Great Yarmouth: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Great Yarmouth: Overview

 Projection: CON seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Brandon Lewis  (CON)
County/Area: Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 71,907
Turnout: 63.8%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON24,93854.4%
LAB16,43235.8%
UKIP2,7686.0%
LIB1,1222.4%
Green5841.3%
CON Majority8,50618.6%

See overview of other seats in Anglia.

Great Yarmouth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Great Yarmouth constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Right
National Position20° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %71%57%52%
British Identity24%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education32%37%39%
Good Job42%53%51%
High SEC47%53%51%
Average Age49.649.448.5
ABC1 Class42%55%53%

Great Yarmouth ranks #13 for "Leave", #173 for "Right" and #10 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Great Yarmouth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Great Yarmouth been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Great Yarmouth

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Great Yarmouth

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Great Yarmouth, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Great YarmouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Great YarmouthBradwell North4,719Great Yarmouth1,78390145165230002,917
Great YarmouthBradwell South and Hopton4,914Great Yarmouth1,82595056180280003,039
Great YarmouthCaister North3,333Great Yarmouth1,25663130115270002,059
Great YarmouthCaister South3,321Great Yarmouth1,18465362127280002,054
Great YarmouthCentral and Northgate6,125Great Yarmouth1,7181,69379262350003,787
Great YarmouthClaydon5,726Great Yarmouth1,5841,59963245490003,540
Great YarmouthEast Flegg3,552Great Yarmouth1,39253246184430002,197
Great YarmouthFleggburgh1,788Great Yarmouth8351803725280001,105
Great YarmouthGorleston4,151Great Yarmouth1,54778962139290002,566
Great YarmouthLothingland4,024Great Yarmouth1,59867247146250002,488
Great YarmouthMagdalen5,304Great Yarmouth1,4341,57358184300003,279
Great YarmouthNelson6,377Great Yarmouth1,6321,82294335590003,942
Great YarmouthOrmesby3,141Great Yarmouth1,26948660104230001,942
Great YarmouthSouthtown and Cobholm4,159Great Yarmouth1,0361,23466208280002,572
Great YarmouthSt Andrews3,648Great Yarmouth1,1009516792440002,254
Great YarmouthWest Flegg3,756Great Yarmouth1,59751664104420002,323
Great YarmouthYarmouth North3,368Great Yarmouth1,11174651153210002,082
 Total71,406 23,90115,9289872,76856200044,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Great Yarmouth seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Norfolk South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Norfolk South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Norfolk SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
South NorfolkBeck Vale1,865Norfolk South8792938801130001,373
South NorfolkBressingham and Burston2,388Norfolk South1,0725274101170001,757
South NorfolkBrooke2,255Norfolk South1,1024041430100001,659
South NorfolkBunwell2,329Norfolk South1,118511620230001,714
South NorfolkChedgrave and Thurton2,324Norfolk South9975781230120001,710
South NorfolkCringleford4,316Norwich South1,9578463330410003,177
South NorfolkDickleburgh2,382Norfolk South1,1504157201160001,753
South NorfolkDiss6,394Norfolk South2,6941,47533302020004,704
South NorfolkDitchingham and Broome1,983Norfolk South7105301900280001,458
South NorfolkEarsham2,074Norfolk South7795012350110001,526
South NorfolkEaston2,310Norfolk South1,0934761030260001,698
South NorfolkForncett2,285Norfolk South980498193090001,680
South NorfolkGillingham2,430Norfolk South9516471480420001,788
South NorfolkHarleston3,924Norfolk South1,7028672790390002,887
South NorfolkHempnall2,163Norfolk South1,129375540330001,591
South NorfolkHethersett4,794Norfolk South2,0571,1312840550003,527
South NorfolkLoddon2,210Norfolk South9365441210250001,626
South NorfolkMulbarton4,388Norfolk South1,96793618501400003,228
South NorfolkNewton Flotman2,247Norfolk South9315741380100001,653
South NorfolkOld Costessey6,053Norwich South1,8072,0175780520004,454
South NorfolkPoringland with the Framinghams4,063Norfolk South1,9487522670220002,989
South NorfolkRockland2,397Norfolk South1,0025601700310001,763
South NorfolkRoydon2,068Norfolk South97345689040001,522
South NorfolkScole1,984Norfolk South975314760940001,459
South NorfolkStoke Holy Cross2,424Norfolk South84452230001170001,783
South NorfolkStratton4,669Norfolk South1,9061,19818701430003,434
South NorfolkTasburgh2,032Norfolk South8844481460170001,495
South NorfolkThurlton2,308Great Yarmouth1,0375041350220001,698
 Total83,059 35,58018,8995,07301,55400061,106

The full details of these calculations are given on the Norfolk South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Great Yarmouth

The new seat of Great Yarmouth is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Great Yarmouth
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
NAT
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
Great YarmouthBradwell North5,191Great Yarmouth1,78390145165230002,917
Great YarmouthBradwell South and Hopton5,242Great Yarmouth1,82595056180280003,039
Great YarmouthCaister North3,654Great Yarmouth1,25663130115270002,059
Great YarmouthCaister South3,710Great Yarmouth1,18465362127280002,054
Great YarmouthCentral and Northgate4,967Great Yarmouth1,7181,69379262350003,787
Great YarmouthClaydon5,414Great Yarmouth1,5841,59963245490003,540
Great YarmouthEast Flegg3,950Great Yarmouth1,39253246184430002,197
Great YarmouthFleggburgh2,042Great Yarmouth8351803725280001,105
Great YarmouthGorleston3,887Great Yarmouth1,54778962139290002,566
Great YarmouthLothingland4,262Great Yarmouth1,59867247146250002,488
Great YarmouthMagdalen5,130Great Yarmouth1,4341,57358184300003,279
Great YarmouthNelson4,616Great Yarmouth1,6321,82294335590003,942
Great YarmouthOrmesby3,541Great Yarmouth1,26948660104230001,942
Great YarmouthSouthtown and Cobholm3,256Great Yarmouth1,0361,23466208280002,572
Great YarmouthSt Andrews3,316Great Yarmouth1,1009516792440002,254
Great YarmouthWest Flegg4,032Great Yarmouth1,59751664104420002,323
Great YarmouthYarmouth North3,481Great Yarmouth1,11174651153210002,082
South NorfolkThurlton2,216Norfolk South1,0375041350220001,698
 Total71,907 24,93816,4321,1222,76858400045,844

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Great Yarmouth.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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