Gwynedd: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Gwynedd: Overview

 Projection: Plaid seat 

Implied MP at 2017: Liz Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area: Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate: 76,259
Turnout: 70.3%

 Implied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
Plaid22,06941.2%
LAB14,99428.0%
CON14,70127.4%
LIB1,2082.3%
UKIP6131.1%
Plaid Majority7,07513.2%

See overview of other seats in Wales.

Gwynedd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Gwynedd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerPlaidLABCON
Economic Position14° Left10° Left
National Position5° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %45%53%52%
British Identity29%26%29%
Good Health59%47%48%
UK Born94%95%88%
Good Education42%36%39%
Good Job54%46%51%
High SEC67%46%51%
Average Age49.349.648.5
ABC1 Class57%47%53%

Gwynedd ranks #452 for "Leave", #540 for "Right" and #442 for "National" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Gwynedd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Gwynedd been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Gwynedd

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Aberconwy

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberconwy, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: AberconwyTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed988Gwynedd336176260016300701
ConwyBryn1,469Anglesey and Bangor1936482800175001,044
ConwyCaerhun1,599Gwynedd6843281200111001,135
ConwyCapelulo1,191Anglesey and Bangor41236922004400847
ConwyConwy3,269Conwy and Colwyn9491,1861400174002,323
ConwyCraig-y-Don2,748Conwy and Colwyn1,0536753400190001,952
ConwyCrwst1,706Gwynedd4334648700228001,212
ConwyDeganwy3,154Conwy and Colwyn1,468656540063002,241
ConwyEglwysbach1,219Gwynedd31322250032600866
ConwyGogarth3,088Conwy and Colwyn1,0619199600117002,193
ConwyGower960Gwynedd20221630026100682
ConwyLlansanffraid1,768Conwy and Colwyn697502120045001,256
ConwyMarl3,109Conwy and Colwyn90986930900121002,208
ConwyMostyn (Conwy)2,811Conwy and Colwyn870992750059001,996
ConwyPandy1,454Anglesey and Bangor2716012300138001,033
ConwyPant-yr-afon / Penmaenan2,304Anglesey and Bangor4611,088140074001,637
ConwyPenrhyn3,927Conwy and Colwyn1,698956560081002,791
ConwyPensarn2,269Conwy and Colwyn647712100252001,612
ConwyTrefriw996Gwynedd241346170010300707
ConwyTudno4,036Conwy and Colwyn1,1641,5643800102002,868
ConwyUwch Conwy1,185Gwynedd272212150034300842
 Total45,250 14,33413,701941003,1700032,146

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberconwy seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Arfon

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Arfon, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: ArfonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddArllechwedd948Anglesey and Bangor9413850040900646
GwyneddBethel972Gwynedd5133310027900664
GwyneddBontnewydd785Gwynedd10117010026300535
GwyneddCadnant1,407Gwynedd9143200043600959
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo675Gwynedd47290120011100460
GwyneddDeiniol1,310Anglesey and Bangor132417920025200893
GwyneddDeiniolen1,316Gwynedd155375220034500897
GwyneddDewi1,293Anglesey and Bangor132361240036500882
GwyneddGarth681Anglesey and Bangor11719590014300464
GwyneddGerlan1,626Anglesey and Bangor120421700560001,108
GwyneddGlyder1,186Anglesey and Bangor1472271100032600810
GwyneddGroeslon1,178Gwynedd21434430024300804
GwyneddHendre1,017Anglesey and Bangor72321260027400693
GwyneddHirael1,137Anglesey and Bangor159481130012300776
GwyneddLlanberis1,392Gwynedd268440140022700949
GwyneddLlanllyfni863Gwynedd8921010028900589
GwyneddLlanrug1,314Gwynedd9622110057800896
GwyneddLlanwnda1,381Gwynedd18040600035600942
GwyneddMarchog1,757Anglesey and Bangor241719000237001,197
GwyneddMenai (Bangor)2,812Anglesey and Bangor41474021300551001,918
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,500Gwynedd1653601600482001,023
GwyneddOgwen1,609Anglesey and Bangor84284200727001,097
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,630Gwynedd138505000467001,110
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,168Gwynedd79190190050700795
GwyneddPentir1,680Anglesey and Bangor2314302100464001,146
GwyneddPenygroes1,227Gwynedd14626250042300836
GwyneddSeiont2,035Gwynedd293690000405001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,283Gwynedd18643500025300874
GwyneddTregarth and Mynydd Llandygai1,510Anglesey and Bangor894812800431001,029
GwyneddWaunfawr1,130Gwynedd15926800034400771
GwyneddY Felinheli1,545Anglesey and Bangor125278300647001,053
 Total41,367 4,61511,4246480011,5170028,204

