Gordon and Deeside: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Gordon and Deeside: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Colin Clark  (CON)
County/Area: Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate: 78,028
Turnout: 70.4%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,58746.6%
SNP18,08132.9%
LIB6,51811.9%
LAB4,7258.6%
CON Majority7,50613.7%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Gordon and Deeside : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Gordon and Deeside constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatScotlandAll GB
Party WinnerCONSNPCON
Economic Position4° Left14° Left
National Position14° Int17° Int1° Int
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health46%52%48%
UK Born90%93%88%
Good Education32%36%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC48%55%51%
Average Age47.648.748.5
ABC1 Class50%50%53%

Gordon and Deeside ranks #498 for "Leave", #405 for "Right" and #487 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gordon and Deeside: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Gordon and Deeside been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Gordon and Deeside

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and KincardineTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,877Gordon and Deeside3,206408892001,816006,322
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,677Gordon and Deeside3,372485632001,691006,180
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,592Gordon and Deeside83621710400689001,846
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,407Gordon and Deeside1,27013620300817002,426
AberdeenshireMearns11,651Kincardine and Angus North4,034790528002,947008,299
AberdeenshireNorth Kincardine11,072Kincardine and Angus North2,9261,498633002,830007,887
AberdeenshireStonehaven and Lower Deeside11,389Aberdeen South;
Kincardine and Angus North
4,405974433002,301008,113
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,368Gordon and Deeside1,03613130700923002,397
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,444Gordon and Deeside3,6201,066727002,739008,152
 Total72,477 24,7055,7054,4590016,7530051,622

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Banff and Buchan

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Banff and Buchan, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Banff and BuchanTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireBanff and District8,497Banff and Buchan2,449336344002,105005,234
AberdeenshireCentral Buchan9,958Banff and Buchan3,084491260002,299006,134
AberdeenshireEllon and District5 100002003
AberdeenshireFraserburgh and District11,712Banff and Buchan3,309811143002,952007,215
AberdeenshireMid Formartine864Banff and Buchan;
Gordon and Deeside
25764320018000533
AberdeenshirePeterhead North and Rattray11,345Banff and Buchan3,38396956002,580006,988
AberdeenshirePeterhead South and Cruden8,788Banff and Buchan2,45856135002,360005,414
AberdeenshireTroup7,505Banff and Buchan2,421458137001,607004,623
AberdeenshireTurriff and District8,927Banff and Buchan2,613247441002,198005,499
 Total67,601 19,9753,9371,4480016,2830041,643

The full details of these calculations are given on the Banff and Buchan seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Gordon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Gordon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: GordonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenBridge of Don12,258Aberdeen North3,4401,302709002,929008,380
AberdeenDyce / Bucksburn / Danestone11,244Aberdeen North2,3721,817483003,015007,687
AberdeenshireEast Garioch7,555Gordon and Deeside2,308452570001,835005,165
AberdeenshireEllon and District11,493Banff and Buchan2,8177421,147003,150007,856
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford8,258Gordon and Deeside2,826204815001,801005,646
AberdeenshireInverurie and District10,504Gordon and Deeside2,985932882002,381007,180
AberdeenshireMid Formartine11,534Aberdeen North;
Gordon and Deeside
3,601751805002,728007,885
AberdeenshireTurriff and District1 000000000
AberdeenshireWest Garioch5,684Gordon and Deeside1,510141818001,416003,885
 Total78,531 21,8596,3416,2290019,2550053,684

The full details of these calculations are given on the Gordon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Gordon and Deeside

The new seat of Gordon and Deeside is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Gordon and Deeside
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
AberdeenshireAboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside8,743Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine3,206408892001,816006,322
AberdeenshireBanchory and Mid Deeside8,563Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine3,372485632001,691006,180
AberdeenshireEast Garioch2,389Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine80317117200645001,791
AberdeenshireEast Garioch6,963Gordon2,341498502001,879005,220
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford3,440Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine1,1969929700765002,357
AberdeenshireHuntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford8,337Gordon2,900241721001,853005,715
AberdeenshireInverurie and District10,557Gordon2,985932882002,381007,180
AberdeenshireMid Formartine7,886Gordon2,507530544001,890005,471
AberdeenshireMid Formartine349Banff and Buchan1112324008400242
AberdeenshireWest Garioch3,415Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine94710141900870002,337
AberdeenshireWest Garioch5,764Gordon1,599171706001,469003,945
AberdeenshireWesthill and District11,622Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine3,6201,066727002,739008,152
 Total78,028 25,5874,7256,5180018,0820054,912

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Gordon and Deeside.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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