
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,102Gloucestershire West1,130878429910300112,263
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,968Gloucestershire West1,3151,271931008400352,898
Forest of DeanLydney East4,137Gloucestershire West1,4411,274981374900213,020
Forest of DeanLydney North1,529Gloucestershire West6143854155170041,116
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,804Gloucestershire West1,1891,229210735300242,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,110Gloucestershire West1,283677183275200482,270
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,691Gloucestershire West1,1226517267400411,966
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,534Gloucestershire West1,19646146197900481,849
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,292Gloucestershire West651209421140025942
Forest of DeanPillowell2,897Gloucestershire West1,09882547824800172,117
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,553Gloucestershire West8082531916320071,135
Forest of DeanTibberton1,367Gloucestershire West70618081124006998
Forest of DeanTidenham4,535Gloucestershire West2,067835282336300313,311
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,436Gloucestershire West1,9125312822200142,509
 Total70,898 28,09518,5942,0291,2401,2390057151,768

The full details of these calculations are given on the Forest of Dean seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Tewkesbury

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Tewkesbury, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: TewkesburyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury4,221Tewkesbury1,6121,04529921040003,062
CheltenhamSwindon Village4,737Tewkesbury1,44992596317820003,436
GloucesterLonglevens7,920Gloucester3,2571,5585521871920005,746
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff3,761Tewkesbury1,73956727389600002,728
TewkesburyBadgeworth1,755Tewkesbury8741602094250001,272
TewkesburyBrockworth5,933Tewkesbury2,3921,239369912120004,303
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield3,426Tewkesbury1,4016903403520002,486
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's5,712Tewkesbury2,1221,01090522840004,143
TewkesburyCleeve Grange1,682Tewkesbury7221862837220001,220
TewkesburyCleeve Hill3,424Tewkesbury2,1511561551210002,484
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's3,628Tewkesbury1,4836824067540002,632
TewkesburyCleeve West3,619Tewkesbury1,6163965704390002,625
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,748Gloucestershire West1,97431934734460002,720
TewkesburyHucclecote1,261Tewkesbury615104174220000915
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley2,399Tewkesbury1,03527931586250001,740
TewkesburyIsbourne1,630Tewkesbury1,0419045060001,182
TewkesburyNorthway4,218Tewkesbury1,717659368244720003,060
TewkesburyOxenton Hill1,332Tewkesbury8255374012000964
TewkesburyShurdington1,600Tewkesbury73617921417140001,160
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown1,634Tewkesbury8271877468290001,185
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park3,417Tewkesbury1,407637250114710002,479
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton3,757Tewkesbury1,435862200941350002,726
TewkesburyTwyning1,377Tewkesbury5861717954109000999
TewkesburyWinchcombe5,251Tewkesbury2,42972051556880003,808
 Total81,442 35,44512,8747,9791,2031,57400059,075

The full details of these calculations are given on the Tewkesbury seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Gloucestershire West

The new seat of Gloucestershire West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Gloucestershire West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest of DeanAlvington, Aylburton and West Lydney2,451Forest of Dean1,02267352663200101,855
Forest of DeanAwre1,351Forest of Dean6602572026730031,039
Forest of DeanBerry Hill1,293Forest of Dean449497495270051,032
Forest of DeanBlaisdon and Longhope1,430Forest of Dean61633229163000291,052
Forest of DeanBream2,508Forest of Dean83289242753700151,893
Forest of DeanBromesberrow and Dymock1,548Forest of Dean8662051626390061,158
Forest of DeanChristchurch and English Bicknor1,307Forest of Dean541295171314008888
Forest of DeanChurcham and Huntley1,437Forest of Dean66928259192100191,069
Forest of DeanCinderford East2,593Forest of Dean8471,07869794700172,137
Forest of DeanCinderford West3,846Forest of Dean1,1351,4741521355900172,972
Forest of DeanColeford Central2,669Forest of Dean818825131103100241,839
Forest of DeanColeford East4,167Forest of Dean1,4161,524481046000333,185
Forest of DeanHartpury1,375Forest of Dean1,0313333222400501,472
Forest of DeanHewelsfield and Woolaston1,422Forest of Dean6612682913310031,005
Forest of DeanLittledean and Ruspidge3,211Forest of Dean1,130878429910300112,263
Forest of DeanLydbrook and Ruardean3,914Forest of Dean1,3151,271931008400352,898
Forest of DeanLydney East4,009Forest of Dean1,4411,274981374900213,020
Forest of DeanLydney North1,512Forest of Dean6143854155170041,116
Forest of DeanMitcheldean and Drybrook3,553Forest of Dean1,1891,229210735300242,778
Forest of DeanNewent Central3,140Forest of Dean1,283677183275200482,270
Forest of DeanNewland and St Briavels2,772Forest of Dean1,1226517267400411,966
Forest of DeanNewnham and Westbury2,478Forest of Dean1,19646146197900481,849
Forest of DeanOxenhall and Newent North East1,287Forest of Dean651209421140025942
Forest of DeanPillowell2,910Forest of Dean1,09882547824800172,117
Forest of DeanRedmarley1,449Forest of Dean8082531916320071,135
Forest of DeanTibberton1,389Forest of Dean70618081124006998
Forest of DeanTidenham4,154Forest of Dean2,067835282336300313,311
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,764Tewkesbury1,97431934734460002,720
TewkesburyHighnam with Haw Bridge3,415Forest of Dean1,9125312822200142,509
 Total72,354 30,06918,9132,3761,2741,2850057154,488

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Gloucestershire West.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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