The full details of these calculations are given on the Arfon seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Clwyd West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Clwyd West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Clwyd WestTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyAbergele Pensarn1,936Conwy and Colwyn45783570051001,350
ConwyBetws yn Rhos1,663Conwy and Colwyn488493200178001,161
ConwyColwyn3,623Conwy and Colwyn1,15399315800225002,529
ConwyEirias2,807Conwy and Colwyn9478248300104001,958
ConwyGele3,638Conwy and Colwyn1,3179554100226002,539
ConwyGlyn3,412Conwy and Colwyn7941,1792800380002,381
ConwyKinmel Bay4,807Conwy and Colwyn1,7821,50630064003,355
ConwyLlanddulas1,208Conwy and Colwyn34843326003600843
ConwyLlandrillo yn Rhos5,981Conwy and Colwyn2,3901,37212100290004,173
ConwyLlangernyw1,138Gwynedd28019420031700793
ConwyLlansannan1,480Gwynedd315294500419001,033
ConwyLlysfaen2,160Conwy and Colwyn64279310072001,508
ConwyMochdre1,520Conwy and Colwyn37462910057001,061
ConwyPentre Mawr2,777Conwy and Colwyn1,1745751020087001,938
ConwyRhiw5,238Conwy and Colwyn1,9051,27430200173003,654
ConwyTowyn1,880Conwy and Colwyn95032270034001,313
ConwyUwchaled1,098Gwynedd3303370009900766
DenbighshireEfenechtyd1,312Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North342222120034000916
DenbighshireLlanarmon-yn-Ial / Llandegla1,903Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North811449310037001,328
DenbighshireLlanbedr Dyffryn Clwyd / Llangynhafal1,142Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North4992501004600796
DenbighshireLlanfair Dyffryn Clwyd / Gwyddelwern1,789Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5705352900115001,249
DenbighshireLlanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1,469Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North5193331400159001,025
DenbighshireRuthin4,281Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North1,1511,30711800411002,987
 Total58,262 19,53816,1041,094003,9200040,656

The full details of these calculations are given on the Clwyd West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Dwyfor Meirionnydd

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dwyfor Meirionnydd, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dwyfor MeirionnyddTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
GwyneddAberdaron690Gwynedd12878105024600467
GwyneddAberdovey921Gwynedd311169411309100625
GwyneddAbererch981Gwynedd2511681219021600666
GwyneddAbermaw1,848Gwynedd27035861180548001,255
GwyneddAbersoch575Gwynedd10539114023200391
GwyneddBala1,447Gwynedd13583137074500983
GwyneddBotwnnog714Gwynedd14577217023500485
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,385Gwynedd76174220066900941
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,066Gwynedd20665217042500724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel702Gwynedd201101158015200477
GwyneddClynnog729Gwynedd146139518018700495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy988Gwynedd2682051626015500670
GwyneddCriccieth1,276Gwynedd3761842713026500865
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen813Gwynedd8013799031800553
GwyneddDolbenmaen887Gwynedd67663209014100603
GwyneddDolgellau North887Gwynedd1851151912027100602
GwyneddDolgellau South1,081Gwynedd19317577035200734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,117Gwynedd3572112423014400759
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan909Gwynedd213125714025800617
GwyneddHarlech1,467Gwynedd2261912624052800995
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,230Gwynedd2632831822024900835
GwyneddLlanbedr794Gwynedd1799785025000539
GwyneddLlanbedrog721Gwynedd1688747022400490
GwyneddLlandderfel1,083Gwynedd1334839054400737
GwyneddLlanengan887Gwynedd233991616023900603
GwyneddLlangelynin1,449Gwynedd4702564647016600985
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn644Gwynedd743823032000437
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,533Gwynedd2311904130603001,041
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn913Gwynedd1708154035900619
GwyneddNefyn1,004Gwynedd1981691628027000681
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,887Gwynedd22529412100741001,282
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,300Gwynedd2622401115035600884
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,265Gwynedd199731112056500860
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog914Gwynedd2081391810024500620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,598Gwynedd32524513190483001,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,375Gwynedd277227822040000934
GwyneddTeigl1,373Gwynedd10513054068900933
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,144Gwynedd2982461127019500777
GwyneddTudweiliog714Gwynedd16190157021100484
GwyneddTywyn2,388Gwynedd71938258600404001,623
 Total44,699 8,8376,274941613013,6910030,356

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dwyfor Meirionnydd seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Gwynedd

