Great Grimsby North and Barton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Great Grimsby North and Barton: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Unknown (new seat)  (CON)
County/Area: Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 71,470
Turnout: 65.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,18953.6%
LAB18,61139.6%
UKIP1,7973.8%
LIB7891.7%
Green3810.8%
OTH2460.5%
CON Majority6,57814.0%

See overview of other seats in Yorks/Humber.

Great Grimsby North and Barton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Great Grimsby North and Barton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right3° Left
National Position16° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %70%58%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health51%46%48%
UK Born89%92%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job48%47%51%
High SEC49%46%51%
Average Age47.648.548.5
ABC1 Class46%49%53%

Great Grimsby North and Barton ranks #23 for "Leave", #200 for "Right" and #29 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Great Grimsby North and Barton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Great Grimsby North and Barton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Great Grimsby North and Barton

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Brigg and Goole

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Brigg and Goole, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Brigg and GooleTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
East Riding of YorkshireGoole North8,172Goole and Axholme2,2582,730198373140005,573
East Riding of YorkshireGoole South7,688Goole and Axholme2,1832,350206474300005,243
East Riding of YorkshireSnaith, Airmyn, Rawcliffe and Marshland7,411Goole and Axholme3,4781,35141163210005,054
North LincolnshireAxholme Central5,509Goole and Axholme2,7948164620810003,757
North LincolnshireAxholme North6,324Goole and Axholme2,6581,4353996860004,314
North LincolnshireAxholme South5,466Goole and Axholme2,8807113051550003,727
North LincolnshireBrigg and Wolds8,814Great Grimsby North and Barton4,0971,62776137730006,010
North LincolnshireBroughton and Appleby5,170Great Grimsby North and Barton2,2771,0217698540003,526
North LincolnshireBurringham and Gunness2,888Scunthorpe9099404043380001,970
North LincolnshireBurton upon Stather and Winterton8,627Scunthorpe3,6861,87584140990005,884
 Total66,069 27,22014,8568361,59555100045,058

The full details of these calculations are given on the Brigg and Goole seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Cleethorpes

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cleethorpes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: CleethorpesTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North East LincolnshireCroft Baker9,221Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,6872,7301983201050006,040
North East LincolnshireHaverstoe7,773Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes3,2531,412228188100005,091
North East LincolnshireHumberston and New Waltham8,466Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes3,6291,5737326190005,545
North East LincolnshireImmingham8,982Great Grimsby North and Barton2,7212,70221402360005,882
North East LincolnshireSidney Sussex9,983Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,8403,038234341870006,540
North East LincolnshireWaltham5,475Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,42588915211450003,585
North East LincolnshireWolds5,809Great Grimsby North and Barton2,5041,1235811090003,804
North LincolnshireBarton8,638Great Grimsby North and Barton3,4231,8701051291300005,657
North LincolnshireFerry8,699Great Grimsby North and Barton3,8381,58242157790005,698
 Total73,046 27,32016,9191,1112,02247000047,842

The full details of these calculations are given on the Cleethorpes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Great Grimsby

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Great Grimsby, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Great GrimsbyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North East LincolnshireEast Marsh8,248Great Grimsby North and Barton1,5532,682216246000484,745
North East LincolnshireFreshney6,881Great Grimsby North and Barton1,7391,99326173000273,958
North East LincolnshireHeneage8,450Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,0242,45884251000454,862
North East LincolnshirePark8,479Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,4302,028258131000314,878
North East LincolnshireScartho7,273Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes2,2621,583124186000304,185
North East LincolnshireSouth8,970Great Grimsby South and Cleethorpes1,9362,79076316000425,160
North East LincolnshireWest Marsh5,429Great Grimsby North and Barton1,0951,687581470001363,123
North East LincolnshireYarborough8,012Great Grimsby North and Barton1,9422,324111198000354,610
 Total61,742 14,98117,5459531,64800039435,521

The full details of these calculations are given on the Great Grimsby seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Great Grimsby North and Barton

The new seat of Great Grimsby North and Barton is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Great Grimsby North and Barton
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
North East LincolnshireEast Marsh6,268Great Grimsby1,5532,682216246000484,745
North East LincolnshireFreshney7,204Great Grimsby1,7391,99326173000273,958
North East LincolnshireImmingham8,529Cleethorpes2,7212,70221402360005,882
North East LincolnshireWest Marsh4,495Great Grimsby1,0951,687581470001363,123
North East LincolnshireWolds5,791Cleethorpes2,5041,1235811090003,804
North East LincolnshireYarborough8,521Great Grimsby1,9422,324111198000354,610
North LincolnshireBarton8,430Cleethorpes3,4231,8701051291300005,657
North LincolnshireBrigg and Wolds8,632Brigg and Goole4,0971,62776137730006,010
North LincolnshireBroughton and Appleby5,017Brigg and Goole2,2771,0217698540003,526
North LincolnshireFerry8,583Cleethorpes3,8381,58242157790005,698
 Total71,470 25,18918,6117891,7973810024647,013

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Great Grimsby North and Barton.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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