The new seat of Gwynedd is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Gwynedd
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
ConwyBetws-y-Coed932Aberconwy336176260016300701
ConwyCaerhun1,609Aberconwy6843281200111001,135
ConwyCrwst1,583Aberconwy4334648700228001,212
ConwyEglwysbach1,195Aberconwy31322250032600866
ConwyGower887Aberconwy20221630026100682
ConwyLlangernyw1,147Clwyd West28019420031700793
ConwyLlansannan1,470Clwyd West315294500419001,033
ConwyTrefriw1,022Aberconwy241346170010300707
ConwyUwch Conwy1,230Aberconwy272212150034300842
ConwyUwchaled1,124Clwyd West3303370009900766
GwyneddAberdaron654Dwyfor Meirionnydd12878105024600467
GwyneddAberdovey873Dwyfor Meirionnydd311169411309100625
GwyneddAbererch930Dwyfor Meirionnydd2511681219021600666
GwyneddAbermaw1,751Dwyfor Meirionnydd27035861180548001,255
GwyneddAbersoch545Dwyfor Meirionnydd10539114023200391
GwyneddBala1,371Dwyfor Meirionnydd13583137074500983
GwyneddBethel1,020Arfon5133310027900664
GwyneddBontnewydd824Arfon10117010026300535
GwyneddBotwnnog677Dwyfor Meirionnydd14577217023500485
GwyneddBowydd and Rhiw1,312Dwyfor Meirionnydd76174220066900941
GwyneddBrithdir and Llanfachreth / Ganllwyd / Llanelltyd1,010Dwyfor Meirionnydd20665217042500724
GwyneddBryn-crug / Llanfihangel665Dwyfor Meirionnydd201101158015200477
GwyneddCadnant1,438Arfon9143200043600959
GwyneddClynnog691Dwyfor Meirionnydd146139518018700495
GwyneddCorris / Mawddwy936Dwyfor Meirionnydd2682051626015500670
GwyneddCriccieth1,209Dwyfor Meirionnydd3761842713026500865
GwyneddCwm-y-Glo710Arfon47290120011100460
GwyneddDeiniolen1,263Arfon155375220034500897
GwyneddDiffwys and Maenofferen770Dwyfor Meirionnydd8013799031800553
GwyneddDolbenmaen840Dwyfor Meirionnydd67663209014100603
GwyneddDolgellau North840Dwyfor Meirionnydd1851151912027100602
GwyneddDolgellau South1,024Dwyfor Meirionnydd19317577035200734
GwyneddDyffryn Ardudwy1,058Dwyfor Meirionnydd3572112423014400759
GwyneddEfail-newydd / Buan861Dwyfor Meirionnydd213125714025800617
GwyneddGroeslon1,246Arfon21434430024300804
GwyneddHarlech1,390Dwyfor Meirionnydd2261912624052800995
GwyneddLlanaelhaearn1,165Dwyfor Meirionnydd2632831822024900835
GwyneddLlanbedr752Dwyfor Meirionnydd1799785025000539
GwyneddLlanbedrog683Dwyfor Meirionnydd1688747022400490
GwyneddLlanberis1,445Arfon268440140022700949
GwyneddLlandderfel1,026Dwyfor Meirionnydd1334839054400737
GwyneddLlanengan840Dwyfor Meirionnydd233991616023900603
GwyneddLlangelynin1,373Dwyfor Meirionnydd4702564647016600985
GwyneddLlanllyfni892Arfon8921010028900589
GwyneddLlanrug1,289Arfon9622110057800896
GwyneddLlanuwchllyn610Dwyfor Meirionnydd743823032000437
GwyneddLlanwnda1,428Arfon18040600035600942
GwyneddLlanystumdwy1,453Dwyfor Meirionnydd2311904130603001,041
GwyneddMenai (Caernarfon)1,671Arfon1653601600482001,023
GwyneddMorfa Nefyn865Dwyfor Meirionnydd1708154035900619
GwyneddNefyn951Dwyfor Meirionnydd1981691628027000681
GwyneddPeblig (Caernarfon)1,344Arfon138505000467001,110
GwyneddPenisarwaun1,293Arfon79190190050700795
GwyneddPenrhyndeudraeth1,788Dwyfor Meirionnydd22529412100741001,282
GwyneddPenygroes1,289Arfon14626250042300836
GwyneddPorthmadog East1,232Dwyfor Meirionnydd2622401115035600884
GwyneddPorthmadog West1,199Dwyfor Meirionnydd199731112056500860
GwyneddPorthmadog-Tremadog866Dwyfor Meirionnydd2081391810024500620
GwyneddPwllheli North1,514Dwyfor Meirionnydd32524513190483001,085
GwyneddPwllheli South1,303Dwyfor Meirionnydd277227822040000934
GwyneddSeiont2,079Arfon293690000405001,388
GwyneddTalysarn1,276Arfon18643500025300874
GwyneddTeigl1,301Dwyfor Meirionnydd10513054068900933
GwyneddTrawsfynydd1,084Dwyfor Meirionnydd2982461127019500777
GwyneddTudweiliog677Dwyfor Meirionnydd16190157021100484
GwyneddTywyn2,263Dwyfor Meirionnydd71938258600404001,623
GwyneddWaunfawr1,201Arfon15926800034400771
 Total76,259 14,70114,9941,208613022,0690053,585

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Gwynedd.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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